Central Rice Research Institute Annual report...2011-12

Table 48. Kolgomogorov-Sminrov two sample test between
simulate and observed values
Observed Simulated |S m
(x)-S m
’(x)|
S m
(x) S m
’(x)
2001 0.02 0.00 0.02
2002 0.04 0.01 0.02
2003 0.04 0.02 0.01
2004 0.09 0.07 0.01
2005 0.17 0.15 0.02
2006 0.27 0.25 0.02
2007 0.46 0.43 0.02
2008 0.69 0.74 0.05
2009 0.88 1.00 0.12 max
2010 1.00
Market and Policy Research
Impact of WTO on global rice exports with
particular reference to India
The country wise export and import data on rice for
the period 1961 to 2008 were analyzed. The analysis
revealed that the share of world rice trade in total rice
production has expanded from 4.3% during 1960s to
7.0% during the recent period. The rice trade volume
has increased from 7.5 m tonnes per year during 1960s
to 28.6 mt during the last decade. Though India was a
major importer during 1960s, it has turned out to be a
major exporter after the 1994 GATT agreement and occupies
third position next to Thailand and Vietnam.
China was the second largest exporter during 1970s
and its position has been relegated to sixth during the
Fig. 32. Rice exports from India during 1990-91 to 2010-11 (at constant
prices of 2010-11)
recent period. Myanmar, which was a major exporter
during 1960s (fourth position), lost its importance and
relegated to tenth place during the recent years. Other
countries which also emerged with small amounts of
exports are Uruguay, Argentina, Spain and Guyana.
The Herfindahl index, which measures the degree of
concentration, indicates that the concentration of exports
has reduced marginally from 0.165 to 0.156 during
the last five decades. The emerging major importers
during the period 1961 to 2008 were Philippines, Nigeria,
Iran, Iraq, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, South Arabia, South
Africa, UAE, USA and Brazil. Bangladesh, Malaysia
and Indonesia have increased their import volume over
years. The Herfindahl index for imports has substantially
reduced from 0.170 to 0.040, because of the entry
of large number of importers over the last five decades.
The total rice export from India has increased more
than 4 times i.e. from Rs. 2653 crores during pre-WTO
period (1990-94) to Rs. 11500 crores (Fig. 32) during
post-WTO period (2005-09).
India could expand its rice export to 169 countries
after the agreement, which were 103 before the agreement.
Government of India imposed ban on exports of
non-basmati rice from October, 2007 with exceptions
(government to government agreements) to contain food
price inflation in domestic market. As a result, the export
of non-basmati rice has reduced drastically during
2008-09 (0.93 mt), 2009-10 (0.14 mt), and 2010-11
(0.10 mt), from the peak level obtained during 2007-08
(5.29 mt). In spite of restrictions imposed on basmati
rice export in terms of minimum export price and export
tax, government took a decision
to include Pusa-1121 variety
for export under basmati rice category
from October, 2008. Therefore,
the average export of basmati
rice per year has increased from
0.83 mt (2000-04) to 1.39 mt per
year in post-WTO period (2005-
09) and has crossed 2 mt during
2009-10. The average triennium
value of export per year after inclusion
of Pusa–1121 under
basmati category was Rs. 11141
crores (2008-10) and the figure
before inclusion was Rs. 4405
crores (2005-07) i.e. an increase of
153%. Due to increased access of
countries to basmati rice, India
96 CRRI ANNUAL REPORT 2011-12