Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Ratios of Men to Women, Total United States, Compared with the 1995 Ratios Gender ratio, a Gender Gender Gender Gender Gender Gender ratio, ratio, ratio, ratio, ratio, ratio, 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 All ages 95.4 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.9 96 All elderly 69.0 70.4 72.4 75.0 78.1 80.8 82.9 Ages 65-74 80.1 82.2 84.4 86.3 87.8 89.1 90.5 Ages 75-84 63.5 66.9 69.9 73.3 77.0 80.2 83.0 Ages 85+ 38.9 40.5 43.0 45.4 47.5 49.6 52.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.htmland www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natproj.html . aGender ratio is defined as the number of males per 100 females. 3.1.3 By Economic Status Personal income/economic status is an extremely important factor for the elderly. For example, medical expenses are generally greater for the elderly than they are for the average person under age 65. In addition, a fixed income may not keep up with the general rate of inflation. A major source of income for the elderly is Social Security, as reported by 91% of older persons (Administration on Aging, 1999). Many older persons continue employment, about half of which is part-time work. In the transportation equation, elderly persons find that the costs of owning an automobile may be too high or that they must limit the number of trips they take to save on the costs of transportation. The U.S. Census Bureau provides historical data on average annual incomes, for different age groups. The median income for all households in the United States in 1995, for all ages, was $34,076, and for the same time period, the median income for the elderly (i.e., 65 and over) was $19,096. Table 3.3 presents historical data on income levels of the elderly in comparison with the income level of “all households.” GM Project G.6 3 - 4 October 2000
Table 3.3. Median Household Income by Type of Household for Selected Years (1996 Dollars) 1969 1979 1983 1989 1993 1996 All households $33,072 $34,666 $32,941 $36,598 $33,660 $35,172 Married-couple, no children, householder 65+ Including wife’s income $18,553 $23,724 $27,642 $29,230 $28,263 $29,210 Excluding wife’s income $14,340 $15,675 $18,116 $18,982 $18,710 $19,174 One-person household, male 65+ $8,936 $11,227 $13,615 $14,288 $14,821 $14,586 One-person household, female 65+ $7,025 $9,382 $10,926 $11,388 $10,823 $11,454 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Changes in Median Household Income,” from Table 4, at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/mednhhld/t4.html . The U.S. Census Bureau also provides historical mean incomes by age-gender groupings. Table 3.4 shows mean income for individuals in two elderly age categories for selected years. Year Table 3.4. Mean Income for the Elderly, by Gender (1998 Dollars) a Mean income in 1969 Mean income in 1979 Mean income in 1983 Mean income in 1989 Mean income in 1993 Mean income in 1996 Mean income in 1998 All Males, 65+ $17,814 $19,719 NA $24,779 $24,138 $25,247 $27,997 All Females, 65+ $8,977 $11,331 $13,012 $14,515 $13,413 $14,480 $15,419 Males, 65-74 NA NA NA $27,305 $25,870 $27,891 $30,441 Females, 65-74 NA NA NA $15,045 $14,090 $15,236 $16,043 Males, 75+ NA NA NA $20,091 $21,262 $21,226 $24,547 Females, 75+ NA NA NA $13,791 $12,545 $13,608 $14,729 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables, from Table P-9, at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/p09.html . a NA = not available. The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides data on total personal income, by state, for all ages and makes projections for future income. However, these projections are for total personal income and are not provided by age-gender categories. The U.S. Census Bureau does not make income projections. Full retirement age in the year 2000 is 65; however, beginning in 2003, full retirement age gradually increases to age 67 for those born in 1960 or later. It is possible GM Project G.6 3 - 5 October 2000
Page 1: ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
Page 4 and 5: 4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
Page 6 and 7: GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
Page 10 and 11: Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
Page 12 and 13: NASS National Automotive Sampling S
Page 14 and 15: Over the past century, the numbers
Page 16 and 17: Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
Page 18 and 19: Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
Page 20 and 21: 1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
Page 22 and 23: of existing data bases, including h
Page 24 and 25: various data sources and their abil
Page 26 and 27: Finally, data sets should contain,
Page 28 and 29: • Examine data sources to determi
Page 30 and 31: health care, resulting in longer li
Page 34 and 35: that individuals will not retire at
Page 36 and 37: analysis. Distribution of the elder
Page 38 and 39: More elderly people live in rural a
Page 40 and 41: assessments of health status) does
Page 42 and 43: 3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
Page 44 and 45: current vision screening tests at d
Page 46 and 47: Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
Page 48 and 49: 3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
Page 50 and 51: Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
Page 52 and 53: tourist services, and “smart” s
Page 54 and 55: Specific highway enhancements to re
Page 56 and 57: 3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
Page 58 and 59: • As age increased, being struck
Page 60 and 61: men using mid-1990s data, this gend
Page 62 and 63: major contributing factor as was dr
Page 64 and 65: Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
Page 66 and 67: cohort behavior and conditions for
Page 68 and 69: 4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
Page 70 and 71: The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
Page 72 and 73: these data and weights. Because of
Page 74 and 75: U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
Page 76 and 77: 5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
Page 78 and 79: or acquisition costs, of the goods
Page 80 and 81: institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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percentages of people driving, and
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9.1.1 Computations The projection o
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Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
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Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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material, dampening effect on drive
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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
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Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
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9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
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Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
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Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
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Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
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Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
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Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
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10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
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similarly relied on a regression mo
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trend of fatal crashes in the futur
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The base of exposure to crash risk
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population, and a slightly smaller
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Second, improvements in health stat
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projections of VMT may be high. Our
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of entry/exit, safety, security, et
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Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
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College of Commerce and Business Ad
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National Association of Development
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Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
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GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
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Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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