OECD (2000)

A1
Relative Size of the School-age Population
demand for post-compulsory education in the years ahead. When populations of
these ages were falling it was relatively easy to expand participation rates − but
can these higher levels now be sustained The countries where the population
of 5-14 year-olds is expected to increase by more than 5 per cent from 1998 year
to 2008 year are Denmark, Luxembourg and Turkey; and whereas Denmark and
Luxembourg currently have a comparatively low proportion of 5-14 year-olds, in
Turkey a comparatively high proportion is expected to grow further.
Among 20-29 year-olds, the typical age-band for tertiary education, a
decline by more than 20 per cent in Denmark, Italy, Japan, Portugal and Spain
will ease the pressure on tertiary spending. In Poland and the United States,
by contrast, the population of 20-29 year-olds is expected to increase by 13 and
10 per cent respectively over the next decade putting considerable pressure
on tertiary education systems. In Poland this pressure is combined with rapidly
growing tertiary enrolment rates. In the early 1990s, Poland faced the second
biggest growth in the OECD.
Student demography
is a factor with
a significant influence
on the financial
resources required
for education.
The size of the youth population in a given country shapes the potential
demand for initial education and training. The higher the number of young people,
the greater the potential demand for educational services. Among countries of
comparable wealth, a country with a relatively large youth population would have
to spend a higher percentage of its GDP on education in order to ensure the educational
opportunities that young persons in other countries enjoy. Conversely, if
the relative size of the youth population is smaller, the same country could spend
a lower percentage of its GDP on education and yet achieve similar results.
Chart B1.3A in Indicator B1 shows the effects on educational spending of
differences between countries in the relative size of the youth population. In
Italy, the country with the lowest proportion of 5-29 year-olds, educational
expenditure as a percentage of GDP could be expected to rise by 22 per cent if
the relative size of the youth population in these countries were at the level of
the OECD average. In Mexico, by contrast, expenditure on education could be
expected to be 23 per cent lower if the proportions of 5-29 year-olds were at
the level of the OECD average. In other words, other things being equal,
Mexico would have to increase its investment in educational institutions in
order to reach OECD average spending per student as a percentage of GDP.
DEFINITIONS
Data are derived from
the 1998 OECD
Demographic Database
and from the World
Education Indicators
Pilot Project. Projections
are based on the UN
Population Database.
Columns 1-3 in Table A1.1 show the percentage of 5-14, 15-19 and 20-29
year-olds in the total population. Columns 4-9 show the change in the sizes of
the populations 5-14, 15-19 and 20-29 years of age over the period 1990-2008.
The changes are expressed as percentages relative to the size of the population
in 1998 (index = 100). The statistics cover residents in the country, regardless
of citizenship and of educational or labour market status. Column 10 shows
the number of students enrolled as a percentage of the employed population
25 to 64 years of age. Chart A1.2 shows the development of the index provided
in columns 4-9 of Table A1.1 over the period 1990-2008.
© OECD 2000
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