Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

Table 3.1. Population Projections for the Total United States, by Age Group,
for the Years 2000-2025, with Comparison to the 1995 Population
Age group Number in
1995
Number in
2000
Number in
2005
Number in
2010
Number in
2015
Number in
2020
Number in
2025
All ages a 262,820,000 274,634,000 285,981,000 297,716,000 310,134,000 322,742,000 335,050,000
% increase 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
All elderly (ages
33,532,395 34,709,734 36,166,552 39,408,398 45,566,613 53,219,272 61,951,824
65+)
% of all ages 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 16% 18%
% increase 4% 4% 9% 16% 17% 16%
Ages 65-74 18,759,220 18,135,538 18,368,960 21,057,448 26,243,458 31,384,875 35,424,538
% of all ages 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11%
% increase -3% 1% 15% 25% 20% 13%
Ages 75-84 11,145,006 12,314,793 12,898,112 12,680,364 13,129,891 15,374,496 19,481,045
% of all ages 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6%
% increase 10% 5% -2% 4% 17% 27%
Ages 85+ 3,628,169 4,259,403 4,899,480 5,670,586 6,193,264 6,459,901 7,046,241
% of all ages 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
% increase 17% 15% 16% 9% 4% 9%
Sources: total population counts through 2025 from U.S. Census Bureau publication P25-1130,
Table F, p. 9, middle series ( http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130/ ); elderly population counts
through 2025 derived from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html(Series
A).
aNote that these numbers represent total (institutionalized and non-institutionalized) elderly
population projections. The projections provided in Chapter 5 are for non-institutionalized populations.
3.1.2 By Gender
Mortality rates for men exceed those for women. For the older age groups, the
gender imbalance is even greater. The male to female ratio is growing closer, however. In
1995, there were only 69 men for every 100 women for persons 65 years or older. In
2025, the ratio is expected to be closer to 83 men for every 100 women. Table 3.2 shows
the projected ratios of men to women in different age groups.
Projecting population totals by gender is important because of historical driving
trends. For example, in 1965, only about 28% of all drivers’ licenses for ages 65 and over
were issued to women. In 1995, however, over 50% of all drivers’ licenses for ages 65+
were issued to women.
GM Project G.6 3 - 3 October 2000