MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Economic Calendar: 21 – 28 Sep (cont) GMT Local Previous Forecast Consensus Fri 28/09 08:00 10:00 Italy PPI m/m : Aug 0.4% 0.3% n/a (cont) 08:00 10:00 PPI y/y : Aug 2.4% 2.4% n/a 09:00 11:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Sep 0.4% -0.3% n/a 09:00 11:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Sep 3.2% 2.9% n/a 09:00 11:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Sep 0.0% 1.5% n/a 09:00 11:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Sep 3.3% 2.8% n/a 08:00 10:00 Norway Retail Sales (sa) m/m : Aug -0.1% 0.8% n/a 08:00 10:00 Retail Sales (nsa) y/y : Aug 2.7% -1.1% n/a 08:00 10:00 Unemployment Rate (nsa) : Sep 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 08:30 10:30 Eurozone Eurocoin : Sep 09:00 11:00 HICP (Flash) y/y : Sep 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 11:00 12:00 ECB's Godeffroy Speaks at Conference in Oporto, Portugal 11:30 13:30 ECB's Asmussen Speaks in Berlin 09:30 11:30 Switzerland KoF Leading Indicator : Sep 1.57 10:00 11:00 Portugal Retail Sales y/y : Aug -7.9% -8.4% n/a 12:30 08:30 Canada GDP (monthly) m/m : Jul 0.2% 0.2% n/a 12:30 08:30 US Personal Income m/m : Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 08:30 Personal Spending m/m : Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 13:45 09:45 Chicago PMI : Sep 53.0 52.3 53.1 13:55 09:55 Michigan Sentiment (Final) : Sep 79.2 (p) 78.0 78.8 During 24-28/09 UK Nationwide House Prices Index m/m : Sep 1.3% Week Nationwide House Prices Index y/y : Sep -0.7% 24-30/09 Germany Import Prices m/m : Aug 0.7% Import Prices y/y : Aug 1.2% Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Market Economics 20 September 2012 Market Mover 44 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Key Data Preview Chart 1: UK Cumulative PSNB (GBP bn) 180 160 2008 2009 2010 140 120 2011 2012 100 80 60 40 20 0 April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sources: Reuters EcoWin Pro Aug (f) July June May PSNB (ex interventions) 15.5 0.6 14.6 18.5 BNP Paribas Forecast: Better, but Only a Bit UK: Public sector (August) Release Date: Friday 21 September The recent figures for UK public finances have been disappointing. In July, the monthly public finances posted a GBP 0.6bn deficit, despite it normally being a bumper month for corporation- and income-tax receipts. Over the four months of the 2012/13 fiscal year to July, the deficit was GBP 9bn more than it was a year earlier, despite the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting borrowing for the full fiscal year at GBP 120bn, down from GBP 126bn in 2011/12. Revisions and time issues could still markedly improve the deficit picture this year, but it appears that the weak cyclical position is also taking its toll. In the August data, we are expecting some of the weakness in tax receipts to unwind, though the underlying picture will still look a trifle worrying. Key Point: The August data should look okay, but the trend is not so encouraging. Sources: Reuters EcoWin Pro Chart 2: Canadian Inflation m/m % Aug (f) Jul Jun May Headline CPI 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 Bank of Canada Core -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 BNP Paribas Forecast: Missing the Target Canada: CPI (August) Release Date: Friday 21 September Food and energy prices likely increased in August, which is expected to drive headline CPI higher on a m/m basis; however, due to base effects, the y/y pace of inflation is expected to be close to 1.1%. Meanwhile, core prices are expected to post another negative number with the y/y pace of core inflation likely to move significantly lower (from 1.7% in July to our expected 1.2% in August). The underlying pace of economic growth, wages and inflation has been weak as of late, which leaves little underlying pressure on the BoC to worry about inflation running above their 2% target (see chart). Given our current subdued GDP growth trajectory, we believe there is little reason for the BoC to be concerned with the current inflation outlook, and we expect the BoC to leave interest rates unchanged for some time. Key Point: Despite a likely monthly increase in food and energy prices, underlying price pressures are absent, taking any pressure off the BoC to raise interest rates anytime soon. Market Economics 20 September 2012 Market Mover 45 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: Spain set to present its new budget
Page 5 and 6: The methodology All of the above in
Page 7 and 8: Ireland: What to Expect When You Ar
Page 9 and 10: Spain: Inching Closer to a Request
Page 11 and 12: UK Inflation: No Pressure • UK in
Page 13 and 14: US Housing: New Channels for Policy
Page 15 and 16: Japan: The Eastern Fiscal Cliff •
Page 17 and 18: an agreement that all budget-relate
Page 19 and 20: This section is classified as non-o
Page 33 and 34: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 35 and 36: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 43: Economic Calendar: 21 - 28 Sep (con
Page 47 and 48: Key Data Preview Chart 5: German He
Page 49 and 50: Key Data Preview Chart 9: German ES
Page 51 and 52: Key Data Preview Chart 13: Japanese
Page 53 and 54: Key Data Preview 7000 6500 6000 550
Page 55 and 56: Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar
Page 57 and 58: Central Bank Watch Interest Rate EU
Page 61: For Production and Distribution, pl

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