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XII-3 million. The E(NPV) for oil production within the additional area is $47 million at 10%. The E(NPV) at 10% for gas exploration in the combined area is $133 million. See Figure 8. The E(NPV) for gas production within the boundaries of the WIPP site is $67 million. The E(NPV) for gas production within the additional area is about $69 million. Taxes and potentially foregone tax revenues were also srudied via the simulation. Values for severance, state and corporate taxes, as well as royalty payments were simulated. Expected present values (E(PV)s) are presented in Tables 2 and 3 for oil and gas at a 15 % discount rate. Because these figures are from separate simulations, values from the additional and WIPP areas may not exactly sum to reported combined area values. Values associated with a 10% rate are in the appendix. SIMULATION METHOD Oil and gas reserve estimates for the WIPP site, additional area, and combined area were provided by specialists at the New Mexico Bureau of Mines & Mineral Resources. A simulation model was constructed for both oil and gas in each of the three zones of interest. Key model inputs, in addition to reserve data, included the price of the commodity, the unit cost of extraction, severance tax rates, state and federal corporate taxes, the depreciation schedule assumed for capital investments, and the discount rate. Development of a method to anticipate future market prices for oil and gas was a key issue. Time units were years, and the time frame simulated was 1995-2030. Forecasting is as much an inexact art as a science, particularly when the forecasting horizon is 35 years. Thus, although historical prices for Eddy County oil and gas were modeled using time-series methods, a simulation approach was used to value these resources. Annual market prices were simulated using a random-walk methodology (an excellent reference is Karlin and Taylor, 1975), which is discussed below. Depletion was calculated using the standard methodology, which may be found in Stermole and Stermole (1993). The time frame considered was 1995-2030. Market prices and extraction and wellmaintenance costs were considered on an annual basis, and anticipated productivity data were provided on an annual basis. A sample (this sample does not include actual data used in the srudy for both investment and operating costs) simulation run for the years 1995-2001 is provided in Table I. Information Only
Key assumptions and features associated with the oil and gas cash flows used in the simulation include: All calculations are performed from I January 1995. That is, oil and gas extraction activities in the three zones of interest are treated as a capital project that was evaluated (and undertaken) on 1 Januarv 1995. Reasons for this starting date are found elsewhere in this report. Drilling capital expenditures are recovered using a seven year Accelerated Cost Recovery System depreciation method (Stermo!e and Stermole, 1993). Revenues are treated as if realized monthly, and taxes and royalties are treated as if they are paid on a quarterly basis. Information Only XII-4 Simulations were run for each year from 1995 to 2030. Each simulation run, represented as an individual data set in the attached appendix, consisted of 48 simulated oil price "paths" from 1995 to 2030. The Monte Carlo simulations generated numbers for each year for the present value of the market value of the reserves (PV Rev) and the present value of the total cash flow for each simulation run (PV CFlow). As is standard practice in financial analysis (for example see Levy and Samat, 1994), cash flows attributable to the decision to drill for oil or gas are the sum of income after taxes, depreciation, and depletion. Summary data are also presented for the present value of severance-tax flows (PV SevTax), state corporate tax flows (PV StateTax), federal corporate tax flows (PV Corp Tax), and royalty-payment flows (PV Royal). All present values and NPVs are expected values, and are averages of many simulation runs. Standard deviations (STD), maximum values (MAX), minimum values (MIN), and median values are also provided in the attachments for each individual simulation. Specifics regarding simulation input variables are provided below. Market prices Prices for oil (per barrel) and gas (per thousand cubic feet) were generated using a random walk method known as a Wiener process. Historical Eddy County oil and gas prices were analyzed
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FINAL REpORT Evaluation of Mineral
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY E-l The Waste Iso
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E-3 Resources and reserves of the 1
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£-5 Expected Net Present Values fo
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E-7 Expected revenue present values
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E-9 VOLUME 1 Chapter I POTENTIAL IN
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E-11 VOLUME 1 Chapter II ENVIRONMEN
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E-13 VOLUME 2 Chapter III OVERVIEW
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E-15 VOLUME 2 Chapter IV . FUTURE M
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E-17 VOLUME 2 Chapter VI MINING TEC
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E-19 VOLUME 2 Chapter VII METHOD OF
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Information Only E-21 Figure 28. Th
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E-23 VOLUME 2 Chapter VIII VALUATIO
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E-25 VOLUME 3 Chapter IX REGULATION
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M atnx · aCI'd" IZmg . . . . . . .
