Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

CROSS-LANGUAGE DOMAIN PERSPECTIVESof future conflict very often. In fact, it is the least frequently mentionedparameter in the entire set. One does get the distinct impression thatimplicitly, most studies still associate conflict with armed conflict. Thisalso becomes clear in the studies that do define conflict more explicitlyand in which war and militarized inter-state disputes score most highly.The only two studies that explicitly mention a definition leave no doubtat all and just equate conflict with war (although there is quite a bit ofemphasis on what they call contact-less war). The Chinese studies seema little bit ‘softer’, although we do want to emphasize again that thenumbers here are extremely low. Conflict between individuals is notexplicitly addressed at all.DistinctivenessWhile distinctiveness does not receive much attention either, a broadrange of opinion exists with respect to whether future conflicts will havea clearly marked end and beginning. Some consider the beginning andends of future conflicts to be clearly demarcated while others expect thetiming of conflict to be much fuzzier. The Global War on Terror or therecent (possible) cyber conflicts in places like Estonia, Georgia or Iranserve as contemporary examples in case. It may also reflect on the realityof modern, asymmetric conflicts in which actors may be able to win thewar but subsequently lose the peace. In such conflicts, the end of majorcombat operations may not be analogous to ‘mission accomplished’,as one contemporary mistook it for. 175 It is interesting to note that mostlanguage domains see a trend over time towards conflicts that are lessclearly delineated in time.DomainThe domain of future conflict is the single most often mentionedparameter in the entire set, with traditional (land, sea, air) and modern(space and cyber space) military dimensions remaining dominant. Thepolitical and economic domains are receiving an increasing but still small175 See the speech by President G.W Bush in which he declared the end of major combat operationsstanding underneath a ‘Mission Accomplished banner’. See Jarrett Murphy, ‘\uc0\u8217{}Mission Accomplished’ Whodunit. W. House Changes Stories On Much-Mocked Banner AtCarrier Speech’ (CBS News. World, October 29, 2003), http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/10/29/iraq/main580661.shtml.132 Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century