Impact Analysis of Railway Projects in a Flexibility Perspective 567reductions for these two projects. This appears not <strong>to</strong> be a unique Norwegiansituation, but related <strong>to</strong> single-track traffic in general. Challenges related <strong>to</strong> partialdouble-track traffic in Sweden are documented by Lindfeldt (2001).A major investment such as the Gardermoen line was given priority for acomplete redesign of timetables in order <strong>to</strong> utilize the new infrastructure. Timetableson the other integrated investment, the Østfold line, have also been adjusted<strong>to</strong> utilize the new infrastructure. The two integrated projects achieved a momentumin construction, as well as in the timetabling <strong>to</strong> achieve desirable travel times.In addition, both the Gradermoen and Østfold projects consist of new doubletracks connected <strong>to</strong> the double-track network around Oslo, even though both arelocated on the present end of this double-track system, with single tracks continuingfurther away from Oslo. Note that the size of the investment also matters. Theintegrated investments are larger than the section-by-section investments.If a section-by-section approach has disadvantages related <strong>to</strong> the realization ofbenefits, it appears <strong>to</strong> provide cost control. Even taking in<strong>to</strong> account the 33%overrun for the individual sections on the Vestfold line, the integrated investmentshave higher overruns that the section-by-section based ones. Cost overrunson mega-projects are documented by Flyvbjerg et al. (2003), showing that this isnot a unique Norwegian issue.Table 8 summarizes the impressions from the case studies. This paper arguesthat major improvements of traffic-related benefits for integrated projects are aconsequence of investment size, adjusted timetables and location related <strong>to</strong> adouble-track system.A real options approach <strong>to</strong> railway investment aims at maximizing the cost–benefit ratio by sequenced decisions, continuously using updated information.This study questions the possibilities <strong>to</strong> achieve reliable information related <strong>to</strong>benefits. The effects of made investments are not materialized until the combinedinvestment on a line reaches a certain level. Dividing an investment in<strong>to</strong> a seriesof sections, decided upon individually, may therefore result in lower benefits interms of, for example, travel time compared with an integrated project approach.As a consequence, a flexibility option (<strong>to</strong> sequence the decision process) mayreduce the benefit potential. A real options approach emphasizes the value offlexibility options. This study indicates that a cost, or a reduction of benefits,should be included in calculations of flexibility value. These results are alsocontrary <strong>to</strong> common understanding in the project management field, where flexibilityusually is seen as a means of achieving increased benefit from a project, asdescribed by Olsson (2004).One question that arises is if relatively limited investments shall be evaluatedbased on the actual reduction in travel time, or rather the potential travel time. Newsections by themselves cannot provide reduced travel time unless the new infrastructureis integrated in the complete timetable, which may include interactionTable 8.Observed impact from the studied project strategiesActual project approachDevelopment in numberof travellers comparedwith beforeTrain traffic comparedwith beforeCostSection by section small changes moderate improvements controlIntegrated major increase major improvements overruns
568 N. O. E. Olsson et al.with a wide range of train services and lines. As mentioned, this is a major differencecompared with road investments. As an alternative ex-post evaluation andcomparison between ex-ante and ex-post, all railways related investments in agiven part of the railway system could be evaluated as a whole with certainintervals, e.g. every 5 years.ConclusionsKey success criteria for travel time reductions from railway investments appear <strong>to</strong>be the combination of infrastructure development and acceptance for timetableadjustments. Investments executed as integrated projects appear <strong>to</strong> be more likely<strong>to</strong> achieve such acceptance for timetable adjustments compared with investmentsbuilt and decided upon section by section. A critical mass of potential improvementis needed <strong>to</strong> justify a timetable change that uses new infrastructure. Incontrast, sequenced decisions appear <strong>to</strong> provide a better cost control comparedwith integrated projects. Regarding the location of railway constructions, thisstudy particularly points <strong>to</strong> difficulties in realizing travel time reductions whenthere are single tracks on both sides of the new lines, and the train traffic alsopasses through an area with high-capacity utilization. In such a situation, extensionof double tracks seems <strong>to</strong> be more likely <strong>to</strong> realize expected travel timereductions.This study indicates a need <strong>to</strong> make it clear in the ex-ante project description offuture investment projects that the estimates for travel time, frequency, punctualityand number of travellers are dependent on appropriate timetable adjustments.Such a practice would give a higher accuracy of the project descriptions. To stateexplicitly the relation between timetable adjustments and the realization ofinvestment benefit can contribute <strong>to</strong> a tighter coordination between investmentand timetable planning.AcknowledgementsThe author thanks the Norwegian National Rail Administration and NSB AS forproviding access <strong>to</strong> staff and information related <strong>to</strong> the studied projects. Thevaluable comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated.ReferencesAspengren, N. C. (1999) Fra Roa til Bergen His<strong>to</strong>rien om Bergensbanen (Oslo: Baneforlaget).Berg, P., Stene, E. A., Fon, A. M., Kvarsvik, T., Bye, B., Aksnes, L., Hallquist, Ø. and Pedersen, P. (1998)Gjennomgang av investeringer i samferdselssek<strong>to</strong>rene, Rapport fra en arbeidsgruppe med deltakelse fraFinansdepartementet, Samferdselsdepartementet, Jernbaneverket, Vegdirek<strong>to</strong>ratet og Luftfartsverket, Prosjektetfor styring av statlige investeringer (Oslo: Department of Finance).Bergendahl, G. (2002) Real optionsanalys för vägar och järnvägar—en tillämpning på projektet Citytunneln iMalmö. Available at: http://www.sika-institute.seBrennan, M. L. and Trigeorgis, L. (2000) Project Flexibility, Agency, and Competition: New Developments inthe Theory and Application of Real Options (New York, NY: Oxford University Press).Bruzelius, N., Jensen, A. and Sjöstedt, L. (1993) Svensk järnvägspolitik. En kritisk granskning (S<strong>to</strong>ckholm:SNS).Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (2003) Megaprojects and Risk. An Ana<strong>to</strong>my of Ambition(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S. L. (2004) What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructureprojects?, Transport Reviews, 24(1), pp. 3–18.
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Gareis, R. 2004. Maturity of the Pr
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Miller, R. & Lessard, D. 2000. The
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