Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers in Age Groups, Females, as Percentages of 1995 Percentages National 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 100.0% 111.8% 116.1% 119.9% 123.2% 126.1% 128.4% 70-74 100.0% 113.8% 118.0% 121.8% 125.0% 128.2% 130.8% 75-79 100.0% 108.5% 114.9% 121.3% 127.0% 132.0% 136.4% 80-84 100.0% 117.1% 127.1% 135.0% 141.6% 146.9% 150.9% 85+ 100.0% 133.4% 154.9% 173.6% 189.5% 202.8% 213.6% Midwest 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 100.0% 112.7% 117.8% 122.6% 127.0% 130.9% 134.1% 70-74 100.0% 119.6% 122.3% 124.5% 126.2% 127.8% 129.0% 75-79 100.0% 98.2% 103.7% 108.6% 112.6% 116.0% 118.7% 80-84 100.0% 114.5% 121.7% 126.3% 129.3% 131.4% 132.8% 85+ 100.0% 123.5% 144.0% 161.0% 175.2% 186.8% 195.9% Northeast 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 100.0% 103.8% 104.6% 105.4% 106.3% 107.2% 108.0% 70-74 100.0% 107.0% 108.3% 109.7% 110.9% 112.4% 113.6% 75-79 100.0% 104.4% 105.3% 106.1% 106.8% 107.6% 108.3% 80-84 100.0% 107.8% 114.5% 119.2% 122.7% 125.4% 127.3% 85+ 100.0% 154.1% 172.0% 189.0% 202.8% 213.6% 222.5% South 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 100.0% 117.1% 121.4% 125.3% 128.6% 131.5% 133.8% 70-74 100.0% 115.7% 120.2% 123.9% 127.0% 129.9% 132.1% 75-79 100.0% 117.7% 126.1% 134.1% 141.2% 147.5% 152.9% 80-84 100.0% 135.1% 149.3% 161.5% 171.6% 179.6% 186.2% 85+ 100.0% 137.3% 164.0% 188.6% 210.0% 227.5% 242.2% West 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 100.0% 108.6% 113.5% 117.5% 120.6% 123.1% 125.1% 70-74 100.0% 110.5% 116.9% 122.9% 128.4% 133.5% 137.8% 75-79 100.0% 112.0% 120.5% 128.2% 135.5% 142.0% 147.7% 80-84 100.0% 105.7% 116.2% 124.3% 130.8% 136.0% 139.9% 85+ 100.0% 136.5% 151.0% 162.4% 170.9% 177.7% 182.6% GM Project G.6 A - 8 October 2000
Table A.3.1. Elder Driver Fatality Rate Projections, Males, Deaths per 100 Million Miles Driven National 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 1.23 1.26 1.21 1.16 1.11 1.06 1.02 70-74 1.71 1.88 1.82 1.74 1.65 1.55 1.47 75-79 3.09 3.25 3.12 2.99 2.85 2.72 2.60 80-84 9.63 8.26 7.94 7.57 7.26 6.99 6.76 85+ 16.83 16.94 15.57 14.21 13.01 11.98 11.11 Midwest 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 1.23 1.08 1.02 0.96 0.93 0.89 0.85 70-74 1.56 1.65 1.59 1.52 1.44 1.36 1.30 75-79 2.84 2.87 2.79 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.41 80-84 8.25 5.93 5.72 5.42 5.21 5.06 4.93 85+ 16.95 15.67 14.67 13.61 12.66 11.85 11.18 Northeast 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 0.89 1.02 0.97 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.82 70-74 1.87 1.59 1.52 1.46 1.39 1.32 1.26 75-79 2.84 2.73 2.63 2.53 2.43 2.33 2.25 80-84 5.87 5.80 5.62 5.36 5.16 5.00 4.86 85+ 14.51 15.23 14.29 13.34 12.45 11.68 11.05 South 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 1.39 1.60 1.54 1.47 1.41 1.35 1.30 70-74 1.90 2.35 2.24 2.14 2.01 1.87 1.77 75-79 3.65 4.08 3.87 3.64 3.44 3.27 3.12 80-84 20.03 12.61 11.93 11.30 10.67 10.14 9.68 85+ 24.92 23.31 21.77 20.12 18.63 17.35 16.31 West 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 65-69 1.18 1.07 1.02 0.98 0.93 0.89 0.85 70-74 1.46 1.64 1.58 1.52 1.43 1.35 1.28 75-79 2.66 2.79 2.69 2.57 2.43 2.30 2.19 80-84 6.50 6.14 5.91 5.64 5.42 5.23 5.06 85+ 9.43 9.77 8.03 6.54 5.28 4.24 3.45 GM Project G.6 A - 9 October 2000
Page 1:
ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
Page 4 and 5:
4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
Page 6 and 7:
GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
Page 8 and 9:
LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
Page 10 and 11:
Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
Page 12 and 13:
NASS National Automotive Sampling S
Page 14 and 15:
Over the past century, the numbers
Page 16 and 17:
Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
Page 18 and 19:
Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
Page 20 and 21:
1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
Page 22 and 23:
of existing data bases, including h
Page 24 and 25:
various data sources and their abil
Page 26 and 27:
Finally, data sets should contain,
Page 28 and 29:
• Examine data sources to determi
Page 30 and 31:
health care, resulting in longer li
Page 32 and 33:
Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
Page 34 and 35:
that individuals will not retire at
Page 36 and 37:
analysis. Distribution of the elder
Page 38 and 39:
More elderly people live in rural a
Page 40 and 41:
assessments of health status) does
Page 42 and 43:
3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
Page 44 and 45:
current vision screening tests at d
Page 46 and 47:
Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
Page 48 and 49:
3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
Page 50 and 51:
Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
Page 52 and 53:
tourist services, and “smart” s
Page 54 and 55:
Specific highway enhancements to re
