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212 selecting securities Cumulative return under method 1 (flash/consensus data) is greater than cumulative return under method 2 (flash/universe average data), and the differential in favor of.method 1 tends to grow over time. Under method 1, cumulative return grows to nearly 34 percent over the period, compared with 30.5 percent under met 2?9 This finding is consistent with the notion that treatment of missing values via method 2 entails more measurement error than treatment via method 1. Method 2, in other words, ignores useful data that method 1 incorporates. As a result, the return-trend relationship is biased downward when trend is specified according to method 2. To help ensure inclusion of the best estimates in computing predictors, one can employ a stepwise process that relies best on the data available for a given company at a given time. On the basis of theory, empirical evidence, experience with data, intuition, or other relevant considerations, one first determines the preferred ranking .of all available data items. Specification of predictors then relies on this sequence. For example, if the most recent estimate is believed to be the most accurate, followed by the &week flash mean, the consensus mean industry mean, and the universe mean, the value for a given pre for each company would be calculated on the basis of this sequence, according to. data availability. As data availability will vary across different companies, computed predictor values will be based upon different data items. But they wil constitute the most accurate specifications available for each company at a given time. PREDICTOR SPECIFICATION AND ANALYST COVERAGE The issues that arise in earnings predictor specification become more complex as the number of analysts covering a stock increases. Consider a company followed by only one analyst: The consensus mean, the flash mean, and the most recent estimate collapse the to same value, and choice of predictor specification becomes a trivial issue. For companies with more than one analyst, however, the sensus mean wil likely differ from the flash mean and the most re cent estimate. As a result, different specifications will result in different predictor values. One is then faced with the problem of
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EQUITY MANAGEMENT.
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EQUITY MANAGEMENT Quantitative Anal
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To Ilene, Lauren, Julie, Sam, and E
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CONTENTS Foreword by Harry M. Marko
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Contents ix Chapter 4 Calendar Anom
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Contents xi Implications 272 High-D
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FOREWORD by Harry M. Markowitz, Nob
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Foreword xv In practice, of course,
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Foreword xvii that an RDM would con
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xix
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INTRODUCTION Life on the Leading Ed
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Life on the Leading Edge 3 tion abo
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Life on the Leading Edge 5 clude th
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Life on the Edge Leading 7 stocks t
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Life on the Leading Edge 9 . Quanti
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Life on the Leading Edge 11 By the
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Life on the Leading Edge 13 ple, st
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Life on the Leading Edge 15 find be
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Life on the Leading Edge 17 equal t
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P A R T ONE Selecting Securities A
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Selectine Securities 21 stocks. Suc
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selecting secunties 23 unmoved by s
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CHAPTER 1 The Complexity of the Sto
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The Complexity of the Stock Market
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The Complexity of the St& Market 31
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The Complexity of the St& Market 37
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The of the Complexity Stock Market
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The Comdexitv of the Stock Market 4
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V 7
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Disentangling Equity Return Regular
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Disentangling Equity Rehun Regulari
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Disentangling Equity Rehun Regulari
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64 selecting securities aged 59 bas
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66 selecting Securities FIGURE 2-2
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68 selecting securities FIGURE 2-3
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70 selecting securities tic of 17.8
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72 selecting securities Some Implic
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74 selecting securities Table 2-2 d
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I l
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82 Seleaine Securities these time-s
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84 selecting securities of 9.7. The
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86 selecting securities 2. There ar
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and deferring gains [as per Constan
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90 selecting securities 35. For exa
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92 selecting securities 49. Before
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94 selecting securities Ball, R. 19
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96 selecting securities Iowa, Ames.
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98 Seleaine securities James, W. an
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100 selecting securities Nicholson,
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102 selecting securities Tinic, S.
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104 selecting securities VALUE AND
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106 selecting securities Street Jou
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108 Selectine Securities This is no
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110 selecting securities plaining s
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112
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114 selecting securities transient
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116 selecting securities Na'ive Exp
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118 selecting securities (1988c)l.
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l20 selecting securities average of
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124 selecting securities We have de
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126 selecting securities movements
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l28 selecting securities 34. Pensio
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130 selecting securities Einhom, S.
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132 Selectine securities Poterba, J
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136 selecting securities The availa
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138 selecting securities subsequent
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142 Selectine securities FIGURE 4-2
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144 selecting securities others usi
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146 Selectine Securities FIGURE 4-3
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l48 SelectirlE securities a market
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150 . selecringsecurities There is
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152 selecting securities 1981 and 1
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154 seleding securities Chari,V., R
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156 Selectine securities McNichols,
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Page 207 and 208: 186 Seleaine securities REFERENCES
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Page 251 and 252: 230 Managing Portfolios have concen
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264 Managing Portfolios Recent stud
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High-Definition Style Rotation 267
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0 N
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272 Managing Portfolios TABLE 10-2
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274 Managing Portfolios ing pure re
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276 Managing Portfolios HIGH-DEFINI
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278 Managing Portfolios - FIGURE 10
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280 Managing Portfolios FIGURE 10-S
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282 Managing Portfolios REFERENCES
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284 Expanding Opportunities and “
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286 Expanding Opportunities such as
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290 ExpandingOpprtunities vided sho
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292 Expandingoppo~ties F I G U R E
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294 Expanding Opportunities F I G U
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2% ExpandingOpportunities FIGURE 11
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298 Expanding Opportunities Typical
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300 Expandingopportunities F I G U
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302 Expanding Opportunities news st
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304 ExpandingOpportunities dinate l
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306 ExpandingOpportunities Also, ma
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308 Expanding Opportunities FIGURE
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310 Expanding oppo~ties -and- . 199
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312 ExpandingOpportunities applied
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314 Expanding Opportunities A secur
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316 ExpandingOpportunities in 1987,
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318 Expanding Opportunities the $4.
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320 Expanding Opportunities portfol
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322 Expanding Opportunities managem
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324 Expanding Opportunities The sec
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326 Expanding Opportunities Overall
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328 Expanding Opportunities risen o
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330 Expanding Opportunities lio and
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332 Expanding Opportunities FIGURE
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334 Expanding Opportunities , use o
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The Long and Short on Long-Short 33
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340
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Uptick rules can delay, or in some
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344 Expanding Opportunities expecte
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Nonsymmetrical distributions of sec
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11. We assume a futures margin of 4
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350 Expanding Opportunities see, lo
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352 Expanding Opportunities case, t
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Trading Costs Some other costs of l
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356 Expanding Opportunities We use
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358 Expanding The optimal portfolio
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360 Expanding Opportunities N H = C
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362 Expanding Opportunities . Consi
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364 Expanding Opportunities mark se
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366 Expanding Opportunities not be
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370 Expanding Opportunities securit
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372 Expanding Opportunities maximiz
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374 ExpandingOpportunities uity ret
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376 Expanding Opportunities may be
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378 Expanding Opportunities from se
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hance good performance, but they ca
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382 Name Index Clarke, Roger G., 25
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384 Name Index Levis, M., 174,175,1
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386 Name Index Swanson, H., 183,188
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388 Subject Index Disentangling equ
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390 Subied Index MAE, 170,182 Marke
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392 Subiect Jndex Security analysis
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