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E-29 PROJECTED FUTURE OIL AND GAS P
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E-31 Figure 27. Casing program of t
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Information Only E-33 Figure 58. Ty
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E-35 Table 15E. Los Medanos Bone Sp
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E-37 Table 5. Expected Net Present
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Evaluation of Mineral Resources at
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I-I POTENTIAL INDUSTRIAL MINERAL RE
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The report, authored by C. M. Nethe
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With full access to the surface, th
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occurrences in the WIPP site for th
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depth of 1000 ft. Rustler gypsum un
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is 320 acres, (3) drilling restrict
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1120 acres. Based on hydrocarbon re
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ls of the crude oil (43%), 211 BCF
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obtained by use of a planimeter. Th
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1-19 Keesey, 1.1., 1979. (See Sipes
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Sipes, Williamson, and Aycock, 1977
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Table I. Evaluation of mineral reso
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Table I. (conL) Quantity present Pr
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1-27 Table 3. Effect of allowing th
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II-i TABLE OF CONTENTS ENVIRONMENTA
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II-ii New Mexicp Water Quality Act
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the Federal Register, National Arch
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II-4 U.S. Environmental Protection
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II-6 U.S. Environmental Protection
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• • • • Filing and other ad
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0-10 • Transfers (43 CFR 3106)
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Operations that involve subsurface
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Pennits. special reports. and fees
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RCRA Subtitle D - Solid Waste RCRA
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• National secondary drinking wat
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the withdrawal area that are leased
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• Notification requirements when
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New Mexico Naroral Resources Depamn
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Permits, special repons, and fees I
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II-28 Permits. special reports. and
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II-30 Operations that extract oil a
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industrial, commercial, mining, and
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• Prohibition on disposing of any
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References New Mexico Game and Fish
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Clean Air Act TABLE 1 hnpact level
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TABLE 1 hnpact level of statutes an
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TABLE 2 Impact level of statutes an
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FINAL REPORT Evaluation of Mineral
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Table 2. K 2 0 equivalent wt. % of
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The United States ranked fourth in
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have extensive sections of laminate
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poor potash deposits probably preci
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followed by froth flotation (Fig. 6
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Information Only III-ll Hayes P. T.
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III-13 Fig.!. Location of the Carls
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III-IS Figure 3. Diagrammatic north
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Fig. 5. Vertical cyclic sequences i
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Fig. 7. Simplified potash crystalli
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1lI-21 Table 2. KzO Equivalent wt.
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llI-23 Table 4. Potash Statistics f
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m-25 Table 6. General Mineralogy an
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IV-l FUTURE MI~lNG TECHNOLOGY Georg
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Along with the improvements listed
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Saskatchewan and in thick but highl
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V-i TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction
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Flotation chemistry Recently, non-e
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tures resulting in high salt solubi
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VI-ii Table 8. Case 1 - 4th ore zon
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Vl-2 of these three chemicals plus
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shows barrier pillars, but their us
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maintenance, and periodic replaceme
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Therefore, the engineering economic
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_J"L LJ::L.J DO DO ~ LJ L '"-':-:1.
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II IK'~II II Ṇ ... , ~ > . VI '-
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Vl-14 Table 1. Carlsbad Potash Prod
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Table 3. Salient potash l statistic
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Table 5. Case 1 - 4th ORE ZONE CASH
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u j u ~ uu iTIm!.g!c!~y•. ( j ~,t
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Table 13. Case 3 - 4th ORE ZONE CAS
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Table 15. Case 3 • 10th ORE ZONE
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_------._._ Table 17. Summary of En
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Table 19. Mining Life Versus Cut-of
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VII-i TABLE OF CONTENTS FORMULATION
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Information Only VII-iii Figure 32.
