Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

RUSSIAN LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: RESURGENT AND DIVERSIFIEDthat look at the future of conflict still see conflict as being mostly of aglobal and a regional nature. Some authors see next-generation conflictin an ever more tightly interconnected world as inherently global: ‘Wecan foresee that seventh-generation warfare will certainly transcendthe operational or even strategic scale and will immediately acquire aplanetary scale. One can already see today that such contactless wars ofthe next, the seventh generation will still not be carried out only by meansof information, and will not be against a particular opponent. Usingnetworks and resources, the aggressor may provoke man-made disastersin major economic areas, regions and parts of the world’. 128Others vacillate between the idea that the likelihood of global conflictseems to have decreased, and the fact that global dangers still remain:‘The threat of global conflict has been reduced to a minimum. The systemof international relations provides an unprecedented level of mutualcontrol and confidence in the military sphere. However, major countriesnot only refuse to part from arsenals that clearly exceed the level of selfdefense,but on the contrary, are constantly improving them, includingoffensive weapons. The use of diplomatic methods, strict adherence touniversally recognized principles and norms of international law still didnot become the dominant trend in dealing with international security’. 129Regional conflicts have been coded most frequently in this dataset. Theyfocus on both very specific regions and on regional conflicts in general:‘The major threat to humanity today comes from regional conflicts inAsia, involving nuclear powers, resulting in humanity teetering on thebrink between peace and war’. 130With respect to the US, Vidoevich writes: ‘It is very likely that the UnitedStates will seek to increase its military superiority in comparison with128 Vladimir Slipchenko, ‘Informacionnoe protivoborstvo v beskontaktnyh vojnah’ [InformationConfrontation in Non-Contact Wars], Obozrevatel’ [Columnist], no. 12, Voenno-politicheskieproblemy [Military-Political Issues] (2001), http://www.rau.su/observer/N12_01/12_09.HTM.129 S.А. Kaganov, ed., Mir vokrug Rossii: 2017. Kontury nedalekogo budushhego [The WorldAround Russia: 2017. Contours of the Nearest Future] (Moscow: Council on Foreign andDefense Policy, 2007), http://spkurdyumov.narod.ru/Karaganov.pdf.130 Aleksander Neklesa, ‘Upravljaemyj haos: dvizhenie k nestancionnoj sisteme mirovyh svjazej’[Manageable Chaos: Movement Towards a Non-Stationary System of World Connections], 2004,http://www.intelros.org/books/opera_selecta/opera_selecta_28.pdf.HCSS Report 101