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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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National Association of Development
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Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
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GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
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Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table A.5.4. Projected Total Fatali
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Table A.6.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table A.6.4. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T