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VII-l MEmOD OF POTASH RESERVE EVALU
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Information Only VII-3 As mentioned
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VII-5 DEFINITIONS OF ORE RESERVES V
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Vll-7 hole records. That method can
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VII-9 tonnage factor equal to 14.8
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VlI-ll consistent with the known st
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VII-13 REFERENCES John, C. B., Chee
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VII-15 Table 2 Resources and reserv
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Table 4. In-ulace resources for oth
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Vll-19 2 6 5 4 3 2 ~..\d..J-.·· :
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VII-21 2 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 ·····
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0 -l: 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-1.5 1.5-2
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~ :::r ~o _. a. (1) .... C:::N ~o _
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Information Only :e =r »Q Q.CD --
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Information Only _. ~-:T >Q c.co cN
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Information Only 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.
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Information Only :e :::r ;x>° cN .
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Information Only 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.
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Figure 20 4th Ore Zone Equivalent L
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- L_' ••__1 ---' ~ .....__ I 16
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- I.-... __J __J k. _ 14 12 --- ---
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VTI-43 2 6 5 4 3 2 ,, , 2 M..,..---
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Vll-45 2 6 5 4 3 2 , 3 35 '36 •
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VII-47 2 6 5 4 3 2 , 4 25 -374 ~"1
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Information Only 6v-IlA o- ..... »
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Information Only o- ..... »::r .£
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0 - I\:l >< )( )( - - 0 0 0- CAl 0
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Information Only .... 9 >::T' .9:0
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Information Only -'" o »~ -enCl) .
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Information Only ~ a »st .9:0 -c:
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Information Only -L o »:T .Q;o c::
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Information Only ..... o »g. .9:0
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L.... I _ - , .. __J _....... -~ 25
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L . . ----.. - ___~J ~. J I ....,--
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Vll-69 2 6 5 4 3 2 • '34 .·--·
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Vll-71 2 6 5 4 3 2 '_'_,~L::~--L·~
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Vll-73 2 6 5 4 3 2 ~ l ----- ~~.~~~
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Vll·75 2 6 5 4 3 2 - --~';~_:~~~'"
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o Tons of Ore ~ N Co) ~ C1l en 0 0
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Information Only ~ =so CD ~ _'::J O
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Information Only (0-:T o.... CD _N
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Information Only
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Information Only ~ =r o.., co N o ~
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Information Only to-:T ọ .... CD
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L... ..- .. .J , ---' , ...-.. 30 2
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VIII-I VIII VALUATION OF POTASH RES
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VIII-3 With respect to actual explo
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VIII-5 the simulation include: All
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Information Only VIII-7 data were u
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VIII-9 Potash Simulation Example Ye
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Table 2. Expected revenue present v
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VIII-13 APPENDIX This Appendix cont
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VIII-IS Scenario 2, 15 % discount r
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VIII-17 Lang WIPP Site Data, Case 1
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VIII-19 Lang WIPP Site Data. Case 2
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VIII-23 Lang WIPP Site Dala, Case 1
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VIII-29 Sylvite WIPP Site Data, Sce
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VIII-31 Sylvite WIPP Site Data, Sce
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VIII-33 Lang Combined Area Data, Ca
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vm·35 Lang Combined Area Data, Cas
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VIII-41 Lang Combined Data, Case 1,
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VIII-51 Sylvite Combined Area Data,
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VIII-53 Sylv~e Combined Area Data,
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VIII-55 Sylvite Combined Area Data,
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VIII-57 Lang Additional Area Data,
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VIII-59 Lang Addnional Area Data, C
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VIlI-61 Lang Additional Area Data,
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VIII-63 Lang Addition Data, Case 1,
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VIlI-69 Sylvite Additional Area Dat
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VIII-71 Sylvite Additional Area Dat
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Certificatioll _ We certify under p
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IX-i TABLE OF CONTENTS REGULATIONS
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egulations for drilling oil and gas
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IX-4 characteristics must be favora
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IX-6 ENERGY, STATE OF NEW MEX ICO M
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IX-8 -3- Case No. 9316 Order No. R-
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IX-lO -seaseNo. 931 6 Order No. R-I
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IX-12 -7- ea s e No. 9316 O~de~ No.
