Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to Account for Differences Between DRI and NPTS Income Data Our income projections into the year 2025 are taken from DRI estimates. These DRI estimates include 1995 values as well. The 1995 NPTS averages are anywhere from one and a half to two and a half times those of the DRI estimates. Thus, in our “driver” and crash rate projections, we adjusted the DRI income estimates by a factor associated with the differences in the two sources’ 1995 estimates by gender and age. These adjustment factors (ratio of average 1995 NPTS income to 1995 DRI estimates) are found in Table B.7 below. Table B.7. Ratio of Average 1995 NPTS Income to 1995 DRI Estimates, by Gender and Age Men Women 65-69 1.566251 2.748448 70-74 1.633565 2.592415 75-79 1.684624 2.269106 80-84 1.815173 2.124292 85+ 1.783454 1.916215 B.2.2 Health Index (The Modified Health Factor Score) Our projections reflect no change in the health index scores in the future. For explanation of how these scores were calculated, see Section 5.1. B.2.3 Employment Status Our employment status projections are based on projections to 2008 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These gender and age specific projection trends were then extrapolated into the year 2025, and can be seen in Table B.8. GM Project G.6 B - 10 October 2000
Table B.8. Employment Status Projections as a Percent of Population Male 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 27.0% 28.6% 30.4% 32.1% 33.9% 35.7% 37.4% 70-74 16.6% 16.6% 17.2% 17.9% 18.6% 19.2% 19.9% 75-79 7.4% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 80-84 7.4% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 85+ 7.4% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% Female 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 17.5% 17.8% 18.4% 19.0% 19.6% 20.2% 20.8% 70-74 5.3% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 75-79 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 80-84 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 85+ 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% B.2.4 Other Driver We maintained 1995 levels of the other driver variable taken from NPTS data in our projections. For these 1995 levels, see Table B.9. Table B.9. Other Driver Projections as a Percent of Population 1995 Values Male Female 65-69 74.0% 57.0% 70-74 71.0% 51.0% 75-79 56.0% 38.0% 80-84 59.0% 28.0% 85+ 37.0% 23.0% GM Project G.6 B - 11 October 2000
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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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percentages of people driving, and
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9.1.1 Computations The projection o
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Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
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Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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material, dampening effect on drive
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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
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Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
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9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
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Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
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Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
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Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
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Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
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Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
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10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
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similarly relied on a regression mo
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trend of fatal crashes in the futur
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The base of exposure to crash risk
Page 164 and 165: population, and a slightly smaller
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Page 168 and 169: projections of VMT may be high. Our
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Page 172 and 173: Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
Page 174 and 175: College of Commerce and Business Ad
Page 176 and 177: National Association of Development
Page 178 and 179: Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
Page 180 and 181: GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
Page 182 and 183: Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
Page 184 and 185: Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
Page 186 and 187: Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
Page 188 and 189: Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
Page 190 and 191: Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 192 and 193: Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 194 and 195: Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 196 and 197: Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 198 and 199: Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
Page 206 and 207: Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 208 and 209: Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 210 and 211: B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
Page 212 and 213: Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
Page 216 and 217: B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
Page 218 and 219: C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
Page 220: GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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