Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

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ARABIC LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: POOR AND PRESENTISTmean for the region and without much autonomous reflection upon it.In the latter cases (and only in those), the HCSS team did include thedocuments in the set but just coded the authentic sections.Given the importance of the region for conflict (coupled with ourintuition – based on the observation that Arab groups like Al-Qaedaor Hamas clearly have long-term strategic goals that they pursue withconsiderable tenacity and dexterity – that there must be at least sometraces of long-term strategic thinking in writing, even if they may not bein the sources we are accustomed to in other regions), the HCSS teamdecided to cast its nets more widely. Besides government publicationsand scholarly articles, we therefore also included smaller pieces by thinktanks, opinion pieces in newspapers, expert magazines, interesting blogentries, etc.Despite this extra effort, our analytical harvest remained limited. Wefound no noteworthy publications on the future of conflict conductedby think tanks, military experts, or government agencies. Out of a totalnumber of 50 documents, 33 were extracted from newspapers, ten fromonline magazines, and seven from various websites. In most cases thesources are not well-known and/or cannot be assessed to their expertquality. We therefore decided not to insert the more quantitative data inthis final report, although the data are available from HCSS upon request.6.2 Some Musings on the Arab Security Foresight PuzzleGiven the disappointing results of our meta-analysis of the Arab foresightliterature, the HCSS team decided to delve a bit more deeply into thisissue. Why is there so little foresight in the Arab world in general, and onsecurity issues in specific?Foresight in the Arab worldEven a cursory look at the global foresight landscape clearly illustratesthat the Arab world has no strong tradition in foresight, as it is nowcommonly understood across the globe, even though there are a (small)118 Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century
ARABIC LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: POOR AND PRESENTISTnumber of notable exceptions. 161 In 2008, the Swedish Institute forFutures Studies produced an excellent mind map of various foresightinstitutes across the world 162 , which we present here to illustrate thenumber of serious and dedicated Middle Eastern foresight institutes(12 in total, including 3 in Israel and 8 (!) in Iran), compared to the muchlarger number of serious and dedicated Western European counterparts(see Figure 46).Experts offer a number of explanations for the striking paucity of Arabforesight work. As Wan Fariza Alyati Binti Wan Zakari points out in herFutures Studies in Contemporary Islamic and Western Thought, the oddscurrently are heavily stacked against futures studies in the Arab worldfor powerful religious reasons – mainly because of different concepts oftime (with more of a spiritual than a material connotation) and differentviews on the role of human volition or predestination. 163 She describesthe efforts of a number of scholars to fight the dominant view that ‘thedevelopment of Futures Studies … is considered as foreign and nearlyremain [sic] unfamiliar among the present Muslims’. 164161 For an early overview, see Khair el-Din Haseeb, The Future of the Arab Nation: Challenges andOptions (Centre for Arab Unity Studies, 1991), 499-500. For a more recent (but also morelimited) description, see Wan Fariza Alyati Binti Wan Zakaria, ‘Futures Studies in ContemporaryIslamic and Western Thought: A Critical Study of the Works of Ziauddin Sardar, MahdiElmandjra, Alvin Toffler and Daniel Bell’, 2010, http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/882/1/WanZakaria10PhD_A1a.pdf.. See also ‘About Futures Studies and Research in Egypt and theArab Region’ (Egyptian-Arab Futures Research Association, 2009), http://www.eafra.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=75:ABOUT%20FUTURES%20STUDIES%20AND%20RESEARCH%20%20IN%20EGYPT%20AND%20THE%20ARAB%20REGION&catid=25:%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%20%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9&Itemid=37.162 Samuel Bohman, ‘World Map of the Futures Field: Research, Education, Consultants,Organisations’, 2008, http://www.google.com.ua/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vahidthinktank.com%2FWorldMapoftheFuturesField.pdf&ei=5cpuTayXOcySOurwwfMI&usg=AFQjCNE0dthOTtunMiUbZwlP9PszOC1qzA&sig2=0DyvOBSjwUO3sBXf2jBoNA.163 Wan Zakaria, ‘Futures Studies in Contemporary Islamic and Western Thought: A Critical Studyof the Works of Ziauddin Sardar, Mahdi Elmandjra, Alvin Toffler and Daniel Bell.’164 Ibid., 200.HCSS Report 119
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Contours of Conflict in the 21 st C
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The Hague Centre for Strategic Stud
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TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of ContentsT
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TABLE OF FIGURESTable of FiguresFig
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12 Contours of Conflict in the 21 s
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FUTURE NATURE OF CONFLICT PROjECT O
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16 Contours of Conflict in the 21 s
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe studies th
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLnumber of esta
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.3 Collection
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLholds that the
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Parameters
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLImpetus for Co
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Climate Ch
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe HCSS team
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.5 CogitateOn
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CHINESE LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: TRAD
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ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
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Page 87 and 88: RUSSIAN LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: RESU
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Page 125 and 126: CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVES7
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Page 143 and 144: CONCLUSION: WHAT DO WE TAkE AWAy FR
Page 149 and 150: BIBLIOGRAPHyBibliographyAbasee, Dr.
Page 151 and 152: BIBLIOGRAPHyAqud, Ibrahim. 'Alsra
Page 153 and 154: BIBLIOGRAPHyBlack, Jeremy. War and
Page 155 and 156: BIBLIOGRAPHyCliff, Roger, Mark Burl
Page 157 and 158: BIBLIOGRAPHyDobrolyubov, Yaroslav.
Page 159 and 160: BIBLIOGRAPHy'Fiscal Year 2009 Depar
Page 161 and 162: BIBLIOGRAPHyHayajani, Dr. Adnan. 'A
Page 163 and 164: BIBLIOGRAPHy'Jywsh almstqbl asghr h
Page 165 and 166: BIBLIOGRAPHyKrippendorff, K. 'Relia
Page 167 and 168: BIBLIOGRAPHyLv, Yousheng. 'Cóng y
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BIBLIOGRAPHyMetz, Steven, and Raymo
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BIBLIOGRAPHyO’Hanlon, Michael E.
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BIBLIOGRAPHyQarguli, Shayma al. 'Al
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BIBLIOGRAPHySadovnichiy, V.A. 'Znan
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BIBLIOGRAPHy———. 'Informacion
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'The Changing Nature of
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BIBLIOGRAPHyVojtolovskij, Fedor. 'N
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BIBLIOGRAPHyWinnefeld, James A., Ma
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'Information Superiorit
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSAnnex A - Q
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbe interdep
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstandards o
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbattlefield
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘For exam
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERScould gener
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSStrategic R
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSincreases l
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwill be uti
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘For exam
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwithin 100
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘By all m
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘In reali
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstrengthene
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSworld syste
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ANNEx B - LIST OF STUDIES INCLUDED
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The Hague Centrefor Strategic Studi
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