Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

CHINESE LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: TRADITIONALIST AND MODERNFIGURE 19. DRIVERS IN THE CHINESE LITERATURE3.3 DriversThe Chinese language domain argues that the key drivers of changein the future nature of conflict are: strategic orientation, globalization,international institutions, public involvement and demographic factors.Strategic orientation is an important driver because Chinese authorstend to hold the view that grand strategy determines both the strategic,operational and tactical elements of future warfare doctrines and thedirection of future development of a country’s armed forces. For example,the strategy of deterrence is frequently mentioned by Chinese authorsas a strategy that emphasizes the defensive nature of security policy andwill contribute to peace in the future. 39 The strategy of pursuing absolutesecurity through means of preemption, on the other hand, can negativelyaffect international stability. As a result, Meng believes that ‘countrieswill become more cautious in considering going to war as a means of39 Ya Wang et al., ‘Xūnǐ xiànshí jìshù zài jūnshì lǐngyù de yìngyòng jí duì wèilái zhànzhēng deyǐngxiǎng’ [Reality Simulation Technology in the Military Fields and the Impact on Future War],Guófáng jìshù jīchǔ [Defense Technology Base], no. 5 (2006).56Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century