Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Income Growth Age group VMT Percent of population driving Arc Elasticity Fatal accident rate Total fatalities Men 65-69 0.18 0.03 -0.26 -0.06 70-74 0.23 0.04 -0.42 -0.14 75-79 0.24 0.04 -0.32 -0.04 80-84 0.12 0.01 -0.13 0.02 85+ 0.27 0.04 -0.35 -0.003 Women 65-69 0.11 0.02 -0.21 -0.08 70-74 0.12 0.08 -0.29 -0.09 75-79 0.07 0.03 -0.14 -0.04 80-84 0.60 0.28 -1.45 -0.55 85+ 0.06 0.06 -0.14 -0.02 Perturbation: 10 % increase in the rate of increase Table 9.3. Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Employment Status Age group VMT Percent of population driving Arc Elasticity Fatal accident rate Total driver fatalities Men 65-69 0.49 0.002 0.50 70-74 0.29 0.01 0.31 75-79 0.55 0.004 0.55 80-84 0.63 0.01 0.64 85+ - 0.004 0.005 Women 65-69 0.66 0.01 0.67 70-74 0.78 0.01 0.79 75-79 0.42 0.01 0.43 80-84 0.43 0.01 0.44 85+ 0.43 0.03 0.46 Perturbation:10 % increase in the rate of growth GM Project G.6 9 - 10 October 2000
Table 9.4. Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Percentage of Elderly Households with Other Drivers Age group VMT Percent of population driving Arc Elasticity Fatal accident rate Total driver fatalities Men 65-69 - 0.03 0.03 70-74 -0.10 0.01 -0.09 75-79 -0.34 -0.02 -0.36 80-84 -0.31 -0.01 -0.32 85+ -0.17 -0.07 -0.26 Women 65-69 -0.41 -0.04 -0.44 70-74 -0.45 -0.08 -0.53 75-79 -0.58 -0.08 -0.65 80-84 -0.53 -0.16 -0.70 85+ - -0.17 -0.17 Perturbation: 1.67% increase per 5 year period Age group Table 9.5. Sensitivity of 2025 Projections to Perturbations in Projected Trend in Health Status VMT Percent of population driving Arc Elasticity Fatal accident rate Total driver fatalities Men 65-69 - 0.02 0.02 70-74 1.23 0.13 1.39 75-79 0.36 0.07 0.43 80-84 0.28 0.07 0.35 85+ 0.12 -0.001 0.12 Women 65-69 0.12 0.06 0.17 70-74 0.25 0.19 0.44 75-79 0.54 0.19 0.73 80-84 0.39 0.21 0.60 85+ 1.27 -0.03 1.24 Perturbation: 1.25% increase per 5-year period GM Project G.6 9 - 11 October 2000
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ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
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4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
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GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
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LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
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Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
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NASS National Automotive Sampling S
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Over the past century, the numbers
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Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
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Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
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1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
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of existing data bases, including h
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various data sources and their abil
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Finally, data sets should contain,
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• Examine data sources to determi
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health care, resulting in longer li
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Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
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that individuals will not retire at
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analysis. Distribution of the elder
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More elderly people live in rural a
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assessments of health status) does
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3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
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current vision screening tests at d
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Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
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3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
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Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
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tourist services, and “smart” s
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Specific highway enhancements to re
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3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
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• As age increased, being struck
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men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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Page 92 and 93: Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
Page 94 and 95: considerably greater proportional c
Page 96 and 97: Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
Page 98 and 99: Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
Page 100 and 101: Second, VMT as a consumption item i
Page 102 and 103: century on which we are unable to o
Page 104 and 105: The health status effects are posit
Page 106 and 107: significant one in the final set of
Page 108 and 109: empirically derived regression coef
Page 110 and 111: GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
Page 112 and 113: Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
Page 114 and 115: 8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
Page 116 and 117: The other fatality risk concept we
Page 118 and 119: dropped. Since these measures have
Page 120 and 121: have a regular pattern over the age
Page 122 and 123: Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
Page 124 and 125: projection the asymptotic behavior
Page 130 and 131: percentages of people driving, and
Page 132 and 133: 9.1.1 Computations The projection o
Page 134 and 135: Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
Page 136 and 137: Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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Page 142 and 143: Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
Page 144 and 145: 9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
Page 146 and 147: Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
Page 148 and 149: Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
Page 150 and 151: Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
Page 152 and 153: Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
Page 154 and 155: Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
Page 156 and 157: 10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
Page 158 and 159: similarly relied on a regression mo
Page 160 and 161: trend of fatal crashes in the futur
Page 162 and 163: The base of exposure to crash risk
Page 164 and 165: population, and a slightly smaller
Page 166 and 167: Second, improvements in health stat
Page 168 and 169: projections of VMT may be high. Our
Page 170 and 171: of entry/exit, safety, security, et
Page 172 and 173: Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
Page 174 and 175: College of Commerce and Business Ad
Page 176 and 177: National Association of Development
Page 178 and 179: Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
Page 180 and 181: GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
Page 182 and 183: Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
Page 184 and 185: Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
Page 186 and 187: Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
Page 188 and 189: Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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