MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Japan UK Sweden Core CPI SA Core CPI NSA Headline CPI RPI CPI CPIF Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y 2010 100.0 - -1.0 100.0 - -1.0 114.5 - 3.3 223.6 - 4.6 302.5 - 1.2 194.6 - 2.0 2011 99.8 - -0.3 99.8 - -0.3 119.6 - 4.5 235.2 - 5.2 311.4 - 3.0 197.3 - 1.4 2012 (1) 99.8 - 0.0 99.8 - 0.0 122.9 - 2.8 242.6 - 3.2 314.9 - 1.1 199.5 - 1.1 Q3 2011 99.8 - 0.2 99.9 - 0.2 120.1 - 4.7 236.2 - 5.2 311.9 - 3.3 197.2 - 1.6 Q4 2011 99.6 - -0.2 99.7 - -0.2 121.3 - 4.6 238.6 - 5.1 314.1 - 2.7 198.2 - 0.9 Q1 2012 99.9 - 0.1 99.6 - 0.1 121.7 - 3.5 239.6 - 3.7 313.5 - 1.8 198.1 - 1.0 Q2 2012 99.8 - 0.0 99.9 - 0.0 122.7 - 2.8 242.2 - 3.1 315.1 - 1.1 199.4 - 1.0 Q3 2012 (1) 99.6 - -0.2 99.7 - -0.2 123.0 - 2.4 243.1 - 2.9 314.0 - 0.7 199.2 - 1.0 Q4 2012 (1) 99.8 - 0.2 99.9 - 0.2 124.2 - 2.5 245.6 - 2.9 317.0 - 0.9 201.2 - 1.5 Q1 2013 (1) 99.9 - 0.0 99.6 - 0.0 124.7 - 2.4 247.1 - 3.1 316.7 - 1.0 201.5 - 1.7 Q2 2013 (1) 99.9 - 0.1 100.0 - 0.1 125.8 - 2.6 250.2 - 3.3 318.4 - 1.1 202.9 - 1.7 Jan-12 99.7 0.1 -0.1 99.3 -0.3 -0.1 121.1 -0.5 3.6 238.0 -0.6 3.9 311.9 -0.9 1.9 196.9 -0.7 0.9 Feb-12 99.9 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.2 0.1 121.8 0.6 3.4 239.9 0.8 3.7 313.9 0.7 1.9 198.3 0.7 1.1 Mar-12 100.0 0.1 0.2 100.0 0.5 0.3 122.2 0.3 3.5 240.8 0.4 3.6 314.8 0.3 1.5 199.1 0.4 1.1 Apr-12 100.1 0.1 0.2 100.2 0.2 0.2 122.9 0.6 3.0 242.5 0.7 3.5 315.5 0.2 1.3 199.6 0.3 1.0 May-12 99.8 -0.3 -0.1 100.0 -0.2 -0.1 122.8 -0.1 2.8 242.4 0.0 3.1 315.2 -0.1 1.0 199.6 0.0 0.9 Jun-12 99.5 -0.3 -0.2 99.6 -0.4 -0.2 122.3 -0.4 2.4 241.8 -0.2 2.8 314.5 -0.2 1.0 199.1 -0.3 0.9 Jul-12 99.5 0.0 -0.3 99.5 -0.1 -0.3 122.5 0.1 2.6 242.1 0.1 3.2 313.2 -0.4 0.7 198.3 -0.4 0.8 Aug 12 (1) 99.5 0.0 -0.3 99.6 0.1 -0.3 123.1 0.5 2.5 243.0 0.4 2.9 313.6 0.1 0.7 198.6 0.1 0.9 Sep 12 (1) 99.7 0.2 0.0 99.9 0.3 0.0 123.6 0.4 2.3 244.2 0.5 2.6 315.1 0.5 0.6 200.5 1.0 1.2 Oct 12 (1) 99.8 0.1 0.2 100.0 0.1 0.2 123.8 0.2 2.4 244.7 0.2 2.8 316.4 0.4 0.9 200.9 0.2 1.5 Nov 12 (1) 99.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 -0.2 0.2 124.2 0.3 2.5 245.6 0.3 3.0 317.3 0.3 1.0 201.2 0.1 1.4 Dec 12 (1) 99.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0 0.2 124.7 0.4 2.5 246.6 0.4 3.0 317.2 0.0 0.8 201.4 0.1 1.6 Jan 13 (1) 99.9 0.1 0.2 99.5 -0.3 0.2 124.1 -0.5 2.5 245.7 -0.3 3.2 314.8 -0.8 0.9 200.3 -0.6 1.8 Feb 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 124.8 0.5 2.4 247.3 0.6 3.1 317.0 0.7 1.0 201.7 0.7 1.7 Mar 13 (1) 99.8 -0.1 -0.2 99.8 0.3 -0.2 125.1 0.3 2.4 248.2 0.4 3.1 318.2 0.4 1.1 202.6 0.4 1.8 Apr 13 (1) 99.9 0.1 -0.2 100.0 0.2 -0.2 125.7 0.5 2.3 249.7 0.6 3.0 318.3 0.0 0.9 202.8 0.1 1.6 May 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.1 100.1 0.1 0.1 125.9 0.2 2.5 250.4 0.3 3.3 318.7 0.1 1.1 203.1 0.1 1.7 Jun 13 (1) 99.9 0.0 0.4 100.0 -0.1 0.4 125.9 0.0 2.9 250.5 0.0 3.6 318.3 -0.1 1.2 202.9 -0.1 1.9 Updated Next Release Sep 11 Aug CPI (Sep 28) Sep 20 Sep CPI (Oct 16) Sep 13 Sep CPI (Oct 11) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y) Chart 7: UK CPI 2.5 2.0 'Core' 1.5 1.0 Headline 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Ex Food and Energy -2.0 -2.5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Core inflation was flat on the month in July, below our expectation of a 0.1% m/m rise. This caused the annual rate to fall further into negative territory, to -0.3% y/y. The US-style core CPI fell 0.1% on the month versus our expectation of no change. We expect core inflation to remain at the -0.3% level in August. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Inflation fell back to 2.5% y/y in August, partially undoing the increase to 2.6% y/y in July. The falls, like the increases the month before, were broad based, suggesting that any talk of building inflationary pressure is premature. Catherine Colebrook 20 September 2012 Market Mover 34 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Canada Norway Australia CPI Core CPI Headline CPI Core CPI Core Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y 2010 116.5 1.8 115.6 1.7 128.8 2.4 120.1 1.4 172.6 2.8 - 2.8 2011 119.9 2.9 117.5 1.7 130.4 1.3 121.2 1.0 178.4 3.4 - 2.6 2012 (1) 121.8 1.6 119.6 1.8 131.1 0.5 122.7 1.2 181.7 1.8 - 2.1 Q3 2011 120.6 0.2 3.0 118.4 0.4 1.9 130.1 -0.7 1.5 121.2 -0.3 1.1 179.3 0.6 3.5 - - 2.5 Q4 2011 120.2 0.3 2.7 118.2 0.6 2.0 130.5 0.4 0.9 121.8 0.5 1.1 179.3 0.0 3.1 - - 2.6 Q1 2012 121.7 0.5 2.3 119.2 0.2 2.1 131.2 0.5 0.8 122.0 0.1 1.4 179.5 0.1 1.6 - - 2.2 Q2 2012 121.6 0.6 1.6 119.4 0.7 2.0 131.5 0.2 0.4 122.9 0.8 1.1 180.4 0.5 1.2 - - 2.0 Q3 2012 (1) 122.2 -0.1 1.3 119.9 -0.1 1.5 130.5 -0.7 0.4 122.6 -0.3 1.1 182.2 1.0 1.6 - - 2.3 Q4 2012 (1) 122.2 0.3 1.3 120.3 0.6 1.5 131.3 0.6 0.6 123.3 0.6 1.2 183.3 0.6 2.2 - - 2.2 Q1 2013 (1) 124.0 0.8 1.7 121.6 0.6 1.9 131.8 0.4 0.4 123.5 0.2 1.3 184.8 0.9 3.0 2.4 Q2 2013 (1) 124.8 1.2 2.2 121.9 0.7 1.9 133.0 0.9 1.2 124.8 1.0 1.6 185.7 0.4 2.9 2.5 Updated Next Release Sep 19 Aug CPI (Sep 21) Sep 10 Sep CPI (Oct 10) Jul 25 Q3 CPI (Oct 24) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 8: Canadian Headline vs. Core CPI (% y/y) Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 BoC Mid-Point Inflation Target BoC CPI Core (% y/y) CPI Total (% y/y) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (% y/y) Headline CPI Underlying CPI BNPP Fcast -1.0 Q193 Q195 Q197 Q199 Q101 Q103 Q105 Q107 Q109 Q111 Q113 Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Core inflation in Canada has fallen back after peaking in February, while wage growth is below the inflation rate. There is, therefore, little pressure on the Bank of Canada to change its policy stance. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Inflation continued to moderate in Q2, with the decline to 1.2% y/y marking the second consecutive downside surprise – the market had expected inflation of 1.3% y/y. Our forecast is for a gradual acceleration in both core and headline inflation this year. CPI Data Calendar for the Coming Week Day GMT Economy Indicator Previous BNPP Forecast Consensus Wed 26/09 12:00 Germany CPI (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 12:00 CPI (Prel) y/y : Sep 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 12:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 12:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Sep 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% Thu 27/09 09:15 Belgium CPI m/m : Sep 0.4% 0.0% n/a 09:15 CPI y/y : Sep 2.9% 2.6% n/a 23:30 Japan CPI National y/y : Aug -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% 23:30 CPI Tokyo y/y : Sep -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% Fri 28/09 07:00 Spain HICP Flash y/y : Sep 2.7% 3.6% n/a 09:00 Eurozone HICP (Flash) y/y : Sep 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 09:00 Italy CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Sep 0.4% -0.3% n/a 09:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Sep 3.2% 2.9% n/a 09:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.2% 1.5% n/a 09:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Sep 3.5% 2.8% n/a Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Catherine Colebrook 20 September 2012 Market Mover 35 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: Spain set to present its new budget
Page 5 and 6: The methodology All of the above in
Page 7 and 8: Ireland: What to Expect When You Ar
Page 9 and 10: Spain: Inching Closer to a Request
Page 11 and 12: UK Inflation: No Pressure • UK in
Page 13 and 14: US Housing: New Channels for Policy
Page 15 and 16: Japan: The Eastern Fiscal Cliff •
Page 17 and 18: an agreement that all budget-relate
Page 19 and 20: This section is classified as non-o
Page 33: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 43 and 44: Economic Calendar: 21 - 28 Sep (con
Page 45 and 46: Key Data Preview Chart 1: UK Cumula
Page 47 and 48: Key Data Preview Chart 5: German He
Page 49 and 50: Key Data Preview Chart 9: German ES
Page 51 and 52: Key Data Preview Chart 13: Japanese
Page 53 and 54: Key Data Preview 7000 6500 6000 550
Page 55 and 56: Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar
Page 57 and 58: Central Bank Watch Interest Rate EU
Page 61: For Production and Distribution, pl

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