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Link to thesis - Concept - NTNU

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568 N. O. E. Olsson et al.with a wide range of train services and lines. As mentioned, this is a major differencecompared with road investments. As an alternative ex-post evaluation andcomparison between ex-ante and ex-post, all railways related investments in agiven part of the railway system could be evaluated as a whole with certainintervals, e.g. every 5 years.ConclusionsKey success criteria for travel time reductions from railway investments appear <strong>to</strong>be the combination of infrastructure development and acceptance for timetableadjustments. Investments executed as integrated projects appear <strong>to</strong> be more likely<strong>to</strong> achieve such acceptance for timetable adjustments compared with investmentsbuilt and decided upon section by section. A critical mass of potential improvementis needed <strong>to</strong> justify a timetable change that uses new infrastructure. Incontrast, sequenced decisions appear <strong>to</strong> provide a better cost control comparedwith integrated projects. Regarding the location of railway constructions, thisstudy particularly points <strong>to</strong> difficulties in realizing travel time reductions whenthere are single tracks on both sides of the new lines, and the train traffic alsopasses through an area with high-capacity utilization. In such a situation, extensionof double tracks seems <strong>to</strong> be more likely <strong>to</strong> realize expected travel timereductions.This study indicates a need <strong>to</strong> make it clear in the ex-ante project description offuture investment projects that the estimates for travel time, frequency, punctualityand number of travellers are dependent on appropriate timetable adjustments.Such a practice would give a higher accuracy of the project descriptions. To stateexplicitly the relation between timetable adjustments and the realization ofinvestment benefit can contribute <strong>to</strong> a tighter coordination between investmentand timetable planning.AcknowledgementsThe author thanks the Norwegian National Rail Administration and NSB AS forproviding access <strong>to</strong> staff and information related <strong>to</strong> the studied projects. Thevaluable comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated.ReferencesAspengren, N. C. (1999) Fra Roa til Bergen His<strong>to</strong>rien om Bergensbanen (Oslo: Baneforlaget).Berg, P., Stene, E. A., Fon, A. M., Kvarsvik, T., Bye, B., Aksnes, L., Hallquist, Ø. and Pedersen, P. (1998)Gjennomgang av investeringer i samferdselssek<strong>to</strong>rene, Rapport fra en arbeidsgruppe med deltakelse fraFinansdepartementet, Samferdselsdepartementet, Jernbaneverket, Vegdirek<strong>to</strong>ratet og Luftfartsverket, Prosjektetfor styring av statlige investeringer (Oslo: Department of Finance).Bergendahl, G. (2002) Real optionsanalys för vägar och järnvägar—en tillämpning på projektet Citytunneln iMalmö. Available at: http://www.sika-institute.seBrennan, M. L. and Trigeorgis, L. (2000) Project Flexibility, Agency, and Competition: New Developments inthe Theory and Application of Real Options (New York, NY: Oxford University Press).Bruzelius, N., Jensen, A. and Sjöstedt, L. (1993) Svensk järnvägspolitik. En kritisk granskning (S<strong>to</strong>ckholm:SNS).Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (2003) Megaprojects and Risk. An Ana<strong>to</strong>my of Ambition(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S. L. (2004) What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructureprojects?, Transport Reviews, 24(1), pp. 3–18.

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