Monthly Bulletin April 2008 - European Central Bank - Europa

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Growth rates for intra-annual periods may be derived by adapting formula g). For example, the month-on-month growth rate a M may be t calculated as: revaluations, in turn yielding seasonally adjusted transactions. Seasonal (and trading day) factors are revised at annual intervals or as required. h) M a t = ⎛ I t ⎝ ⎜ I t−1 ⎞ −1⎟ ×100 ⎠ RELATING TO SECTIONS 3.1 TO 3.5 EQUALITY OF USES AND RESOURCES Finally, the three-month moving average (centred) for the annual growth rate of M3 is obtained as (a t+1 + a t + a t-1 )/3, where a t is defined as in f) or g) above. CALCULATION OF GROWTH RATES FOR QUARTERLY SERIES If F t Q and L t-3 are defined as above, the index I t of adjusted outstanding amounts for the quarter ending in month t is defined as: i) I t = I t−3 × ⎛ ⎜ 1+ ⎝ F Q t L t−3 The annual growth rate in the four quarters ending in month t, i.e. a t , may be calculated using formula g). SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF THE EURO AREA MONETARY STATISTICS 1 The approach used relies on a multiplicative decomposition through X-12-ARIMA. 2 The seasonal adjustment may include a day-of-theweek adjustment, and for some series is carried out indirectly by means of a linear combination of components. In particular, this is the case for M3, derived by aggregating the seasonally adjusted series for M1, M2 less M1, and M3 less M2. The seasonal adjustment procedures are first applied to the index of adjusted outstanding amounts. 3 The resulting estimates of the seasonal factors are then applied to the levels and to the adjustments arising from reclassifications and ⎞ ⎟ ⎠ In Table 3.1 the data conform to a basic accounting identity. As regards non-financial transactions, total uses equal total resources for each transaction category. Likewise in the financial account, this accounting identity is also reflected, i.e. for each financial instrument category, total transactions in financial assets equal total transactions in liabilities. In the other changes in assets account and the financial balance sheets, total financial assets equal total liabilities for each financial instrument category, with the exception of monetary gold and special drawing rights, which are by definition not a liability of any sector. CALCULATION OF BALANCING ITEMS The balancing items at the end of each account in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 are computed as follows: The trade balance equals imports minus exports of goods and services vis-à-vis the euro area rest of the world. 1 For details, see “Seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates and HICP for the euro area”, ECB (August 2000) and the “Statistics” section of the ECB’s website (www.ecb.europa. eu), under the “Money, banking and financial markets” sub-section. 2 For details, see Findley, D., Monsell, B., Bell, W., Otto, M., and Chen, B. C. (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 2, pp.127-152, or “X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual”, Time Series Staff, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. For internal purposes, the model-based approach of TRAMO- SEATS is also used. For details on TRAMO-SEATS, see Gomez, V. and Maravall, A. (1996), “Programs TRAMO and SEATS: Instructions for the User”, Banco de España, Working Paper No. 9628, Madrid. 3 It follows that for the seasonally adjusted series, the level of the index for the base period, i.e. December 2001, generally differs from 100, reflecting the seasonality of that month. ECB Monthly Bulletin S 78 April 2008
EURO AREA STATISTICS Technical notes Net operating surplus and mixed income is defined for resident sectors only and is calculated as gross value added (gross domestic product at market prices for the euro area) minus compensation of employees (uses) minus other taxes less subsidies on production (uses) minus consumption of fixed capital (uses). Net national income is defined for resident sectors only and is computed as net operating surplus and mixed income plus compensation of employees (resources) plus taxes less subsidies on production (resources) plus net property income (resources minus uses). Net disposable income is also only defined for resident sectors and equals net national income plus net current taxes on income and wealth (resources minus uses) plus net social contributions (resources minus uses) plus net social benefits other than social transfers in kind (resources minus uses) plus net other current transfers (resources minus uses). Net saving is defined for resident sectors and is calculated as net disposable income plus the net adjustment for the change in net equity of households in pension funds reserves (resources minus uses) minus final consumption expenditure (uses). For the rest of the world, current external account is compiled as the trade balance plus all net income (resources minus uses). Net lending/net borrowing is computed from the capital account as net saving plus net capital transfers (resources minus uses) minus gross capital formation (uses) minus acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-financial assets (uses) plus consumption of fixed capital (resources). It can also be calculated in the financial account as total transactions in financial assets minus total transactions in liabilities (also known as changes in netfinancial worth (wealth) due to transactions). For the household and non-financial corporation sectors, there is a statistical discrepancy between these balancing items computed from the capital account and the financial account, respectively. Changes in net worth (wealth) are calculated as changes in net worth (wealth) due to savings and capital transfers plus other changes in net financial worth (wealth). It currently excludes other changes in non-financial assets due to unavailability of data. Net financial worth (wealth) is calculated as total financial assets minus total liabilities, whereas changes in net financial worth (wealth) are equal to the sum of changes in net financial worth (wealth) due to transactions (lending/ net borrowing from the financial account) and other changes in net financial worth (wealth). Finally, changes in net financial worth (wealth) due to transactions are computed as total transactions in financial assets minus total transactions in liabilities and other changes in net financial worth (wealth) are calculated as total other changes in financial assets minus total other changes in liabilities. RELATING TO SECTION 4.3 AND 4.4 CALCULATION OF GROWTH RATES FOR DEBT SECURITIES AND QUOTED SHARES Growth rates are calculated on the basis of financial transactions and therefore exclude reclassifications, revaluations, exchange rate variations and any other changes which do not arise from transactions. They may be calculated from transactions or from the index of notional stocks. If N t M represents the transactions (net issues) in month t and L t the level outstanding at the end of the month t, the index I t of notional stocks in month t is defined as: j) ⎛ I t = I t−1 × ⎜1+ ⎝ N t L t−1 As a base, the index is set equal to 100 on December 2001. The growth rate a t for month t corresponding to the change in the 12 months ending in month t, may be calculated using either of the following two formulae: ⎞ ⎟ ⎠ ECB Monthly Bulletin April 2008S 79
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EN EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MONTHLY BU
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© European Central Bank 2008 Addre
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ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES LU Luxembou
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months, moderating only gradually o
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ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
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ARTICLES BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN THE
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Thereafter, in the early part of th
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from an investment project in order
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of fixed capital investment, but al
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ARTICLES of 2007. However, as monet
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ARTICLES Relationship between inves
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SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF ECONOMIC AC
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designed to extract the common move
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Chart 2 Evolution of GDP forecast p
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DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EU ARRANGEMENTS
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ability to deliver results, and pro
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anking acts in line with the spirit
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There is a close interrelationship
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ARTICLES 2. In a crisis situation,
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the role of the consolidating super
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The ECB strongly supports the initi
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CONTENTS 1 EURO AREA OVERVIEW Summa
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EURO AREA OVERVIEW Summary of econo
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EURO AREA STATISTICS Monetary polic
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EURO AREA STATISTICS Monetary polic
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EURO AREA STATISTICS Money, banking
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Page 115 and 116: EURO AREA STATISTICS Euro area acco
Page 123 and 124: FINANCIAL MARKETS 4 4.1 Securities,
Page 125 and 126: EURO AREA STATISTICS Financial mark
Page 135 and 136: PRICES, OUTPUT, DEMAND AND LABOUR M
Page 137 and 138: EURO AREA STATISTICS Prices, output
Page 143 and 144: GOVERNMENT FINANCE 6 6.1 Revenue, e
Page 145 and 146: EURO AREA STATISTICS Government fin
Page 147 and 148: EURO AREA STATISTICS Government fin
Page 149 and 150: EURO AREA STATISTICS External trans
Page 161 and 162: EURO AREA STATISTICS Exchange rates
Page 163 and 164: EURO AREA STATISTICS Developments o
Page 165: TECHNICAL NOTES RELATING TO THE EUR
Page 169: EURO AREA STATISTICS Technical note
Page 172 and 173: OVERVIEW Developments in key indica
Page 174 and 175: EURO AREA ACCOUNTS Section 3.1 show
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Page 178 and 179: using harmonised criteria and defin
Page 180 and 181: statistics, such as the MFI consoli
Page 183 and 184: ANNEXES CHRONOLOGY OF MONETARY POLI
Page 185: CHRONOLOGY 5 JULY, 2 AUGUST, 6 SEPT
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Page 190 and 191: 853 “The cyclical behaviour of eq
Page 192 and 193: “Bond markets and long-term inter
Page 194 and 195: Debt (general government): the gros
Page 196 and 197: Fixed rate tender: a tender procedu
Page 198 and 199: MFI interest rates: the interest ra
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Monthly Bulletin April 2008 - European Central Bank - Europa

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