Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ANNEx A – QUOTES DRIVERSDemographic Factors‘Several factors will dramatically alter the global social structure tapestry. Theseinclude continued devolution of old states, globalization of economic interests,continued widespread immigration, and formation of social groups based oncommon ideology that is ubiquitously communicated around the world. Ascendancesof powerful groups that are not geographically defined have already begun to alterlarge-scale social interactions. They also will impact contests of will between suchgroups thus leading to a change the nature of warfare. Specifically, these conflictsmay be dominated by non-violent, but imposing means, such as information oreconomic intimidation’. 250‘Low population growth will have several effects with long-term political andstrategic implications, including a rapid aging of the population in nearly allEuropean countries and the decline of Europe’s population relative to other parts ofthe world. Immigration, which is partly a consequence of these demographic trends,will result in more diverse populations in many countries and is associated withpolitical and social tensions and the rise of extreme-right parties’. 251‘At one end is the view that the trend towards a ‘world of warriors-in which muchof the youthful population of the less economically-developed world is involved inethnic, religious or tribal conflict-naturally creates more brutal forms of warfare inwhich the international laws of war are rarely observed’. 252‘The future portends an even more lethal strain of perturbation. A stud y sponsoredby the National Intelligence Council argued that ‘lagging economies, ethnicaffiliations, intense religious convictions and youth bulges will align to create a‘ perfect storm ‘ for internal conflict’ in the near future. Other analysts point outthat Iraq’s insurgents and jihadist foreign fighters will benefit from their educationin Iraq, and will SOOI1 return home or to alternative battle space with greatermotivation, lethal skills and credibility’. 253‘Populations increase geometrically as behavior lags technology. These population250 Alexander, ‘The Changing Nature of Warfare, the Factors Mediating Future Conflict, andImplications for Sof.’251 Coker, The Future of War: The Re-Enchantment of War in the Twenty-First Century.252 Schneider and Grinter, Battlefield of the Future: 21st Century Warfare Issues, 126.253 Coker, The Future of War: The Re-Enchantment of War in the Twenty-First Century, 177-178.200 Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century