THORIUM AS AN ENERGY SOURCE - Opportunities for Norway ...

Thorium as an Energy Source - Opportunities for Norway
2. INTRODUCTION
Electricity has been generated for the purpose of powering human technologies since 1881.
Electricity consumption and demand has increased continuously as a result of population growth
and industrial development as well as increasing wealth. Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and energy growth has happened partially in most OECD countries, but not yet in the vast
developing countries, i.e. China, India and Russia. Growth of energy consumption and demand
will be the major challenge facing mankind in this century.
As an introduction to this report the present situation concerning the world energy and electricity
balances, greenhouse gas emissions, fossil and nuclear fuel resources as well as a reference
scenario describing projections of energy demand and carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in the next
25 years are presented.
2.1 The World Energy Situation
There is a prevailing belief that the current model for the world’s energy policy is not sustainable.
The major reasons are well known: rising greenhouse gas emissions and their negative impact on
climate, as well as concerns regarding the security of energy supply at affordable prices in the
context of increasing needs of energy, notably in developing countries that are enjoying rapid
economic growth.
There is no magical solution to avoid what Claude Mandil, the former Executive Director of the
International Energy Agency (IEA), referred to as the “dirty, insecure and expensive” energy
future that current trends are preparing for us. If better energy efficiency and energy savings are
the first part of the solution, then both the development of cleaner fossil fuel technologies (with
carbon capture and sequestration) and increased uses of renewable and nuclear energy are the
second part.
According to the IEA reference scenario [1], which assumes that governments around the world
maintain current policies, the world’s primary energy demand needs are projected to grow by 55
% between 2005 and 2030 at an average rate of 1.8 % per year. Fossil fuels remain the dominant
source of primary energy, accounting for 84 % of the overall increase in demand. Oil remains the
single largest fuel though its share in global demand falls from 35 % to 32 %. Oil demand reaches
116 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, to compare to 84 million bpd in 2006. In line with the
spectacular growth of the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute
terms, jumping by 73 % between 2005 and 2030, and pushing its share of total energy demand up
from 25 % to 28 %. Most of the increase in coal use arises in China and India. The share of
natural gas increases more modestly, from 21 % to 22 %. Some $22 trillion of investment in
supply infrastructure is needed to meet projected global demand. Mobilising all this investment
will be challenging.
Developing countries, whose economies and populations are growing fastest, contribute 74 % of
the increase in global primary energy use in this scenario. China and India alone account for 45 %
of this increase. OECD countries account for one-fifth and the transition economies the remaining
6 %. In aggregate, developing countries make up 47 % of the global energy market in 2015 and
more than half in 2030, compared with only 41 % today.
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