Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Males, as Percents of 1995 Averages National 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 100.0% 107.8% 116.0% 124.5% 133.1% 142.1% 151.3% 70-74 100.0% 104.8% 109.3% 114.3% 120.2% 126.6% 133.2% 75-79 100.0% 103.8% 109.1% 115.0% 121.5% 128.1% 134.9% 80-84 100.0% 105.7% 111.5% 118.4% 125.2% 131.2% 137.5% 85+ 100.0% 100.9% 105.2% 110.3% 115.8% 121.2% 127.0% Midwest 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 100.0% 108.3% 117.2% 126.3% 134.7% 143.7% 153.0% 70-74 100.0% 103.0% 106.8% 111.4% 116.7% 122.5% 128.4% 75-79 100.0% 103.0% 107.0% 111.1% 115.9% 121.0% 126.4% 80-84 100.0% 103.2% 108.6% 115.7% 121.7% 126.9% 132.2% 85+ 100.0% 104.1% 108.6% 114.1% 119.6% 124.9% 130.3% Northeast 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 100.0% 108.1% 116.4% 124.7% 133.1% 141.7% 150.5% 70-74 100.0% 103.5% 107.6% 112.1% 117.3% 122.8% 128.5% 75-79 100.0% 104.8% 109.7% 114.1% 119.4% 124.8% 130.3% 80-84 100.0% 102.9% 107.9% 114.2% 120.0% 125.4% 130.9% 85+ 100.0% 104.1% 108.4% 113.4% 118.5% 123.5% 128.6% South 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 100.0% 107.0% 114.4% 122.6% 130.9% 139.7% 148.6% 70-74 100.0% 104.2% 108.6% 113.5% 119.6% 126.4% 133.2% 75-79 100.0% 104.8% 110.8% 117.4% 124.2% 130.9% 137.9% 80-84 100.0% 107.0% 114.8% 122.5% 131.3% 139.7% 148.5% 85+ 100.0% 104.3% 109.1% 115.0% 121.0% 126.8% 132.8% West 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 100.0% 107.6% 115.3% 123.5% 132.3% 141.4% 150.7% 70-74 100.0% 103.0% 106.6% 111.2% 116.7% 122.8% 129.0% 75-79 100.0% 103.8% 108.4% 113.8% 120.1% 126.9% 133.8% 80-84 100.0% 104.1% 109.6% 116.0% 122.3% 128.2% 134.3% 85+ 100.0% 103.1% 105.7% 109.2% 113.6% 118.6% 123.6% GM Project G.6 A - 2 October <strong>2000</strong>
Table A.1.3. Projections of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Females, <strong>in</strong> Miles Driven National 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 5,841.61 6,469.73 7,207.58 8,062.62 9,022.63 10,102.36 11,275.70 70-74 5,054.79 5,989.04 6,537.90 7,147.67 7,831.89 8,603.26 9,435.52 75-79 4,288.47 4,638.78 5,085.04 5,554.26 6,089.60 6,680.07 7,317.29 80-84 3,805.26 4,252.43 4,690.89 5,145.03 5,655.51 6,209.56 6,818.64 85+ 2,780.62 3,055.74 3,373.67 3,719.86 4,096.97 4,503.36 4,946.91 Midwest 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 5,515.17 6,074.43 6,726.88 7,507.64 8,395.19 9,393.56 10,478.21 70-74 5,152.59 6,060.79 6,597.72 7,209.33 7,898.13 8,674.27 9,508.81 75-79 4,034.03 4,345.09 4,744.21 5,174.98 5,653.74 6,178.32 6,742.60 80-84 3,122.46 3,401.80 3,745.11 4,099.42 4,500.43 4,936.49 5,408.45 85+ 1,640.07 1,780.83 1,954.92 2,135.83 2,345.64 2,577.12 2,828.30 Northeast 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 5,182.14 5,733.13 6,370.35 7,085.14 7,892.20 8,789.68 9,770.73 70-74 5,311.19 6,267.71 6,845.26 7,499.25 8,220.52 9,033.87 9,909.71 75-79 4,545.07 4,950.97 5,451.21 5,965.21 6,525.90 7,142.80 7,810.98 80-84 4,348.77 4,731.74 5,197.44 5,664.51 6,195.68 6,775.43 7,403.78 85+ 3,074.19 3,336.27 3,675.17 4,042.26 4,434.01 4,847.66 5,296.02 South 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 6,208.98 6,837.53 7,573.93 8,444.19 9,438.10 10,553.63 11,769.26 70-74 5,297.19 6,282.94 6,884.63 7,547.35 8,296.86 9,144.90 10,062.47 75-79 3,918.65 4,253.23 4,675.10 5,134.73 5,647.50 6,202.55 6,802.69 80-84 4,378.41 4,772.09 5,274.12 5,815.45 6,405.91 7,034.19 7,717.74 85+ 3,207.43 3,505.66 3,881.74 4,278.36 4,714.14 5,175.27 5,678.42 West 1995 <strong>2000</strong> 2005 2010 2015 2020 <strong>2025</strong> 65-69 6,252.37 6,980.89 7,819.96 8,772.16 9,800.14 10,973.97 12,255.83 70-74 4,283.68 5,044.84 5,502.99 6,017.41 6,581.31 7,216.38 7,900.55 75-79 4,941.45 5,368.45 5,881.23 6,400.80 7,009.10 7,681.64 8,410.64 80-84 3,524.51 3,842.27 4,214.57 4,598.92 5,058.71 5,577.30 6,138.18 85+ 3,437.32 3,690.90 4,017.76 4,367.58 4,759.88 5,197.05 5,667.40 GM Project G.6 A - 3 October <strong>2000</strong>
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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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GM Project G.6 8 - 13 October 2000
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GM Project G.6 8 - 15 October 2000
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percentages of people driving, and
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