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IX-14 -9- Case No. 9316 Order No. R
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IX-16 -11 - Case No. 9316 Order No.
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IX-I8 -13- Ca s e No. 9316 Order No
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In attempting to accomplish. this,
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IX-22 provided by applicable laws a
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IX-24 the depth of the ore plus ten
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IX-26 IV. LQcation Qf Wells· and N
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IX-28 C. In the event the increased
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IX-30 -2- EXHIBIT "A" con'd Section
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IX-32 -u- EXHIBIT "A" eon'd LEA COU
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IX-34 -6- EXHIBIT "A" eon'd T~VNSHI
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IX-36 -7- EXHIBIT "A" eon"d EDDY CO
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J ' , IX-38 ( Friday November 18. 1
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- IX-40 . , '. Of: .m~la c ,.lha O.
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-_...:-- IX-42 Federal Regisler I V
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_-- -_.. ----_ ..-- ----- IX-44 , .
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- ( ( Fedenl ltagistu / Vol. s.1. N
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IX-48 Federal R~ster " Vol. 53, No,
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IX-50 i 1 I ""'""", Federal Ret-ste
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I IX-52 Federal Register I Vol. 53.
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•• .w :"-=~},~0\;!!'.I&4 ••
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IX-56 CHECKLIST for ADMINISTRATIVE
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IX-58 Chapter IX REGULATIONS PERTAI
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'" IX-60 2 ehe U.S. !DVlro~t&l lro
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IX-62 Chapter IX REGULATIONS PERTAI
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IX-64 TABLE OF CONTENrS STATEMENT O
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IX-66 C. Wildlife The BLM shall: 1.
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IX-68 of the DOE (the contributing
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~ ". ~ ~. ._ f - IX-70 ,. ,. If 9-
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IX-72 MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING B
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IX-74 c. Use avoidance as the prima
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IX-76 and oilleasts adjacent to the
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IX-78 2. The DOr ail"ee3 to: a. For
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THE PAST-DECADE DEVELOPJ.\ilENTS At
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The POC bits and POC cutter blank m
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X-5 Other applications are explorat
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X-7 optimum production, completion,
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Cement additives Research during th
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1994). The productivity of a fractu
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Hydraulic fracturing - acidizing Th
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X-IS Concluding remarks Technology
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X-17 PennWell Books, Tulsa, OK, p.
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low-friction gauge PDC bits: Societ
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XI-i TABLE OF COl'iiENTS SUMMARY OF
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XI-iii Figure 14 Designated oil poo
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Xl·v and boundaries of designated
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Information Only XI-vii TABLES Tabl
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XI-2 will be produced from the deep
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Definitions Several basic definitio
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CCcJ.. From these projections. esti
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ea"ons often do not yield a product
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Information Only XI-IO made it poss
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XI-12 Canyon production is in the T
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Information Only XI-14 the east. In
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Information Only XI-16 (Fig. 25). U
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discovery wells . Developmentdrilli
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the middle part of the Cherry Canyo
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Information Only XI-22 of approxima
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The sucker rods move vertic;i"y up
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Information Only XI-26 The authigen
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XI-28 fore, stratigraphic traps str
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interbedded with dark basinal shale
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(Fig. 51, Table 2) with probable re
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XI-34 Two wells have drilled throug
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Xl-36 that no such structure, and h
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XI-38 REFERENCES Anderson, R., 1977
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Xl-40 Guidebook 44, pp. 175-184. Kl
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Worthington, R. E., 1994, East Shug
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Figure 12. Annual number of oil and
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XI-46 response of oil production to
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XI-48 additional study area. Separa
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XI-50 Producing provi~ce. "'" Nonpr
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XI-52 'f!'
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1 '
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XI-56 A I I ,I . J- ~ 1 o eo 111Unt
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XI-58 A no"" mIl o 0 Tubb t marl -
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!I r--;-----;---"/"--:;--A;r:-;,...
