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10 Type of model i VON BERT. },IODEL !'IXED SIGMOID UODEL BOTH I,IODELS Type of sanpling schene: UNIFORM I.{EDIUM SMALL ALL rL/25 2/25 o/ 25 s/25 4/25 o/25 e/25 6/25 o/25 29//7 5 't-2 /'7 5 o/7 5 Tab1e 1: Proportion of sanples in vhich we had statistically signj-ficant evidence 1F, at the o.o5 level) for rejecting the ("incorrectn) reduced models in favor of the (trcorrectn) Iull nodeI. Note that vre can distj-nguish the fuII rnodel from the von geiiaranfry nodel only about a third of.the.tine' - The full nodel does even worse against the fixed sigrnoid model' And we could not select the FUiL rnodef agai'nst both conpetitors in any .".r""tv-five sanples. The rnoral is sirnple: At least "i-""i l]ndu. itts awfully hard to find the underlying popufation "oa" "ot_ditiott=, model by exanining residual variation to fit in sanples I B. If one is unlikely to find strong evidence for the (',correctr.) PttLL rnodel over its two competitors, then how severe are the errors one is fikely to nake in selecting one of Ln" 1"r.ot1n,,, reduced rnodels? Any conptete to this lnsv?l question d6pends on the context of oners inwestigation' For dnis sirnulalion study, we shall address this question in two ways. 1. Flrst, we can evaluate nodel perforrnance by seeing which nodets do best how often in estinating three population pararneters of Possible interest: a. Hatchfing tength; HL. - b. Asyhptotic length; AL. c. Length at age 10 Years; L(l"o). " e Readers should remember that the asynptotic length Dredicted by a model is not rrthe biggest any crocodile ls ever loino to q"t." n.th.t it is an expected (sort of an average) ii"ii". around \,ihich we night see considerable variability. "ir", lo we figured that expected length at an internediate life staqe llliqht be more int;resting to researchers than either hat;hlinq length (which typicatly is pretty- well -known) or asynrptoLic siie (which night intrigue rnore journalists than
11 The -following four tables give the nunber of tines a grven rnodel perforns best (of the three nodels) in e=t-i-m.ting qtv"n paraneters under given sarnpling schenes: Type of rnodel: FULL },{ODEL VON BERT. T.{ODEL FIXED SIGI,'OID MODEL Pararneter being estirnated HL t(lo) AI, 2L 2I 14 Table 2: Which nodel is best at estihating which pararneters under the UNIpoRt{ sanplin{ schene. Type of model: FULL I.{ODEL Paraneter being estirnated HL L(10) AL 1a VON BERT. }.{ODEL PIXED SIGMOID MODEL a4 Table 3: Which nodel is best at estirnating vhich pararneters under the I,IEDIUI,{ sanpli;d schelne. Type of rnodel: FULL MODEL VON BERT. MODEL Parametera being estirnated HL L(ro) AL 22 r'7 FIXED SIGMOID MODEL Tab1e 4: Which hodel is best at estirnating which parameters under the SI.IALL sarn;ii;; schetne. biologists). The exact aqe ve decided to evaluate vas rather cirosen arbitrarity-- becarlse we thouqht lt rnllni-te'J cornlng-to-naturity sort ot age for a crocodilian and be-cause lO a precty, ts such round nurnber.
Page 1 and 2: CROCODILES Proc€€dings of the l
Page 3: FOREWORD The two volumes of this PR
Page 6 and 7: Elsey, R M, McNease, L & Joanen, T:
Page 9 and 10: CFAZ CIIAIRMAN'S OPENING COMMENTS F
Page 11 and 12: PRESENTATION FROM THE MINISTER OF E
Page 13 and 14: Fitting Curves to crocodilian Aqe-s
Page 15 and 16: 7 a.set of uniforrn random nunbers.
