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I I I d "L 115
116 selecting securities Na'ive Expected Returns In na'ive form, all the simple financial ratios-P/E, book/price, casMow/price, sales/price, and yield-have significant positive expected return attributions, ranging between 51 and 167 basis points for one unit of exposure. These expected payoffs are significant at the 1 percent level, except for casMow/price, which is significant at the 10 percent level. Also, the number of times the financial ratios have a cross-sectional t-statistic greater 2 than in absolute value ranges from 13 to 18, which is much higher than would occur by chance alone. We noted earlier that, under appropriate simplifying assumptions, the DDM reduces to simple financial ratios. Now we have found empirical evidence of an intimate relation between such ratios and DDM expected return.29 This evidence supports the hypothesis that these ratios are mere proxies for value (a notion te directly in a later section). The beta and sigma attributes are also tied positively and significantly to DDM expected return. These relations are consistent with an expected reward for bearing risk. The average expected turn to earningstorpedo,too, is significantly positive. Because DDM expected return is derived from analysts' earnings estimates, which tend to be overly optimistic for high-growth stocks, this rel tionship is not surprising.3o Significant associations between DDM expected return and price-based attributes may arise from changes in stock price tha unrelated to changes in value.3l Price movements consistent with changes in value leave DDM expected return unaffected, hence induce no correlation with other attributes. Price movements unrelated to value, however, affect DDM expected return as well as price-based attributes, thereby inducing a correlation. For instance a decline in price raises a stock's position on the low-price scale. If unassociated with a change in value, the price decline also its raises DDM expected return>* Price-based attributes include the simple fi- . nancial ratios, but even more directly price-related are measures such as residual-return reversal and potential short-term tax-lossselling. These measures are significantly related to DDM expected return.
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EQUITY MANAGEMENT.
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EQUITY MANAGEMENT Quantitative Anal
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To Ilene, Lauren, Julie, Sam, and E
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CONTENTS Foreword by Harry M. Marko
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Contents ix Chapter 4 Calendar Anom
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Contents xi Implications 272 High-D
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FOREWORD by Harry M. Markowitz, Nob
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Foreword xv In practice, of course,
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Foreword xvii that an RDM would con
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xix
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INTRODUCTION Life on the Leading Ed
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Life on the Leading Edge 3 tion abo
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Life on the Leading Edge 5 clude th
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Life on the Edge Leading 7 stocks t
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Life on the Leading Edge 9 . Quanti
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Life on the Leading Edge 11 By the
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Life on the Leading Edge 13 ple, st
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Life on the Leading Edge 15 find be
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Life on the Leading Edge 17 equal t
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P A R T ONE Selecting Securities A
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Selectine Securities 21 stocks. Suc
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selecting secunties 23 unmoved by s
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CHAPTER 1 The Complexity of the Sto
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The Complexity of the Stock Market
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The Complexity of the St& Market 31
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The Complexity of the St& Market 37
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The of the Complexity Stock Market
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The Comdexitv of the Stock Market 4
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V 7
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Disentangling Equity Return Regular
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Disentangling Equity Rehun Regulari
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Disentangling Equity Rehun Regulari
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Page 127 and 128: 106 selecting securities Street Jou
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Page 169 and 170: l48 SelectirlE securities a market
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166 selecting securities returns ac
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168 selecting securities ket return
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~ more 170 Selectine securities tiv
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h h h h W v ) 000000 m N m w r "80q
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~~~ ~ ~~ 174 selecting securities A
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176 selecting securities hibit feed
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178 Seledine securities multivariat
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-2 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 18
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182 selecting securities rate produ
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184 Seledine Securities 11. Further
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186 Seleaine securities REFERENCES
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188 selecting securities Fama, E. a
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190 selecting securities Miller, E.
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194 Selectine Securities modeling p
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196 selecting securities surement e
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Earnings Estimates, Predictor Speaf
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Earnings Estimates, Predictor Speci
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0 a I "F c2 . 2 0
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216 selecting securities The Return
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U) J U) C Q) U) C S r jo-0 eke I C
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?68% $1-0 I 220
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222 Seleaine Securitiff ings data f
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224 selecting securities 4. The dif
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226 selecting securities 20. Note t
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230 Managing Portfolios have concen
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232 Managing Portfolios portfolios.
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234 Manaeine Portfolios of investme
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236 Managing Portfolios There is, n
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238 Managing Portfolios bound to ig
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240 Managing Portfolios expected to
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242 Managing Portfolios mance attri
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244 Managing Portfolios those inves
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246 Managing Portfolios vide a bigg
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248 Managing Portfolios If the firm
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250 Managing Portfolios REFERENCE J
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252 Managing Portfolios This invest
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254 Managing Portfolios FIGURE S-l
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256 Managing Portfolios manager‘s
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258 Managing Portfolios FIGURE S 4
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260 Managing Portfolios Imposition
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264 Managing Portfolios Recent stud
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High-Definition Style Rotation 267
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0 N
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272 Managing Portfolios TABLE 10-2
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274 Managing Portfolios ing pure re
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276 Managing Portfolios HIGH-DEFINI
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278 Managing Portfolios - FIGURE 10
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280 Managing Portfolios FIGURE 10-S
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282 Managing Portfolios REFERENCES
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284 Expanding Opportunities and “
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286 Expanding Opportunities such as
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290 ExpandingOpprtunities vided sho
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292 Expandingoppo~ties F I G U R E
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294 Expanding Opportunities F I G U
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2% ExpandingOpportunities FIGURE 11
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298 Expanding Opportunities Typical
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300 Expandingopportunities F I G U
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302 Expanding Opportunities news st
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304 ExpandingOpportunities dinate l
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306 ExpandingOpportunities Also, ma
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308 Expanding Opportunities FIGURE
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310 Expanding oppo~ties -and- . 199
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312 ExpandingOpportunities applied
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314 Expanding Opportunities A secur
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316 ExpandingOpportunities in 1987,
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318 Expanding Opportunities the $4.
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320 Expanding Opportunities portfol
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322 Expanding Opportunities managem
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324 Expanding Opportunities The sec
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326 Expanding Opportunities Overall
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328 Expanding Opportunities risen o
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330 Expanding Opportunities lio and
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332 Expanding Opportunities FIGURE
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334 Expanding Opportunities , use o
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The Long and Short on Long-Short 33
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340
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Uptick rules can delay, or in some
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344 Expanding Opportunities expecte
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Nonsymmetrical distributions of sec
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11. We assume a futures margin of 4
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350 Expanding Opportunities see, lo
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352 Expanding Opportunities case, t
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Trading Costs Some other costs of l
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356 Expanding Opportunities We use
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358 Expanding The optimal portfolio
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360 Expanding Opportunities N H = C
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362 Expanding Opportunities . Consi
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364 Expanding Opportunities mark se
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366 Expanding Opportunities not be
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370 Expanding Opportunities securit
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372 Expanding Opportunities maximiz
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374 ExpandingOpportunities uity ret
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376 Expanding Opportunities may be
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378 Expanding Opportunities from se
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hance good performance, but they ca
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382 Name Index Clarke, Roger G., 25
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384 Name Index Levis, M., 174,175,1
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386 Name Index Swanson, H., 183,188
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388 Subject Index Disentangling equ
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390 Subied Index MAE, 170,182 Marke
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392 Subiect Jndex Security analysis
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