Page 56 and 57:
3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
Page 58 and 59:
• As age increased, being struck
Page 60 and 61:
men using mid-1990s data, this gend
Page 62 and 63:
major contributing factor as was dr
Page 64 and 65:
Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
Page 66 and 67:
cohort behavior and conditions for
Page 68 and 69:
4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
Page 70 and 71:
The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
Page 72 and 73:
these data and weights. Because of
Page 74 and 75:
U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
Page 76 and 77:
5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
Page 78 and 79:
or acquisition costs, of the goods
Page 80 and 81:
institutionalized settings, our pro
Page 82 and 83:
elationships between health and the
Page 84 and 85:
6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
Page 86 and 87:
Employment status represents a deri
Page 88 and 89:
statistical relationship exists bet
Page 90 and 91:
more likely to be drivers if there
Page 92 and 93:
Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
Page 94 and 95:
considerably greater proportional c
Page 96 and 97:
Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
Page 98 and 99:
Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
Page 100 and 101:
Second, VMT as a consumption item i
Page 102 and 103:
century on which we are unable to o
Page 104 and 105:
The health status effects are posit
Page 106 and 107:
significant one in the final set of
Page 108 and 109:
empirically derived regression coef
Page 110 and 111:
GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
Page 112 and 113:
Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
Page 114 and 115:
8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
Page 116 and 117:
The other fatality risk concept we
Page 118 and 119:
dropped. Since these measures have
Page 120 and 121:
have a regular pattern over the age
Page 122 and 123:
Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
Page 124 and 125:
projection the asymptotic behavior
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
percentages of people driving, and
Page 132 and 133:
9.1.1 Computations The projection o
Page 134 and 135:
Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
Page 136 and 137:
Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
Page 138 and 139: material, dampening effect on drive
Page 140 and 141: Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
Page 142 and 143: Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
Page 144 and 145: 9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
Page 146 and 147: Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
Page 148 and 149: Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
Page 150 and 151: Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
Page 152 and 153: Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
Page 154 and 155: Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
Page 156 and 157: 10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
Page 158 and 159: similarly relied on a regression mo
Page 160 and 161: trend of fatal crashes in the futur
Page 162 and 163: The base of exposure to crash risk
Page 164 and 165: population, and a slightly smaller
Page 166 and 167: Second, improvements in health stat
Page 168 and 169: projections of VMT may be high. Our
Page 170 and 171: of entry/exit, safety, security, et
Page 172 and 173: Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
Page 174 and 175: College of Commerce and Business Ad
Page 176 and 177: National Association of Development
Page 178 and 179: Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
Page 180 and 181: GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
Page 182 and 183: Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
Page 184 and 185: Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
Page 186 and 187: Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
Page 190 and 191: Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 192 and 193: Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 194 and 195: Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 196 and 197: Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 198 and 199: Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
Page 206 and 207: Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 208 and 209: Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 210 and 211: B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
Page 212 and 213: Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
Page 214 and 215: B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
Page 216 and 217: B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
Page 218 and 219: C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
Page 220: GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
show all

Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?