MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
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Economic Forecasts<br />
GDP<br />
Year 2012<br />
(% y/y) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)<br />
US 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.7<br />
Eurozone 1.5 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5<br />
Japan -0.8 2.2 0.6 2.9 3.2 1.5 1.3<br />
World (2) 4.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9<br />
Industrial Production<br />
Year<br />
2012<br />
(% y/y) ’11 ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)<br />
US 4.1 3.7 2.3 4.4 4.8 3.3 2.3<br />
Eurozone 3.5 -2.3 0.3 -1.7 -2.4 -3.5 -1.7<br />
Japan -2.4 0.2 0.8 4.7 5.3 -3.6 -4.3<br />
Unemployment Rate<br />
Year<br />
2012<br />
(%) ’11 ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)<br />
US 9.0 8.2 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1<br />
Eurozone 10.2 11.4 12.2 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8<br />
Japan 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2<br />
CPI<br />
Year<br />
2012<br />
(% y/y) ’11 ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)<br />
US 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.7 2.1<br />
Eurozone 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5<br />
Japan (Core) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2<br />
Current Account<br />
Year<br />
Budget Bal<br />
Year<br />
(% GDP) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1) (% GDP) ’11 (1) ’12 (1) ’13 (1)<br />
US -3.0 -2.8 -2.2 -8.7 -7.4 -6.3<br />
Eurozone 0.0 0.9 1.4 -4.1 -3.3 -2.4<br />
Japan 2.0 1.2 1.0 -9.7 -8.3 -7.2<br />
Interest Rate Forecasts<br />
Year<br />
2012<br />
(%) ’11 ’12 (1) ’13 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 (1) Q4 (1)<br />
US<br />
Fed Funds Rate 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25<br />
3-month Rate 0.58 0.40 0.40 0.47 0.46 0.38 0.40<br />
2-year yield 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.34 0.31 0.26 0.25<br />
10-year yield 1.88 2.00 2.95 2.21 1.64 1.81 2.00<br />
2y/10y Spread (bp) 163 175 270 188 134 155 175<br />
Eurozone<br />
Refinancing Rate 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.50<br />
3-month Rate 1.36 0.05 0.05 0.78 0.65 0.24 0.05<br />
2-year yield (5) 0.14 0.10 0.45 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.10<br />
10-year yield (5) 1.83 1.45 2.00 1.81 1.60 1.64 1.45<br />
2y/10y Spread (bp) (5) 169 135 155 159 147 156 135<br />
Japan<br />
O/N Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10<br />
3-month Rate 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35<br />
2-year yield 0.14 0.10 0.15 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10<br />
10-year yield 0.99 0.70 1.00 0.99 0.84 0.80 0.70<br />
2y/10y Spread (bp) 85 60 85 87 74 70 60<br />
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) <strong>BNP</strong>P estimates based on country weights in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update<br />
October 2011 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated (5) German benchmark<br />
Source: <strong>BNP</strong> Paribas<br />
Market Economics 20 September 2012<br />
Market Mover<br />
58<br />
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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