Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................... vii
LIST OF TABLES .................................................. viii
ACRONYMS LIST ................................................... xi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................... ES-1
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................. 1-1
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................... 2-1
3. OVERVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ............................... 3-1
3.1 THE ELDERLY POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES ......... 3-1
3.1.1 By Age Groups and Cohorts ............................. 3-2
3.1.2 By Gender .......................................... 3-3
3.1.3 By Economic Status ................................... 3-4
3.1.4 By Race, Ethnicity, and Social Characteristics ................ 3-6
3.1.5 By Geographic Distribution ............................. 3-7
3.2 HEALTH ISSUES ......................................... 3-10
3.2.1 Impacts of Failing Health on Driving Abilities ............... 3-11
3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty on Casualty Rates ............. 3-14
3.2.3 Health and Education Levels ............................ 3-14
3.2.4 Assessment Tools and Retraining ........................ 3-15
3.2.5 Better Health, Extended Life Spans, Later Retirement, and
Greater Mobility ..................................... 3-16
3.3 TRANSPORTATION AND MOBILITY ........................ 3-17
3.3.1 Numbers of Drivers .................................. 3-17
3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits .............................. 3-20
3.3.3 Driving Distances .................................... 3-21
3.3.4 Alternative Transportation Modes ........................ 3-22
3.3.5 “Intelligent” Technologies and Other Adaptive Equipment ..... 3-23
3.4 CRASH LITERATURE ..................................... 3-26
3.4.1 Crash Involvement ................................... 3-27
3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Projects G.1 and G.8) ............ 3-28
3.4.3 Gender Effects ...................................... 3-30
3.4.4 Crashes Involving Elderly Drivers ........................ 3-32
3.4.5 Projections of Crashes and Casualties ..................... 3-34
GM Project G.6 iii
October 2000