MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Japan
UK
Sweden
Core CPI SA
Core CPI NSA
Headline CPI
RPI
CPI
CPIF
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2010 100.0 - -1.0 100.0 - -1.0 114.5 - 3.3 223.6 - 4.6 302.5 - 1.2 194.6 - 2.0
2011 99.8 - -0.3 99.8 - -0.3 119.6 - 4.5 235.2 - 5.2 311.4 - 3.0 197.3 - 1.4
2012 (1) 99.8 - 0.0 99.8 - 0.0 122.9 - 2.8 242.6 - 3.2 314.9 - 1.1 199.5 - 1.1
Q3 2011 99.8 - 0.2 99.9 - 0.2 120.1 - 4.7 236.2 - 5.2 311.9 - 3.3 197.2 - 1.6
Q4 2011 99.6 - -0.2 99.7 - -0.2 121.3 - 4.6 238.6 - 5.1 314.1 - 2.7 198.2 - 0.9
Q1 2012 99.9 - 0.1 99.6 - 0.1 121.7 - 3.5 239.6 - 3.7 313.5 - 1.8 198.1 - 1.0
Q2 2012 99.8 - 0.0 99.9 - 0.0 122.7 - 2.8 242.2 - 3.1 315.1 - 1.1 199.4 - 1.0
Q3 2012 (1) 99.6 - -0.2 99.7 - -0.2 123.0 - 2.4 243.1 - 2.9 314.0 - 0.7 199.2 - 1.0
Q4 2012 (1) 99.8 - 0.2 99.9 - 0.2 124.2 - 2.5 245.6 - 2.9 317.0 - 0.9 201.2 - 1.5
Q1 2013 (1) 99.9 - 0.0 99.6 - 0.0 124.7 - 2.4 247.1 - 3.1 316.7 - 1.0 201.5 - 1.7
Q2 2013 (1) 99.9 - 0.1 100.0 - 0.1 125.8 - 2.6 250.2 - 3.3 318.4 - 1.1 202.9 - 1.7
Jan-12 99.7 0.1 -0.1 99.3 -0.3 -0.1 121.1 -0.5 3.6 238.0 -0.6 3.9 311.9 -0.9 1.9 196.9 -0.7 0.9
Feb-12 99.9 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.2 0.1 121.8 0.6 3.4 239.9 0.8 3.7 313.9 0.7 1.9 198.3 0.7 1.1
Mar-12 100.0 0.1 0.2 100.0 0.5 0.3 122.2 0.3 3.5 240.8 0.4 3.6 314.8 0.3 1.5 199.1 0.4 1.1
Apr-12 100.1 0.1 0.2 100.2 0.2 0.2 122.9 0.6 3.0 242.5 0.7 3.5 315.5 0.2 1.3 199.6 0.3 1.0
May-12 99.8 -0.3 -0.1 100.0 -0.2 -0.1 122.8 -0.1 2.8 242.4 0.0 3.1 315.2 -0.1 1.0 199.6 0.0 0.9
Jun-12 99.5 -0.3 -0.2 99.6 -0.4 -0.2 122.3 -0.4 2.4 241.8 -0.2 2.8 314.5 -0.2 1.0 199.1 -0.3 0.9
Jul-12 99.5 0.0 -0.3 99.5 -0.1 -0.3 122.5 0.1 2.6 242.1 0.1 3.2 313.2 -0.4 0.7 198.3 -0.4 0.8
Aug 12 (1) 99.5 0.0 -0.3 99.6 0.1 -0.3 123.1 0.5 2.5 243.0 0.4 2.9 313.6 0.1 0.7 198.6 0.1 0.9
Sep 12 (1) 99.7 0.2 0.0 99.9 0.3 0.0 123.6 0.4 2.3 244.2 0.5 2.6 315.1 0.5 0.6 200.5 1.0 1.2
Oct 12 (1) 99.8 0.1 0.2 100.0 0.1 0.2 123.8 0.2 2.4 244.7 0.2 2.8 316.4 0.4 0.9 200.9 0.2 1.5
Nov 12 (1) 99.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 -0.2 0.2 124.2 0.3 2.5 245.6 0.3 3.0 317.3 0.3 1.0 201.2 0.1 1.4
Dec 12 (1) 99.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0 0.2 124.7 0.4 2.5 246.6 0.4 3.0 317.2 0.0 0.8 201.4 0.1 1.6
Jan 13 (1) 99.9 0.1 0.2 99.5 -0.3 0.2 124.1 -0.5 2.5 245.7 -0.3 3.2 314.8 -0.8 0.9 200.3 -0.6 1.8
Feb 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 124.8 0.5 2.4 247.3 0.6 3.1 317.0 0.7 1.0 201.7 0.7 1.7
Mar 13 (1) 99.8 -0.1 -0.2 99.8 0.3 -0.2 125.1 0.3 2.4 248.2 0.4 3.1 318.2 0.4 1.1 202.6 0.4 1.8
Apr 13 (1) 99.9 0.1 -0.2 100.0 0.2 -0.2 125.7 0.5 2.3 249.7 0.6 3.0 318.3 0.0 0.9 202.8 0.1 1.6
May 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.1 100.1 0.1 0.1 125.9 0.2 2.5 250.4 0.3 3.3 318.7 0.1 1.1 203.1 0.1 1.7
Jun 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.4 100.0 -0.1 0.4 125.9 0.0 2.9 250.5 0.0 3.6 318.3 -0.1 1.2 202.9 -0.1 1.9
Updated
Next
Release
Sep 11
Aug CPI (Sep 28)
Sep 20
Sep CPI (Oct 16)
Sep 13
Sep CPI (Oct 11)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y)
Chart 7: UK CPI
2.5
2.0
'Core'
1.5
1.0
Headline
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Ex Food and Energy
-2.0
-2.5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Core inflation was flat on the month in July, below our expectation
of a 0.1% m/m rise. This caused the annual rate to fall further into
negative territory, to -0.3% y/y. The US-style core CPI fell 0.1% on
the month versus our expectation of no change. We expect core
inflation to remain at the -0.3% level in August.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
Inflation fell back to 2.5% y/y in August, partially undoing the
increase to 2.6% y/y in July. The falls, like the increases the month
before, were broad based, suggesting that any talk of building
inflationary pressure is premature.
Catherine Colebrook 20 September 2012
Market Mover
34
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