Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly Driver Fatality Projections, Male and Female ............. ES-6 Table ES-2 Total Fatality Projections, Male and Female .................... ES-6 Table ES-3 Elder Driver Fatality Projections for 2025 (as Percentages of 1995 Driver Fatalities) ............................................. ES-6 Table 1.1 Older Driver Research Projects Sponsored by General Motors Corporation .............................................. 1-2 Table 3.1 Population Projections for the Total United States, by Age Group, for the Years 2000–2025, with Comparison to the 1995 Population .... 3-3 Table 3.2 Projected Ratios of Men to Women, Total United States, Compared with the 1995 Ratios ....................................... 3-4 Table 3.3 Median Household Income by Type of Household for Selected Years .. 3-5 Table 3.4 Mean Income for the Elderly, by Gender ........................ 3-5 Table 3.5 Comparison of Changes in Percentages of the Elderly in the General Population and in a Count of Total Traffic Fatalities, 1986-1996 ..... 3-35 Table 4.1 Data Sources Examined .................................... 4-10 Table 5.1 NHIS Activity Limitation Status Regression Coefficients and T-Values ................................................ 5-7 Table 6.1 Regression Results for the Probability of Continuing to Drive ........ 6-4 Table 6.2 Determinants of Projected National Driver Growth ............... 6-12 Table 6.3 Determinants of Projected Regional Driver Growth ............... 6-12 Table 7.1 VMT Regressions Results ................................... 7-7 Table 7.2 Determinants of Projected National VMT Growth, 1995-2025 ...... 7-15 Table 7.3 Determinants of Projected Regional VMT Growth ............... 7-16 Table 8.1 Driver Crash Rate Regression ................................ 8-7 Table 8.2 Total Risk Crash Rate Regression ............................. 8-9 Table 8.3 The Determinants of Projected Changes in Driver Risk, National Level ........................................... 8-14 Table 8.4 The Determinants of Projected Changes in Driver Risk, Regional Level .......................................... 8-16 Table 9.1 Sensitivity of Total Driver Fatalities to Perturbations in Independent Variables: Elasticities of Projected Driver Fatalities in 2025 .......... 9-6 Table 9.2 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Income Growth ... 9-10 Table 9.3 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Employment Status ....................................... 9-10 Table 9.4 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Percentage of Elderly Households with Other Drivers ...................... 9-11 Table 9.5 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Trend in Health Status ............................................ 9-11 Table 9.6 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Urbanization ............................................ 9-12 GM Project G.6 viii October 2000
Table 9.7 Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Seat Belt Use ............................................... 9-12 Table 9.8 VMT Projections for 2025 with and Without Pure Time Effects and with Improving Health Status, National Level ................... 9-15 Table 9.9 Comparison of 2025 National Driver Fatality Projections, with Upper-bounded and Lower-bounded VMT Projections ............ 9-17 Table 10.1 Older Driver Fatality Projections by Age Group, Male and Female ... 10-2 Table 10.2 Total Fatality Projections by Age Group, Male and Female ......... 10-2 Table 10.3 Burkhardt et al. and ORNL Projections of Elderly Driver Fatalities as a Percent of 1995 Traffic Fatalities ............................. 10-4 Table 10.4 Wiggers’ and ORNL’s Projections of Elderly Traffic Fatalities as a Percent of Historical Fatalities ............................... 10-6 Table 10.5 Elder Driver Fatality Projections for 2025 ...................... 10-9 Table A.1.1 Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Males, in Miles Driven ...... A-1 Table A.1.2 Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Males, as Percents of 1995 Averages ............................................... A-2 Table A.1.3 Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Females, in Miles Driven ..... A-3 Table A.1.4 Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Females, as Percents of 1995 Averages ............................................... A-4 Table A.2.1 Projections of Drivers in Age Groups, Males, Percentages .......... A-5 Table A.2.2 Projections of Drivers in Age Groups, Males, as Percentages of 1995 Percentages ............................................. A-6 Table A.2.3 Projections of Drivers in Age Groups, Females, Percentages ........ A-7 Table A.2.4 Projections of Drivers in Age Groups, Females, as Percentages of 1995 Percentages ............................................. A-8 Table A.3.1 Elder Driver Fatality Rate Projections, Males, Deaths per 100 Million Miles Driven ................................................. A-9 Table A.3.2 Elder Driver Fatality Rate Projections, Males, Deaths per 100 Million Miles Driven, as Percentage of 1995 Rates ......................... A-10 Table A.3.3 Elder Driver Fatality Rate Projections, Females, Deaths per 100 Million Miles Driven ........................................... A-11 Table A.3.4 Elder Driver Fatality Rate Projections, Females, Deaths per 100 Million Miles Driven, as Percentage of 1995 Rates .................... A-12 Table A.4.1 Projected Elderly Driver Fatalities, Males, Total Number of Fatalities A-13 Table A.4.2 Projected Elderly Driver Fatalities, Males, Total Number of Fatalities as Percent of 1995 Fatalities ................................. A-14 Table A.4.3 Projected Elderly Driver Fatalities, Females, Total Number of Fatalities .............................................. A-15 Table A.4.4 Projected Elderly Driver Fatalities, Females, Total Number of Fatalities as Percent of 1995 Fatalities ................................. A-16 Table A.5.1 Projected Total Fatality Rate Attributed to Male Drivers, Deaths per 100 Million Miles ........................................... A-17 Table A.5.2 Projected Total Fatality Rate Attributed to Male Drivers, Deaths per 100 Million Miles, as Percentage of 1995 Rates .................... A-18 GM Project G.6 ix October 2000
Page 1: ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
Page 4 and 5: 4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
Page 6 and 7: GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
Page 10 and 11: Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
Page 12 and 13: NASS National Automotive Sampling S
Page 14 and 15: Over the past century, the numbers
Page 16 and 17: Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
Page 18 and 19: Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
Page 20 and 21: 1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
Page 22 and 23: of existing data bases, including h
Page 24 and 25: various data sources and their abil
Page 26 and 27: Finally, data sets should contain,
Page 28 and 29: • Examine data sources to determi
Page 30 and 31: health care, resulting in longer li
Page 32 and 33: Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
Page 34 and 35: that individuals will not retire at
Page 36 and 37: analysis. Distribution of the elder
Page 38 and 39: More elderly people live in rural a
Page 40 and 41: assessments of health status) does
Page 42 and 43: 3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
Page 44 and 45: current vision screening tests at d
Page 46 and 47: Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
Page 48 and 49: 3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
Page 50 and 51: Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
Page 52 and 53: tourist services, and “smart” s
Page 54 and 55: Specific highway enhancements to re
Page 56 and 57: 3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
Page 58 and 59:
• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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percentages of people driving, and
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9.1.1 Computations The projection o
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Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
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Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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material, dampening effect on drive
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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
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Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
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9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
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Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
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Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
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Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
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Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
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Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
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10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
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similarly relied on a regression mo
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trend of fatal crashes in the futur
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The base of exposure to crash risk
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population, and a slightly smaller
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Second, improvements in health stat
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projections of VMT may be high. Our
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of entry/exit, safety, security, et
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Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
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College of Commerce and Business Ad
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National Association of Development
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Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
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GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
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Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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