Page 17: 2. VON BERTAI"ANFFY MODEL FOR GROWT
Page 21 and 22: UNIFoRU sarnpling MEDfUM sahpl ing
Page 23 and 24: 15 Sectior IV: Actual Croc Data, l,
Page 25 and 26: 1'l (ii) Linear regressron. same ra
Page 27 and 28: 1,9 rejecting nufl hypotheses that
Page 29 and 30: 21 Brisbin, I.L., Jr., c.c. White,
Page 31 and 32: Iength lthich corresponds to the ni
Page 33 and 34: 25 Because of lack of funds Eo carr
Page 35 and 36: 27 Despite the fact that during a p
Page 37 and 38: 29 FIGURE N9 2 BLACK CAIIIAN POPULA
Page 39 and 40: I'Effect of diets conplenented vith
Page 41 and 42: 3i Two of the 6 x 2 m. tanks four e
Page 43 and 44: : .i ; -3, E .-1 t FFdF !_9 + + + +
Page 45 and 46: 10 Table IV : fl aernathological Re
Page 47 and 48: 4l 4.- CONCLUSIoNS 1) The most favo
Page 49 and 50: 43 THE INVOLVEMENT OF RURAL COMMUNI
Page 51 and 52: 45 the rainy season and, in conhast
Page 53 and 54: 47 difficulties and the isolation o
Page 55 and 56: 49 Eacb time that one of the villag
Page 57 and 58: 51 CONCLUSION Naturally, these rcsu
Page 59 and 60: 53 LONG-TERM POPUT-A.TION S'ruDIES
Page 61 and 62: 55 'Ile study reporled here was des
Page 63 and 64: 5'7 made of transmilteFequjpped ndm
Page 65 and 66: 59 wilhin the reservoir was lypific
Page 67 and 68: 6l However the use of such winter d
Page 69 and 70:
6.1 surface to breathe (Kellogg 192
Page 71 and 72:
65 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was su
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Murphy, T. M., P. M. Wilkinson, J-
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69 t 3 ^ 3 :9s 3P o ;x !B 'rr.l9 3e
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7l FoDd B + i Poud C I Pltllr. l. U
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73 9 October 1991 L t' I L t' 26 Ma
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75 80 -r- 1987-88 + 1991-92 t -40 .
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77 GROWTH RAIE OF CAIMAN (Caiman cr
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79 Values of the life lable paramet
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81 REFERENCES Craig. G.C., D. Si.C.
Page 89 and 90:
83 CUMATIC F{w L Stirldi .6.aiDS EF
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85 2. Behavioral facilitation of re
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87 TeEperature, hy&ic coaditionq aa
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89 The sexual behaviors of irdividu
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9l 2o I E F conuor o.r r.0 r0.0 a0.
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93 Referetrces Ber!, H.A. (1990). T
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95 GROWTH RATES AND BODY CONDITION
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97 LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSMONAL
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99 be removed sustalnably, provided
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101 necessary as the endurance of t
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103 Table 2. The ratio of first sig
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105 3) Movement and dispersal The r
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107 Disease Trend$ on Crocodite Far
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109 Fuigol and other dermar,?ir - d
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111 THE FEEDINC ECOLOGY OF TWO NILE
Page 119 and 120:
113 areas outside the National park
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115 been done for a tlpical populat
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117 ACKNOWLU)GEMENTS This study was
Page 125 and 126:
119 THE STATUS AN'D DISTRIBUTION OF
Page 127 and 128:
Figure l: Crocodile Survey - Tanzan
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123 :rD ES e € a 69 PE e 3 Er t !
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125 Ruaha River (Figure 2) The Ruah
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127 lake Mtera (Figure 4) This is a
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t29 with 6shermenand subsistence f'
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lil Kilimmjaro/Tanga Region Pa gani
Page 139 and 140:
133 The numbers of crccodiles durin
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135 REFERENCES Chabreck, R.H. 1966.
Page 143 and 144:
l -37' 3.1.4 lagal Trad.e Local tra
Page 145 and 146:
l.l9 In order to gecure credibility
Page 147 and 148:
l4l 'rould apply to 6kins of good h
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143 This infdrrDation cduld be supp
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l.l-s ].nternational reEplfnstbitit
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t4'/ illegal sttjns in their pr,r,d
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149 CROCODILE SKIN INDUSTRY IN ETII
Page 157 and 158:
l5l Table 2. Ouotas for Ethiopian c
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153 depriving EWCO of incentive for
Page 161 and 162:
155 A PRELII{] NARY ASStsSS!.IENT O
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15',7 Origin l Payert lltosk Breedi
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159 dropped, producing 23 and l9 eg
Page 167 and 168:
l6l This figure ts even lorrer than
Page 169 and 170:
163 =z 3F \riciNoraj {
Page 171 and 172:
165 References EArr,ER, R.D. ( 1976
Page 173 and 174:
t6'1 IPPIIDIX tt BtoBtE cI0@(DILX n
Page 175 and 176:
l()t/ Backqround l,lelano5uchus nio
Page 177:
t7l The numbers of black cainan c'b
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