Report of the Tiger Task Force - PRS

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TIGER TASK FORCE REPORT JOINING THE DOTS ■conducted from November 2005, will be done usingthis evolved methodology (see chart: The variousstages of the monitoring protocol).However, as many details will have to be refined,for instance, in terms of analysis of the datacollected, the Tiger Task Force recommends thateven as the work on estimation proceeds using thisnew methodology, the Project Tiger directorateshould set up a scientific expert group immediatelywith expertise in relevant technical disciplines suchas wildlife management, population and communityecology, statistics and remote sensing for overseeingthe process. This group should work from the veryinception of the process and assist in suggestingappropriate ways of analysing and interpreting thedata. This expert group should in fact be funded toenable its members to engage in data analysis as wellas do other research relevant to further developmentof the methodology.Overseeing tiger and tiger habitat assessmentWhile the Project Tiger directorate and WildlifeInstitute of India programme would be a majorcomponent of the needed effort at assessing tigerpopulations and tiger habitat, a great deal more needsto be done. For instance, we need to know muchmore about the various parasites and diseasesafflicting tigers and in part, shared with othercarnivores. We should understand the implicationsof provision of water sources in the dry season thatmodify the natural patterns of dispersal of tiger prey.We also need to quantify the extent of impact ofvillages inside, in contrast to those on the peripheryof tiger reserves. We need to figure out how muchTHE VARIOUS STAGES OF THE MONITORING PROTOCOLPHASE ITiger/carnivore sign surveyUngulate encounter rateHabitat qualityBeat level sampling(10-20 sq km)Occupancy and relative abundanceSpatio-temporal monitoringPHASE IILandscape complex characterisation(remotely sensed and attribute data in GIS)Modelling patterns underlying tiger occupancy, sourcepopulation and connectivityPHASE IIIStratified sampling based on Phase I and II for:1. Tiger density (capture-recapture framework)2. Ungulate density (distance sampling)Convert indices to density and numbersPHASE IVIntensive monitoring of source populations —a) Photo IDsb) Radio telemetryc) Sign surveys — three-monthlyThe way ahead 75
■ JOINING THE DOTS TIGER TASK FORCE REPORTConsultations to review methodologyThe fourth term of reference of the Tiger Task Force is tosuggest measures to improve the methodology of tigercounting and forecasting.The Task Force assessed and evaluated the nationaltiger estimation methodology developed by the ProjectTiger directorate and the Wildlife Institute of India (WII)in this regard.In order to ensure that all views, comments andcriticisms were taken note of, the Task Force did thefollowing:1. It held a consultation in Delhi, in May 2005,inviting all the prominent experts and scientistsworking on population estimations in the country. Thedeliberations included a presentation from Y V Jhala ofthe WII on the proposed methodology that the Institutewas developing with the Project Tiger directorate, aswell as a presentation by Ullas Karanth on themethodology used by him. Rajesh Gopal, director,Project Tiger, explained the rationale and sciencebehind the proposed methodology and the progressmade so far.2. The Task Force then sent the technical noteprepared on the methodology to all concernedscientists, inviting written comments and suggestions(see Annexure VI: Experts requested to comment onmethodology for tiger estimation).3. A second consultation was held in Bangalore inJune 2005 to discuss the methodology with a furthergroup of scientists and field managers.4. The written comments received were thendiscussed with scientists at the WII and with thedirector, Project Tiger.5. A member of the Task Force, Madhav Gadgil, wasentrusted with the responsibility to assess themethodology and to resolve all the comments receivedfrom experts. It must be noted that Gadgil is a renownedfield statistician, with a PhD in mathematical ecologyfrom Harvard University, USA. He has worked for manyyears on population estimation of animals, beginningwith the first elephant census in 1978. Since then, hisinterests have continued in this area and his papershave been published in almost all peer-reviewedscientific journals, including five in the very prestigiousProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences(PNAS). H S Panwar, former director, Project Tiger andWII, with years of experience in practising conservationand with a background in population estimation, alsovetted the methodology.6. Madhav Gadgil spent time further discussing themethods of statistical analysis with the scientistsconcerned. After these rounds of deliberation and beingsatisfied with the proposed methodology, the TaskForce has decided to endorse the approach and torecommend the director Project Tiger to proceed withthe use of the methodology in the coming census.7. The Tiger Task Force is also recommending thateven as the work on estimation proceeds using thisnew approach, the Project Tiger directorate shouldset up a scientific expert group immediately withexpertise in relevant technical disciplines such aswildlife management, population and communityecology, statistics, and remote sensing to overseethe process from its inception. This will help theprocess to be dynamic and science-based and thelearning can be incorporated into the analysis on anongoing basis.In the discussions with Project Tiger directorateand WII the different comments received were broadlycategorised and carefully reviewed. The comments andthe responses of Project Tiger and WII are as follows:1. Relating to misunderstanding arising out of text:Critique: Tenacity to follow only pugmark-basedpopulation estimation.Response: Tiger signs (including pugmark) is used fordetermining spatial occupancy and relative signdensity. We are not promoting the pugmark method butusing a range of methods for absolute density estimationin stratified representative units. Instead, we are usingmark-recapture framework througha. Camera trap-based identificationb. Refined, digitised pugmark-based identificationc. DNA-based identificationrevenue flows from wildlife tourism and howfeasible it is to direct some of it towardsecodevelopment efforts. Evidently, a great deal ofresearch needs to be undertaken on a diversity ofthemes by a variety of individuals and agencies.This extensive effort cannot be undertaken solelyby the in-house agencies of forest departments. Infact, the positions of research officers have lainvacant in a majority of tiger reserves and littlerelevant scientific work has been accomplished. Nor76 The way ahead
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THE REPORT OF THE TIGER TASK FORCEJ
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ContentsIntroductionExecutive summa
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IntroductionThe Tiger Task Force wa
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TIGER TASK FORCE REPORT JOINING THE
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04Action plan for changeKey recomme
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05References
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