Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025
Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025
Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025
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9.1.2 Contributions to Driver <strong>Fatalities</strong><br />
The dampen<strong>in</strong>g effect on projected fatalities of fall<strong>in</strong>g crash risk over time simply<br />
yields a negative contribution to the risk projection, which means that if risk were flat-l<strong>in</strong>ed,<br />
the projected fatalities would be larger than they are when the decrease <strong>in</strong> crash risk is<br />
factored <strong>in</strong>to the projection. This negative contribution of crash risk also means that, while<br />
the sum of the component contributions to driver fatalities will always be 1, the components<br />
themselves have the potential of atta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g values greater than one, with the sum of the positive<br />
terms, or more simply, those components (VMT, driver, and population) whose changes over<br />
time <strong>in</strong>crease the number of fatalities will always sum to a value greater than one.<br />
As we can observe <strong>in</strong> Figure 9.1, by far the largest contributor to the growth <strong>in</strong> male<br />
driver fatalities is population. This should come as no great surprise given that the elderly<br />
male non-<strong>in</strong>stitutionalized population is expected to double over the projected time frame,<br />
while VMT and percentages of people who drive are projected to <strong>in</strong>crease at less substantial<br />
rates. The driver projections show up as a mere blip for the younger age groups simply<br />
because these groups already have driver rates near 100%. As such, no substantial <strong>in</strong>creases<br />
<strong>in</strong> these rates were possible when project<strong>in</strong>g, mean<strong>in</strong>g that any <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> fatalities over the<br />
projected time frame cannot be attributed <strong>in</strong> great part to an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the percent of the<br />
male population that drives. This effect lessens as we move to the oldest age groups. VMT<br />
is somewhat similar to driver, with the younger groups already approach<strong>in</strong>g a theoretical limit<br />
on the feasible amount of annual VMT, translat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to a smaller relative contribution to<br />
fatalities.<br />
The relative component contributions to female driver fatalities vary greatly from<br />
those of male fatalities. Non-<strong>in</strong>stitutionalized female population is expected to <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
dramatically, but it is not expected to double as it is for men. In addition, projections of VMT<br />
and percentage of the population that drives are slightly higher for women then for men when<br />
compar<strong>in</strong>g the ratio of <strong>2025</strong> projections to 1995 observed values. As one can see <strong>in</strong><br />
GM Project G.6 9 - 3<br />
October <strong>2000</strong>