Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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National Association of Development Organizations Research Foundation. 1999. “Focus on Rural America,” Economic Development Digest. Vol. 10, No. 6, pp. 1-3. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 1999A. “Traffic Safety Facts 1998: Overview.” http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/pdf/Overview98.pdf . National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 1999B. “Research Note: Observed Safety Belt Use in 1998.” http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/98obbelt.html . Owsley, Cynthia, Gerald McGwin, Jr., and Karlene Ball. 1998. “Vision Impairment, Eye Disease, and Injurious Motor Vehicle Crashes in the Elderly.” Ophthalmic Epidemiology. Vol. 5, No. 2. Pp. 101-113. Owsley, Cynthia, Karlene Ball, Gerald McGwin, Jr., Michael E. Sloane, Daniel L. Roenker, Milton F. White, and E. Todd Overley. 1998. “Visual Processing Impairment and Risk of Motor Vehicle Crash Among Older Adults.” The Journal of the American Medical Association. Vol. 279, No. 14, pp. 1083-1088. Pickerell, Don, and Paul Simek. 1999. “Growth in Motor Vehicle Ownership and Use: Evidence from the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey,” Journal of Transportation and Statistics. Vol. 2, pp. 1-17. Pike, Jeffrey A. 1999. “Protecting the Older Driver – Vehicle Concepts,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. Roenker, Daniel L., Gayla M. Cissell, and Karlene K. Ball. ND. “The Effects of Useful Field of View and Driving Simulator Training on Driving Performance.” [draft paper] Rogers, Carolyn C. 1999. “Growth of the Oldest Old Population and Future Implications for Rural Areas,” Rural Development Perspectives. Vol. 14, No. 3, http://www.ers.usda.gov/epubs/pdf/rdp/rdpoct99/rdpoct99d.pdf . Rubin, Gary S., Sheila K. West, and Kathleen Turano, Claudia Kawas, Scott Zeger, Beatriz Muñoz, Jennifer Istre, and Janet O’Conner. 1998. “Salisbury Eye Evaluation Study,” mimeo, Johns Hopkins University. Schatz, Sally, Jane Stutts, and Jean Wilkins. 1999A. “The Decision to Stop Driving: Results of Focus Groups with Seniors and Family Members.” Proceedings, Transportation Research Board, 78 th Annual Meeting. Schatz, Sally, Jane Stutts, and Jean Wilkins. 1999B. “The Premature Reduction and Cessation of Driving: A Preliminary Study of Women Who Choose Not to Drive GM Project G.6 R - 6 October 2000
or to Drive Infrequently.” Proceedings, Transportation Research Board, 78 th Annual Meeting. Sarmiento, S. 1996. “Household, Gender, and Travel.” Pp. 37-52 in Women’s Travel Issues: Proceedings from the Second National Conference, October 1996. U.S. Department of Transportation. FHWA-PL-97-024. Sims, Richard V., Cynthia Owsley, Richard M. Allman, Karlene Ball, and Tonya M. Smoot. 1998. “A Preliminary Assessment of the Medical and Functional Factors Associated with Vehicle Crashes by Older Adults.” Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. Vol. 46, pp. 556-561. Smiley, Alison. 1999. “Adaptive Strategies of Older Drivers,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. Social Security Administration. 1999. “Social Security Retirement Benefits,” Pub. No. 05- 10035, http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10035.html. Stamatiadis, Nikiforos. 1999. “Gender Effect on the Accident Patterns of Elderly Drivers,” Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Traffic Safety on Two Continents. Staplin, Loren, and Linda Hunt. 1999. “Driver Programs,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. Staplin, Loren. 1999. “Highway Enhancements to Improve the Safety and Mobility of Older Road Users: Practical Applications of Current Devices,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. Stewart, R.B., M.T. Moore, R.G. Marks, F.E. May, and W.E. Hale. 1993. “Driving Cessation and Accidents in the Elderly: An Analysis of Symptoms, Diseases, Cognitive Dysfunction and Medications,” AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, Washington, D.C. Straight, Audrey. 1997. Community Transportation Survey. Public Policy Institute, American Association of Retired Persons. Washington, D.C. Suen, Ling. 1999. “Mobility Alternatives for Seniors,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. GM Project G.6 R - 7 October 2000
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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
Page 126 and 127: GM Project G.6 8 - 13 October 2000
Page 128 and 129: GM Project G.6 8 - 15 October 2000
Page 130 and 131: percentages of people driving, and
Page 132 and 133: 9.1.1 Computations The projection o
Page 134 and 135: Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
Page 136 and 137: Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
Page 138 and 139: material, dampening effect on drive
Page 140 and 141: Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
Page 142 and 143: Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
Page 144 and 145: 9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
Page 146 and 147: Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
Page 148 and 149: Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
Page 150 and 151: Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
Page 152 and 153: Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
Page 154 and 155: Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
Page 156 and 157: 10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
Page 158 and 159: similarly relied on a regression mo
Page 160 and 161: trend of fatal crashes in the futur
Page 162 and 163: The base of exposure to crash risk
Page 164 and 165: population, and a slightly smaller
Page 166 and 167: Second, improvements in health stat
Page 168 and 169: projections of VMT may be high. Our
Page 170 and 171: of entry/exit, safety, security, et
Page 172 and 173: Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
Page 174 and 175: College of Commerce and Business Ad
Page 178 and 179: Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
Page 180 and 181: GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
Page 182 and 183: Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
Page 184 and 185: Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
Page 186 and 187: Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
Page 188 and 189: Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
Page 190 and 191: Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 192 and 193: Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 194 and 195: Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 196 and 197: Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 198 and 199: Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
Page 206 and 207: Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 208 and 209: Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 210 and 211: B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
Page 212 and 213: Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
Page 214 and 215: B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
Page 216 and 217: B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
Page 218 and 219: C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
Page 220: GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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