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Link to thesis - Concept - NTNU

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N.O.E. Olsson / International Journal of Project Management 24 (2006) 66–74 67discussed by Karlsen [7]. Real options are an establishedperspective on project flexibility with roots in financialoptions theory; see for example Brennan and Trigeorgis[8]. In this perspective, the value of flexibility can bequantified in monetary terms. Amram and Kulatilaka[9] compare flexibility <strong>to</strong> owning an option – the right,but not the obligation <strong>to</strong> take an action in the future.According <strong>to</strong> the real-options paradigm, uncertaintycan increase the value of a project, as long as flexibilityis preserved and resources are not irreversiblycommitted.Mandelbaum and Buzacott [10] uses the number ofthe remaining alternatives after a decision has been takenas a measure of flexibility. In a similar manner asMidler [2], Eikeland [11] discusses project flexibility related<strong>to</strong> ‘‘room for manoeuvring’’. The ‘‘room formanoeuvring’’ is made up by future yet undeterminedinternal decisions, and may also be seen as a measuremen<strong>to</strong>f internal uncertainty of the project. According<strong>to</strong> Eikeland [11], a decision is within the room formanoeuvring if it does not violate the consequences ofprevious decisions. Terms like adaptability and robustnessare often used when discussing issues related <strong>to</strong>what this paper calls flexibility. Flexibility may also bedescribed as a way of making irreversible decision morereversible or postponing irreversible decisions until moreinformation is available. Husby et al. [12] defines projectflexibility as ‘‘the capability <strong>to</strong> adjust the project <strong>to</strong> prospectiveconsequences of uncertain circumstances withinthe context of the project’’. The use of the term flexibilityin this paper is based on this definition.2.1. Flexibility in the process and the productThe capability of projects <strong>to</strong> adjust can be related <strong>to</strong>how the projects are executed and <strong>to</strong> how adaptable thefinal product will be, once it has been produced. Flexibilityin the decision process is based on an approachwhere decisions and commitments in the projects aremade sequentially over episodes.Three strategies <strong>to</strong> achieve flexibility in the decisionprocess may be identified. Firstly, a ‘‘late locking’’ ofproject concepts, specifications and organisation canbe used, as discussed by Miller and Lessard [5]. Millerand Lessard refer <strong>to</strong> late locking as an exploring, iterativefront-end process. They claim that late locking isas key success criteria for large engineering projects.Once the projects are locked, they are executed in a traditionalway. The second strategy is related <strong>to</strong> a continuousstep-by-step locking of the project by a successivecommitment <strong>to</strong> projects. This may be achieved by theuse of decision gates models, as shown by Eskerodand Östergren [13] or by incremental decision making,as advocated by Genus [14]. The third strategy is foundin contingency planning, where a set of base plans is defined,but also a set of alternative plans that can be activatedif needed. According <strong>to</strong> Chapman and Ward [15],contingency plans reflect anticipated potential departuresfrom the defined plans for a project. Contingencyplans are alternative plans that can be used if the baselineplans cannot be executed. Chapman and Wardpoint out that it is important <strong>to</strong> restrict the developmen<strong>to</strong>f detailed contingency plans in order <strong>to</strong> reduce planningcost.Flexibility in the product is achieved when the finalproduct of the project is prepared for alternative use.As described by Brand [16] and Blakkstad [17], this approach<strong>to</strong> flexibility is used in building construction.According <strong>to</strong> Arge and Landstad [18], a commonly usedclassification of building adaptability was made in Swedenduring the 1960s and 1970s. Based on this classification,generality is the ability of the building <strong>to</strong> meetshifting demands without physical changes. In this terminology,flexibility is the possibility for constructionand technical changes with minimum cost and disturbance.Finally, elasticity means the potential for increasingor reducing the size of the building. In this paper, allthese three characteristics are summarised as flexibilityin the product.2.2. Interaction between flexibility in the decision processand the productFlexibility in the decision process and the productmay interact for any given project. The real options approachtreats flexibility in the decision process and theproduct relatively similar. However, from a projectmanagement point of view, it makes a major differenceif the flexibility lies in the product or the decision process.Different strategies for project flexibility managementare identified in Fig. 1, each characterised byhigh or low flexibility in the process and product,respectively.As indicated in Fig. 1, the situation with low flexibilityin both the product and the decision process assumes stableenvironments. This does not necessarily mean thatthe environments are actually stable. It only means thatthe project concept and the management of the projectFlexibility in the productHighLowRobustconceptStableenvironmentFlowLate orcontinouslocking,ContingencyplanningLow HighFlexibility in the processFig. 1. Flexibility in the product and the decision process.

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