Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

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RUSSIAN LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: RESURGENT AND DIVERSIFIEDand electronic/cyber realm are singled out as important instruments offuture conflict;• Political and economic degradation are seen to be prime aims in futureconflict;• At the same time, differences over value systems are seen as animportant impetus for actors in the future;• Key drivers of conflict are globalization, the role and power of the state,strategic resource distribution and military technology.116 Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century
ARABIC LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: POOR AND PRESENTIST6 Arabic LanguagePerspectives: Poor andPresentist6.1 The State of the FieldIn order to capture the nature of future conflict as documented in theArabic language three rounds of search were conducted, with twodifferent teams (one in Beirut, and one in The Hague), but with exactlythe same collection strategy that was described in the method section ofthis paper and was applied to the other language domains.It became quickly apparent that if we were to apply the same criteria weused for the other language domains to the Arabic subset, we would findvery few (if any) serious foresight studies. The main problems here centeron:• The ‘future’ criterion – given the ferocity of current conflicts in theregion, there appear to be depressingly few truly forward-looking views(although discussions around water-related conflicts represented anexception to this rule). Whereas we observed quite some presentism inthe other language domains as well, this region appears to be mired in aparticularly acute version of it.• The ‘quality’ criterion – it has been noted by many that the tradition ofopen, both policy-oriented and also more theoretical scholarly,discussion about these issues remains embryonic in the broader MiddleEast (with the notable exception of Israel). The debate also tends to beof a much more normative than of an analytical nature. We will turn tothis issue in the next section of this chapter.• The ‘generalizability’ criterion – the overwhelming majority of conflictrelateddocuments are extremely region-specific and rarely attempt tomake general statements about the future of conflict. What little there isin terms of general statements about the nature of conflict in this area,also often is quite derivative – presenting summaries of Westernarguments, with (at best) a very succinct translation to what this mightHCSS Report 117
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Contours of Conflict in the 21 st C
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The Hague Centre for Strategic Stud
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TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of ContentsT
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TABLE OF FIGURESTable of FiguresFig
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12 Contours of Conflict in the 21 s
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FUTURE NATURE OF CONFLICT PROjECT O
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16 Contours of Conflict in the 21 s
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe studies th
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLnumber of esta
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.3 Collection
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLholds that the
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Parameters
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLImpetus for Co
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Climate Ch
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOLThe HCSS team
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THE METAFORE PROTOCOL2.5 CogitateOn
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CHINESE LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: TRAD
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ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
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ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBR
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Page 119 and 120: ARABIC LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: POOR
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Page 143 and 144: CONCLUSION: WHAT DO WE TAkE AWAy FR
Page 149 and 150: BIBLIOGRAPHyBibliographyAbasee, Dr.
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Page 153 and 154: BIBLIOGRAPHyBlack, Jeremy. War and
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BIBLIOGRAPHy———. 'Informacion
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'The Changing Nature of
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BIBLIOGRAPHyVojtolovskij, Fedor. 'N
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BIBLIOGRAPHy'Information Superiorit
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSAnnex A - Q
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbe interdep
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstandards o
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSbattlefield
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘For exam
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERScould gener
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSStrategic R
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSincreases l
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwill be uti
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘For exam
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSwithin 100
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘By all m
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERS‘In reali
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSstrengthene
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ANNEx A - QUOTES DRIVERSworld syste
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ANNEx B - LIST OF STUDIES INCLUDED
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The Hague Centrefor Strategic Studi
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