Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ANNEx A – QUOTES DRIVERS‘For example, an acceleration in deleterious climate change is likely to spur arenewed focus on territorial issues, as states compete violently to control scarceresources in a context of demographic expansion’. 274‘As with the loss of soil through deforestation and inappropriate agriculturalregimes it will cause enforced migrations which will in turn interact with volatiledomestic divisions. For example, concern about water supplies will exacerbaterelations between groups practicing different forms of agriculture. There will beclaims that minority groups are responsible for the contamination or depletion ofenvironmental resources, as with the high rates of water use by Jewish settlementson the West Bank of the Jordan’. 275‘Such transnational environmental problems cannot be solved by traditionalnational military means, but certainly will become new sources of tension and interstatearmed conflicts. Just as environment has the potential to trigger conflicts, italso will be used as a weapon in future conflicts ,to wage a kind of ‘environmentalwarfare’. 276Geographic Factors‘A number of key trends on the regional and global level will also drive the natureof conflict and the strategic environment toward the year 2025. These key driversinclude the search for strategic weight through new military technologies andstrategies, growing economic dimensions of security and regional geo-politics, theerosion of traditional distinctions between the Middle Eastern and adjacent securityenvironments as a result of ‘reach’ and spillovers, unresolved regional frictions andthreats to the territorial status quo, new security geometries (alignments), and therole of extra regional powers—above all the United States’. 277‘In large part, potential enemies no longer strive to match American military powersymmetrically. Instead they are building military and paramilitary capabilities toenable them to fight asymmetrically. They might take advantage of seams betweencomponents, counter mass with agility, and hide in urban areas, difficult terrain, or274 Ibid., 178.275 Ibid., 40-41.276 Malik, ‘The Sources and Nature of Future Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific Region.’277 William A. Owens, ‘The Once and Future Revolution in Military Affairs’ (JFQ, 2002), http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/1131.pdf.HCSS Report 205