Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

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FUTURE NATURE OF CONFLICT PROjECT OVERVIEWgain a better understanding of the bandwidth of views about the futurenature of conflict. These views are analyzed along different dimensions,such as actors, aims, domains, means – who, why, where, how?; as wellas salience, length, extensiveness, distinctiveness – how often, how long,how widespread, how distinct? The various definitions of conflict acrossthe language domains were also mapped.Box - Key Objectives of the Future Nature of Conflict Project• Create a database of various perspectives on the future nature ofconflict across Arabic, Chinese, English and Russian language domains.• Analyze and compare perspectives on the future nature of conflictacross language domains.• Develop policy relevant insights in the future nature of conflict forsecurity and defense practitioners, researchers and the general public.• Provide a platform for global, cross-language strategic dialogue.This study seeks to better inform decision makers from government andindustry in preparing for the challenges of the future conflict environment.It has a modular setup: the results presented here can be built uponin order to gain a better insight in the future nature of conflict. Thedatabase that was created can be re-used in subsequent studies and fordifferent purposes, including educational ones. It can also be augmentedby adding additional sources, other language domains or new codingschemes. HCSS will examine whether the database can be made publiclyaccessible for other researchers, thus possibly ‘crowd sourcing’ its furtherdevelopment.This study describes the research protocol, findings and conclusions of theFuture Nature of Conflict Project. Chapter 2 offers an in depth descriptionof the HCSS Metafore protocol. Chapters 3 through 6 provide in depthassessments of prevailing views on the future nature of conflict in theChinese, English, Russian and Arabic language domains respectively.Chapter 7 presents a big picture overview of the global debate at thebeginning of the 21 st century, in addition to putting the various languagespecific views side to side in a cross language comparison. Chapter 8,14Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century
FUTURE NATURE OF CONFLICT PROjECT OVERVIEWfinally, recapitulates the key findings and briefly outlines in general termssome of the challenges faced by our security and defense establishmentsas a result of the changes in the nature of conflict described in theprevious chapters.Box - FundingThe Future Nature of Conflict project is funded by:• The Dutch Ministry of Defence;• the joint TNO / HCSS Strategy and Change Programme, and• the HCSS Security Foresight Programme.HCSS Report 15
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Page 4 and 5: The Hague Centre for Strategic Stud
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of ContentsT
Page 9: TABLE OF FIGURESTable of FiguresFig
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Page 18 and 19: THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe studies th
Page 20: THE METAFORE PROTOCOLnumber of esta
Page 23 and 24: THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.3 Collection
Page 25 and 26: THE METAFORE PROTOCOLholds that the
Page 27 and 28: THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Parameters
Page 29 and 30: THE METAFORE PROTOCOLImpetus for Co
Page 31 and 32: THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Climate Ch
Page 33 and 34: THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe HCSS team
Page 35 and 36: THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.5 CogitateOn
Page 37 and 38: CHINESE LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: TRAD
Page 61 and 62: ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
Page 63 and 64: ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
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ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
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RUSSIAN LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: RESU
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ARABIC LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: POOR
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVES7
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESb
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESn
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESP
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESa
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESP
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVEST
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESG
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CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVES
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CONCLUSION: WHAT DO WE TAkE AWAy FR
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BIBLIOGRAPHyBibliographyAbasee, Dr.
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BIBLIOGRAPHyAqud, Ibrahim. 'Alsra
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BIBLIOGRAPHyBlack, Jeremy. War and
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BIBLIOGRAPHyCliff, Roger, Mark Burl
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BIBLIOGRAPHyDobrolyubov, Yaroslav.
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'Fiscal Year 2009 Depar
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BIBLIOGRAPHy———. 'Informacion
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'The Changing Nature of
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BIBLIOGRAPHyVojtolovskij, Fedor. 'N
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BIBLIOGRAPHyWinnefeld, James A., Ma
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'Information Superiorit
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSAnnex A - Q
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbe interdep
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstandards o
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbattlefield
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘For exam
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSStrategic R
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwill be uti
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwithin 100
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘By all m
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘In reali
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstrengthene
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSworld syste
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ANNEx B - LIST OF STUDIES INCLUDED
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The Hague Centrefor Strategic Studi
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