4.4 Calculating the remaining flexibility of projectsBased on the reduction lists and due dates, it was possible <strong>to</strong> illustrate how the due dates of the items on thereduction list expire on a time scale. Quality assurance reports were typically delivered a few months prior <strong>to</strong> thefinal decision in parliament <strong>to</strong> go ahead with the projects. The time span of the projects are equal <strong>to</strong> the time fromthe date of the quality assurance report, until the planned delivery date of the final project result. To perform thecalculations, the time span of each of the projects was divided in<strong>to</strong> quarters of years. For each quarter, the value ofthe still open items on the reduction list was calculated as percentage of the <strong>to</strong>tal project budget. Remainingflexibility of the project decreased each time a due date for an item on the reduction list passed. This value can beseen as an indication of the remaining flexibility, or room <strong>to</strong> maneuver. It was possible <strong>to</strong> perform such calculationsfor 19 of the projects. The shortest of these projects had duration of 1 year, the longest 10 years and average was 4.1years.Table 6 shows values of the remaining flexibility for each quarter of the projects. The value is presented as average,maximum, minimum and standard deviation, for each quarter. In this table, all projects are analyzed (and usuallyapproved by parliament) at year number 0. In reality, all projects did not begin at the same time, but in a sequence,usually independent of each other. As the number of projects decrease in the right column, this indicates that theprojects reach their completion. When the number of projects drops from 19 <strong>to</strong> 16 between year one and two, thismeans that the three shortest of the projects only had duration of less than two years. Only one project had durationover 7 years. The average remaining flexibility drops sharply during the first year of the projects, from almost six <strong>to</strong>less than two percent. After 6 years, none of the projects had any remaining items on their reduction lists. Only threeprojects had such long duration.Year Average St.dev Max Min N0 5,9 % 5,0 % 18,2 % 0,2 % 191 1,8 % 2,1 % 7,4 % 0,0 % 192 1,2 % 2,1 % 7,4 % 0,0 % 163 1,0 % 1,7 % 5,2 % 0,0 % 124 1,0 % 1,5 % 3,8 % 0,0 % 105 0,3 % 0,5 % 1,2 % 0,0 % 76 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 37 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 18 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 19 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 110 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 1Table 6. The size of the reduction lists as percentage of <strong>to</strong>tal budget at the end of each year of the project tinespan, beginning from the date when consultants supplied their reports, and ending when the projects aredelivered.To achieve a uniform presentation of the projects, regardless of their duration, the time scale was then converted <strong>to</strong>percentages of time span. Thus, all projects begin at 0% on the time scale. At this point, the initial remainingflexibility is represented by a full reduction list (on average 5.9%, the same as for year 0). The projects werecompleted at the 100% mark on the time scale, which in reality varied from a little more than one year <strong>to</strong> ten years,with an average of 4.1 years. At 50%, all projects were halfway between the delivery of the quality assurance reportand their planned finish date. At this stage, the average project had open items on the reduction list equivalent <strong>to</strong>0.8% (and 3,4% at the most) of the <strong>to</strong>tal budget. Table 7 shows remaining flexibility presented as average,maximum, minimum and standard deviation on the uniform time scale.12
Percent ofproject onSize of remaining items on reduction liststime scale Average St.dev Max Min0 % 5,9 % 5,0 % 18,2 % 0,2 %10 % 5,2 % 4,9 % 18,2 % 0,0 %20 % 2,9 % 4,0 % 17,2 % 0,0 %30 % 1,7 % 1,8 % 5,7 % 0,0 %40 % 1,5 % 1,7 % 5,4 % 0,0 %50 % 0,8 % 1,2 % 3,4 % 0,0 %60 % 0,4 % 0,9 % 3,4 % 0,0 %70 % 0,3 % 0,8 % 3,4 % 0,0 %80 % 0,2 % 0,8 % 3,4 % 0,0 %90 % 0,1 % 0,3 % 1,2 % 0,0 %100 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 %Table 7. The size of the reduction lists as percentage of <strong>to</strong>tal budget at different phases of the projects,beginning from the date when consultants supplied their reports, and ending when the projects are delivered.N=194.5 ReservesIt is also a part of the consultants’ assignment <strong>to</strong> recommend a budget for the project. The projects are typicallyassigned a budget which consists of the expected cost including expected extras. In addition, reserves were allocated<strong>to</strong> the investments in order <strong>to</strong> avoid the need for additional funding. The intention with the allocated reserves was <strong>to</strong>mitigate project risks that could not be fully predictedCostSubjectiveprobabilityPercentage of <strong>to</strong>talallocated budgetP85P50ReductionlistsReservesExpectedadditionalcost100%92%(N=30)8%(N=45)94%(N=30)85%(N=20)BasicbudgetManagedby agencyManagedby PMFigure 2. Project budget and reserves13
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Preface and AcknowledgementsThe wor
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Table of ContentsPreface and Acknow
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Paper OverviewThe following papers
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AbstractTraditionally, projects ten
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alternative use. There are indicati
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1. Introduction1. IntroductionThis
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1. IntroductionFlexible projects ar
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3. Flexibility in different project
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6. Project flexibility categorisati
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6. Project flexibility categorisati
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- Page 61 and 62: ReferencesAbbot, A. & Banerji, K. 2
- Page 63 and 64: Gareis, R. 2004. Maturity of the Pr
- Page 65 and 66: Miller, R. & Lessard, D. 2000. The
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uncertainty. External flexibility c
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5.2. Flexibility in decision proces
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Degree of redundancySlackPrecisionC