Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ANNEx A – QUOTES DRIVERSbe interdependent and conflicting at the same time’. 197‘It seems at the first sight that ethnic conflicts in today’s world are driven by factorssuch as religious confrontation and territorial disputes, but after removing thesecovers, we will see that globalization is the fundamental driving force behind all ofthese’. 198Strategic Orientation‘countries will become more cautious in considering going to war as a means ofresolving inter-state conflicts; whereas ‘active defense’, ‘cooperative security’,‘deterrence’, and ‘preventive diplomacy’ will become more popular as strategicoptions for decision-makers’. 199‘Today, countries no longer seek strategic advantage purely through military means.Instead, they are making efforts to increase their comprehensive power in order toobtain a good strategic position in the new century. This leads to a transformationof national defense strategy – defense strategy that centered on military power willbe replaced by new ones that emphasize all aspects of military, politics, economics,technology, and culture’. 200‘The ‘dam effect’ which is created by the huge gap of power will make the hawkishpoliticians in the United States more assertive. They will forcefully promoteAmerican views and moral standards across the globe under the protection ofpromoting human rights. ‘Those who support me will prosper, and those are againstme will die’. Tempted by profits, the ambition of the hegemon to dominate the worldwill be further enhanced. In an era of peace and development, the ease of spring willbe clouded, the danger of war increased’. 201‘The trend of future conflict will… encourage countries to seek the enhancementof military alliance or security cooperation and to increase their capacity of197 Zhang and Wang, ‘21 Shìjì: Shì zhànzhēng, háishì hépíng’ [21st Century: War or Peace?], 7-8.198 Zhao, ‘Quánqiú huà: 21 Shìjì guójì chōngtú de zhǔdǎo yīnsù’ [Globalization: The Main Factor inWorld Conflicts in the 21st Century], 17.199 Meng, ‘Gāo jìshù tiáojiàn xià zhànzhēng yǔ hépíng de xīn tèdiǎn’ [Features of Future War andPeace in a High-Tech Environment], 10.200 Zhang and Wang, ‘21 Shìjì: Shì zhànzhēng, háishì hépíng’ [21st Century: War or Peace?], 30.201 Ibid., 7-8.HCSS Report 189