Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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current vision screening tests at drivers licensing sites are insufficient to screen for the useful field of vision (Ball, 1997, pp. 42-47). In addition to the UFOV being an assessment tool, it may also be an effective training tool. Practice with the UFOV improved the reaction time, expanded the size of the attentional field, and seemed to improve driving ability in a test conducted in 1998 (Roenker, Cissell, and Ball, ND). However, there are no statistics on the long-term effect of UFOV training on driving fitness. Older driver training programs are being developed to assist older drivers with age-related problems. Three such programs are the 55 Alive/Mature Driving program, sponsored by the AARP, Safe Driving for Mature Operators, sponsored by the American Automobile Association (AAA), and Coaching Mature Drivers, sponsored by the National Safety Council (NSC). Evaluations of these retraining programs have indicated that they provide valuable educational information; however, evaluations have provided inconclusive evidence that these training courses actually decrease crashes. It is almost certain that assessment and, possibly, retraining of the burgeoning population of the elderly in the next two to three decades will be necessary. Staplin and Hunt (1999) conducted research to identify driver assessment tools, remediation techniques and procedures, and licensing. They documented a wide range of remedial treatments, including adaptive equipment, retraining, physical therapies and exercise programs, instruction in driving skills, and other tests (p. 37). 3.2.5 Better Health, Extended Life Spans, Later Retirement, and Greater Mobility Elderly drivers are taking more trips and driving more miles than they did in the past. They are adapting their travel patterns as needed to maintain an active, social lifestyle. One of the primary fears of the elderly, above personal security or health concerns, is losing mobility, expressed as loss of the ability to drive (Staplin and Hunt, 1999, p. 38). GM Project G.6 3 - 16 October 2000
Although advancing age brings encroaching frailty, older people are actually improving their functional capabilities. The age for full retirement has been extended, but seniors can still expect to spend many active years as retirees. As healthy, energetic participants in society, the elderly will experience expanded transportation needs as their demand for greater mobility grows. 3.3 TRANSPORTATION AND MOBILITY The 21st century will see the American population aging. Will greater numbers of persons over 65 be driving, and will the elderly be driving further? What kind of changes will we see in driving habits, travel patterns, and the use of alternative transportation? How will the use of “smart” cars and “smart” highways impact the safety and mobility of the elderly? 3.3.1 Numbers of Drivers According to Table DL-220 from Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, the number of drivers’ licenses issued to persons over age 60 increased from 27,838,000 in 1985 to 34,013,000 in 1995, a 22% increase (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1997B). The greatest increase in licenses issued was in the age group of 70 and over – an increase of almost 50%! Figure 3.5 shows the growth of the number of elderly persons holding drivers licenses between 1963 and 1995. GM Project G.6 3 - 17 October 2000
Page 1: ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
Page 4 and 5: 4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
Page 6 and 7: GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
Page 10 and 11: Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
Page 12 and 13: NASS National Automotive Sampling S
Page 14 and 15: Over the past century, the numbers
Page 16 and 17: Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
Page 18 and 19: Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
Page 20 and 21: 1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
Page 22 and 23: of existing data bases, including h
Page 24 and 25: various data sources and their abil
Page 26 and 27: Finally, data sets should contain,
Page 28 and 29: • Examine data sources to determi
Page 30 and 31: health care, resulting in longer li
Page 32 and 33: Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
Page 34 and 35: that individuals will not retire at
Page 36 and 37: analysis. Distribution of the elder
Page 38 and 39: More elderly people live in rural a
Page 40 and 41: assessments of health status) does
Page 42 and 43: 3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
Page 46 and 47: Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
Page 48 and 49: 3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
Page 50 and 51: Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
Page 52 and 53: tourist services, and “smart” s
Page 54 and 55: Specific highway enhancements to re
Page 56 and 57: 3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
Page 58 and 59: • As age increased, being struck
Page 60 and 61: men using mid-1990s data, this gend
Page 62 and 63: major contributing factor as was dr
Page 64 and 65: Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
Page 66 and 67: cohort behavior and conditions for
Page 68 and 69: 4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
Page 70 and 71: The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
Page 72 and 73: these data and weights. Because of
Page 74 and 75: U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
Page 76 and 77: 5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
Page 78 and 79: or acquisition costs, of the goods
Page 80 and 81: institutionalized settings, our pro
Page 82 and 83: elationships between health and the
Page 84 and 85: 6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
Page 86 and 87: Employment status represents a deri
Page 88 and 89: statistical relationship exists bet
Page 90 and 91: more likely to be drivers if there
Page 92 and 93: Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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percentages of people driving, and
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9.1.1 Computations The projection o
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Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
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Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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material, dampening effect on drive
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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
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Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
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9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
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Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
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Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
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Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
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Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
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Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
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10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
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similarly relied on a regression mo
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trend of fatal crashes in the futur
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The base of exposure to crash risk
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population, and a slightly smaller
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Second, improvements in health stat
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projections of VMT may be high. Our
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of entry/exit, safety, security, et
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Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
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College of Commerce and Business Ad
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National Association of Development
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Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
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GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
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Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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