Beyond Feelings

CHAPTER 18 Forming a Judgment
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beliefs.” 3 And Professor John Esposito observed that “the First Amend-ment
right doesn’t mean you should automatically say everything you want to.” 4
What made these views balanced is that they were made without denying the importance
of freedom of speech and the outrageousness of Khomeini’s threat.
Consider another issue—the question of building self-esteem in people.
For more than twenty years, writers of self-improvement books have
emphasized the importance of self-esteem, particularly in young children.
So great has been this emphasis that many people assume that success or
failure in school and later life is largely a reflection of this factor. Almost
any effort to make people feel good about themselves is applauded.
But Barbara Lerner, a psychologist and attorney, was able to resist the
powerful lure of the prevailing view and examine self-esteem critically.
Her reward was the insight that self-esteem is not always good, that in
some cases it can be an obstacle to achievement. There is a difference, she
notes, between “earned” self-esteem and “feel-good-now” self-esteem.
The former can lead to achievement and even excellence, whereas the latter
promotes complacency and, ultimately, incompetence. 5
To achieve a balanced view of the issues you address, you must be
willing to look for the neglected side of the issue and, when there is good
reason to do so, to challenge the prevailing view.
DEAL WITH PROBABILITY
Despite our best efforts to investigate issues, sometimes we cannot accumulate
sufficient evidence to arrive at a judgment with certainty. This is
especially true with controversial issues. At such times, the irresponsible
often raise their voices, choose more forceful words, and pretend certainty.
That is a grave mistake, first because the pretense seldom fools good
thinkers, but, more important, because it is intellectually dishonest.
As long as we have made a sincere effort to gain the evidence necessary
to achieve certainty and are not deliberately choosing to ride the
fence, there is no shame in admitting, “I cannot say for certain what the
correct judgment is in this situation.” On the contrary, there is virtue in
doing so. Yet such situations demand one further obligation of responsible
thinkers. It is to explain, if possible, what judgment probability
favors—that is, what judgment the evidence suggests, as opposed to
proves, is correct.
The evidence, for example, may be insufficient to allow us say with
certainty that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer or that viewing television
violence definitely harms people. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence
on both issues to warrant a judgment about probable cause–effect
relationships.
Whenever you cannot achieve certainty, focus on probability.