Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

THE METAFORE PROTOCOLAim in Conflict – What are the key goals in future conflict?• Physical degradation (destroy or weaken)• Obtaining, retaining, or occupying territory• Economic or political degradation• Stabilization• Survival (i.e. outlast opponent(s))Definition - How is conflict defined in the study?• Between individuals• Political-economic tensions• Tensions between non-state actors• Militarized inter-state disputes• WarDistinctiveness – How distinctively can the start and end points of futureconflicts be discerned?• Low (diffused)• Leans Low• Medium• Leans High• High (Punctuated)Domain – What is the primary arena in which future conflict maymanifests itself?• Traditional military dimensions (land, sea, air)• Modern military dimensions (space, cyberspace)• Political dimension• Economic dimension• Human terrain (mental, moral, psychological dimension)Extensiveness of Conflict – What is the geographic scale of the areawhere the impact of future conflict is thought to be concentrated?• Global (e.g. World War II)• Regional (e.g. Balkan conflicts in 1990s)• Sub-regional (e.g. conflicts in West Africa)• National (in one entire country)• Domestic (confined to a certain subsection of a country domesticpolity)28Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century