Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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College of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Alabama, WP 94-01. Hakamies-Blomqvist, Liisa. 1999. “Safety of Older Persons in Traffic,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. Hersch, Susan Winter. 1997. “Older Drivers: License Restriction vs. Revocation.” Research Notes. http://www.dmv.ca.gov/profile/rd/resnotes/older.htm. Hobbs, Frank B., and Bonnie L. Damon. 1996. 65+ in the United States. U.S. Bureau of the Census. Current Population Reports, Special Studies, P23-190. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Hu, P.S., Jennifer R. Young, and An Lu. 1993. Highway Crash Rates and Age-Related Driver Limitations: Literature Review and Evaluation of Data Bases. ORNL/TM- 12456. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Hu, P.S., David Trumble, and An Lu. 1995. “Driving Decisions and Vehicle Crashes among Older Drivers.” ORNL/M-4620. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Hu, Patricia S., David A. Trumble, Daniel J. Foley, John W. Eberhard, and Robert B. Wallace. 1998. “Crash Risks of Older Drivers: A Panel Data Analysis,” Accident Analysis and Prevention. Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 569-581. Janke, Mary K. 1991. “Accidents, Mileage, and the Exaggeration of Risk,” Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 23, Nos. 2-3, pp. 183-188. Janke, Mary K. 1997. “Dementia/Frailty Study – Where Are We Now?” Research Notes. http://www.dmv.ca.gov/profile/rd/resnotes/dfstudy.htm. Jeff, G., and R. McElroy. 1996. “Women’s Travel: Consequences and Opportunities.” Pp. 81-93 in Women’s Travel Issues: Proceedings from the Second National Conference, October 1996. U.S. Department of Transportation. FHWA-PL-97- 024. Johnson, Kenneth M., and Calvin L. Beale. 1999. “The Continuing Population Rebound in Nonmetro America,” Rural Development Perspectives. Vol. 13(3), http://www.ers.usda.gov/epubs/pdf/rdp/rdp1098/index.htm. Koppa, Rodger. 1999. “Motor Vehicle Adaptive Equipment and Modifications,” prepared for the Transportation Research Board Conference on Transportation in an Aging Society, Bethesda, Maryland. GM Project G.6 R - 4 October 2000
Kostyniuk, Lidia P., Deborah A. Trombley, and Jean T. Shope. 1998. The Process of Reduction and Cessation of Driving Among Older Drivers: A Review of the Literature. UMTRI-98-23. The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. Manton, Kenneth G., Larry Corder, and Eric Stallard. 1997. “Chronic Disability Trends in Elderly United States Populations: 1982-1994,” pp. 2593-2598 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. March 1997 Manton, Kenneth G., Eric Stallard, and Burton H. Singer. 1994. “Methods for Projecting the Future Size and Health Status of the U.S. Elderly Population,”pp. 44-77 in Studies in the Economics of Aging, David A. Wise, Ed., University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Marottoli, Richard A., Adrian M. Ostfeld, Susan S. Merrill, Gary D. Perlman, Daniel J. Foley, and Leo M. Cooney, Jr. 1993. “Driving Cessation and Changes in Mileage Driven Among Elderly Individuals.” Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences. Vol. 48, No. 5, pp. S255-S260. Massie, Dawn L., Paul E. Green, and Kenneth L. Campbell. 1997. “Crash Involvement Rates by Driver Gender and the Role of Average Annual Mileage.” Accident Analysis and Prevention. Vol. 29, No. 5, pp. 675-685. Massie, Dawn L., Kenneth L. Campbell, and Allan F. Williams. 1995. “Traffic Accident Involvement Rates by Driver Age and Gender.” Accident Analysis and Prevention. Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 73-87. McGwin, Gerald, Jr., Cynthia Owsley, and Karlene Ball. ND. “Identifying Crash Involvement Among Older Drivers: Agreement Between Self-report and Staterecords.” Paper submitted to Accident Analysis and Prevention. Murray, Christopher J. L., and Alan D. Lopez. 1997. “Alternative Projections of Mortality and Disability by Cause 1990-2020: Global Burden of Disease Study.” The Lancet. Harvard School of Public Health. Vol. 349, pp. 1498-1504. Myers, George C., Ed. 1997. “Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD): Initial Results From the Longitudinal Study,” The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological and Social Sciences, 52B (Special Issue). Myers, Renee S., Karlene K. Ball, Thomas D. Kalina, David L. Roth, and Kathryn T. Goode. ND. “The Relationship of Useful Field of View and Other Screening Instruments to On-Road Driving Performance.” [draft paper] GM Project G.6 R - 5 October 2000
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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
Page 124 and 125: projection the asymptotic behavior
Page 126 and 127: GM Project G.6 8 - 13 October 2000
Page 128 and 129: GM Project G.6 8 - 15 October 2000
Page 130 and 131: percentages of people driving, and
Page 132 and 133: 9.1.1 Computations The projection o
Page 134 and 135: Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
Page 136 and 137: Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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Page 140 and 141: Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
Page 142 and 143: Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
Page 144 and 145: 9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
Page 146 and 147: Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
Page 148 and 149: Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
Page 150 and 151: Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
Page 152 and 153: Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
Page 154 and 155: Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
Page 156 and 157: 10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
Page 158 and 159: similarly relied on a regression mo
Page 160 and 161: trend of fatal crashes in the futur
Page 162 and 163: The base of exposure to crash risk
Page 164 and 165: population, and a slightly smaller
Page 166 and 167: Second, improvements in health stat
Page 168 and 169: projections of VMT may be high. Our
Page 170 and 171: of entry/exit, safety, security, et
Page 172 and 173: Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
Page 176 and 177: National Association of Development
Page 178 and 179: Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
Page 180 and 181: GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
Page 182 and 183: Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
Page 184 and 185: Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
Page 186 and 187: Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
Page 188 and 189: Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
Page 190 and 191: Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 192 and 193: Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
Page 194 and 195: Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 196 and 197: Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
Page 198 and 199: Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
Page 206 and 207: Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 208 and 209: Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
Page 210 and 211: B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
Page 212 and 213: Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
Page 214 and 215: B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
Page 216 and 217: B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
Page 218 and 219: C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
Page 220: GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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