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300 "C CD 1i) 0.200 E o U tn 1.00 .
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.... XI-64 ~45' 104·45' ·r·--·-
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XI-66 t t t t slope into basin FEED
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XI-68 ~'r-~·'--,-----,--,--,4-r--"
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XI-70 · · . ! ! i =:! .. , I .. ,
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XI-n • + o ", .- .:.... • • .
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XI-74 ~r_-':'-- " ,---.,.--.,...--r
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'D tō-:>< Oil: Los Medanos-8and Du
Page 553 and 554: XI-78 --'~r--'--"T--..,..--r--'i'--
Page 555 and 556: XI-80 o 133/8" @ 600 fl 2,000 ! .c:
Page 557 and 558: Paduca (Delaware) Field Annual Oil
Page 559 and 560: ~._- XI-84 Delaware Basin Northwest
Page 561 and 562: XI-86 .,' . . 1-; ~. ~. / ./ 'jl .
Page 563 and 564: XI-88 23 11 8 o o I .5 1ml ! ---- I
Page 565 and 566: XI-90 • ft. _.. iJ ~ -t .... l..1
Page 567 and 568: Cabin Lake Strawn; Phillips Petrole
Page 569 and 570: XI-94 - I · · - . I · · · · "
Page 571 and 572: XI..96 o 13·/.'@650ft 2,000 4,000
Page 573 and 574: Los Medanos Atoka (Gas); Bass Enter
Page 575 and 576: Los Medanos Morrow (Gas); Conoco, I
Page 577 and 578: XI-102 . · . -, , .. 01''' I I " "
Page 579 and 580: Los Medanos-Sand Dunes-Ingle Wells
Page 581 and 582: Quahada Ridge Southeast (Lower Brus
Page 583 and 584: Strawn Projected Future Annual Gas
Page 585 and 586: Morrow Projected Future Annual Gas
Page 587 and 588: TABLE 6. Surface and bottom-hole lo
Page 589 and 590: Table 15A. Livingston Ridge Delawar
Page 591 and 592: Table 15C. Cabin Lake Delaware pool
Page 593 and 594: Table 15E. Los Medanos Bone Spring
Page 595 and 596: TABLE 15F. (Continued) XI-131 Year
Page 597 and 598: ~ TABLE 15G. (Continued) XI~133 Yea
Page 599 and 600: Table 16. Projected future annual o
Page 601 and 602: XII-i TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY RES
Page 603: XII-2 additional area gas reserves
Page 607 and 608: contribute te alterations in the se
Page 609 and 610: XII-8 160 Combined Area Oil Revenue
Page 611 and 612: XII-IO 120 Combined Area Oil Revenu
Page 613 and 614: XII-12 Combined Area Oil Cash Flow
Page 615 and 616: XII-14 160 I 140 --r- I Combined Ar
Page 617 and 618: Oil Simulation Example XII-16 Year
Page 619 and 620: XII-18 Table 6. Expected revenue pr
Page 621 and 622: XII-20 WIPP Site Gas. 10% discount
Page 623 and 624: XII-22 WIPP Area Gas, 12.5% Royalti
Page 625 and 626: XII-24 Additional Area Gas, 12.5% R
Page 627 and 628: XIl-26 Combined Area Gas. 12.5% Roy
Page 629 and 630: XII-28 WIPP Area Gas, 12.5% Royalti
Page 631 and 632: XII-30 Additional Area Gas, 12.5% R
Page 633 and 634: XII-32 Combined Area Gas. 12.5% Roy
Page 635 and 636: XII-34 W1PP Site Gas Data, discount
Page 637 and 638: XIl-36 Additional Area Gas Data, di
Page 639 and 640: XII-38 Combined Area Gas Data, disc
Page 641 and 642: XII-40 W1PP Site Gas Data. discount
Page 643 and 644: XII-42 Additional Area Gas Data, di
Page 645 and 646: XII-44 Combined Area Gas Data. disc
Page 647: Information Only XII-46
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