Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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NASS National Automotive Sampling System NCSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis NHIS National Health Interview Survey NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NIA National Institute on Aging (DHHS) NLTCS National Long Term Care Surveys NPTS Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey NSC National Safety Council OAA Older Americans Act ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory PAR Police Accident Report PILR Property Insurance Loss Register POV Privately Owned Vehicle SIPP Survey of Income and Program Participation (Bureau of Census) SSA Social Security Administration UFOV Useful Field of View VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled GM Project G.6 xii October 2000
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At the turn of the century – the 20 th century that is – the median age in the United States was under 30 years; America was 60% rural in nature; and there were only 36 highway fatalities all year. As we leave the 20 th century behind, the route into the 21 st century is very different. “Intelligent” cars speed down multi-lane “smart” highways in a nation that is 75% urban. According to the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Statistics, there are 28,000 times more vehicles on the road in 2000 than there were in 1900, and these vehicles travel about 2.6 trillion miles each year. Annual fatalities resulting from highway crashes have also increased – by over 1100%. We see other changes as well. The face of America is changing. It is growing older. In 2025, persons 65 and over will make up 18.5% of the total population. The number of persons aged 85 and over is increasing more rapidly than any other age group. More importantly, the elderly are taking more trips, driving further, and continuing to drive much later in life. These conditions lead to concerns about traffic safety. Although the elderly are healthier and drive safer cars than they did just two decades ago, their frailty makes them more susceptible to injury than younger persons involved in traffic crashes of the same severity. In addition, visual, physical, and cognitive skills, all of which contribute to driving abilities, decrease with advancing age. The familiar “U”-shaped curve depicting the rate of fatalities per vehicle miles traveled, shows that the elderly experience a higher highway fatality rate than any other age group except teenagers. While the overall number of highway fatalities has decreased regularly since 1972, the number of fatalities of elderly travelers has continued to increase steadily. This increase is cause for concern for both the elderly driver and for other persons on the roads who mightbe placed in danger through crashes involving elderly drivers. GM Project G.6 ES - 1 October 2000
Page 1: ORNL-6963 Projecting Fatalities in
Page 4 and 5: 4. ANALYSIS OF DATA SETS ..........
Page 6 and 7: GM Project G.6 vi October 2000
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1 Elderly D
Page 10 and 11: Table A.5.3 Projected Total Fatalit
Page 14 and 15: Over the past century, the numbers
Page 16 and 17: Figure ES-1. Projected Active Drive
Page 18 and 19: Table ES-1. Elderly Driver Fatality
Page 20 and 21: 1. INTRODUCTION America is graying.
Page 22 and 23: of existing data bases, including h
Page 24 and 25: various data sources and their abil
Page 26 and 27: Finally, data sets should contain,
Page 28 and 29: • Examine data sources to determi
Page 30 and 31: health care, resulting in longer li
Page 32 and 33: Age group Table 3.2. Projected Rati
Page 34 and 35: that individuals will not retire at
Page 36 and 37: analysis. Distribution of the elder
Page 38 and 39: More elderly people live in rural a
Page 40 and 41: assessments of health status) does
Page 42 and 43: 3.2.2 Impacts of Increasing Frailty
Page 44 and 45: current vision screening tests at d
Page 46 and 47: Number of Licenses (thousands) 100
Page 48 and 49: 3.3.2 Changes in Driving Habits In
Page 50 and 51: Transportation Survey (NPTS) data,
Page 52 and 53: tourist services, and “smart” s
Page 54 and 55: Specific highway enhancements to re
Page 56 and 57: 3.4.2 Other GM Project Results (Pro
Page 58 and 59: • As age increased, being struck
Page 60 and 61: men using mid-1990s data, this gend
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major contributing factor as was dr
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Total (percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 A
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cohort behavior and conditions for
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4.2.3 Drivers and Driving Distance
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The HRS and the AHEAD studies are c
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these data and weights. Because of
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U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.cens
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5. OVERVIEW OF THE MODELING SYSTEM
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or acquisition costs, of the goods
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institutionalized settings, our pro
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elationships between health and the
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6. THE PROPORTION OF THE ELDERLY PO
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Employment status represents a deri
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statistical relationship exists bet
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more likely to be drivers if there
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Statistics (BLS) projections beyond
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considerably greater proportional c
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Table 6.3 (continued) Western Men W
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Daily Person Trips/Person Figure 7.
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Second, VMT as a consumption item i
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century on which we are unable to o
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The health status effects are posit
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significant one in the final set of
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empirically derived regression coef
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GM Project G.6 7 - 14 October 2000
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Table 7.3. Determinants of Projecte
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8. FATAL CRASH RATES 8.1 MODELING F
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The other fatality risk concept we
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dropped. Since these measures have
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have a regular pattern over the age
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Table 8.2. Total Risk Crash Rate Re
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projection the asymptotic behavior
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percentages of people driving, and
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9.1.1 Computations The projection o
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Figure 9.2, the combination of thes
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Table 9.1. Sensitivity of Total Dri
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material, dampening effect on drive
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Table 9.2. Sensitivity of 2025 Proj
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Age group Table 9.6. Sensitivity of
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9.3.1 The Effect of Time on VMT Pro
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Figure 9.4. Projected VMT, Women (U
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Figure 9.6. Component Contributions
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Step 1: Introduction Step 2: Decisi
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Step 3a: Modifying Income at differ
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Clicking on one of the sheet tabs w
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10. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM
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similarly relied on a regression mo
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trend of fatal crashes in the futur
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The base of exposure to crash risk
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population, and a slightly smaller
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Second, improvements in health stat
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projections of VMT may be high. Our
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of entry/exit, safety, security, et
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Blincoe, Lawrence. 1994. Estimating
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College of Commerce and Business Ad
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National Association of Development
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Suen, S. Ling, C. G. B. Mitchell, a
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GLOSSARY Baby boomers Persons born
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Table A.1.2. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.1.4. Projections of Vehicle
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Table A.2.2. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.2.4. Projections of Drivers
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Table A.3.2. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.3.4. Elder Driver Fatality
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Table A.4.2. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.4.4. Projected Elderly Driv
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Table A.5.2. Projected Total Fatali
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Table B.1. Projections of Non-Insti
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Table B.3. Projections of Non-Insti
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B.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES PROJECTI
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Table B.5. Male DRI Income Projecti
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B.2.1.2. Projection Adjustments to
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B.2.5 Seatbelt Use Our projections
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C.3. DECREASING GROWTH RATES OF DRI
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GM Project G.6 C - 4 October 2000 T
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Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

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