Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ANNEx A – QUOTES DRIVERSlocales where mass becomes a liability’. 278‘The United States and Taiwan may confront an even more fundamental strategicdilemma, one inherent in the basic geography of the situation. This geographicasymmetry—Taiwan lies close to China and very far from the United States—combined with China’s growing capabilities and the lack of basing options for U.S.forces in the vicinity of the strait, call into question Washington’s ability to crediblyserve as guarantor of Taiwan’s security in the future’. 279Urbanization‘Today, dense urban terrain provides similar safe-havens to the urban guerrilla orterrorist where the density of population, transportation networks, public servicesand infrastructure, and structures gives him multiple avenues of escape and theability to hide while planning and rehearsing operations. The density of the urbancomplex provides sufficient cover and ‘noise’ to mask the adversary’s preparationand attack position’. 280‘Urbanization also continues unabated. By 2030 over three fifths of the world’speople will live in cities. This growth is accompanied by degradation of the physicalenvironment. The mounting stress on the world’s water supplies, deforestation,desertification and the erosion of farmland are particularly troubling. These, in turn,fuel further urbanization and migrations. So far, attempts by governments to controland manage the adverse effects of these trends have proven ineffective.17 Should thiscontinue— and everything suggests it will—the competition for resources, whetherarable land, water, or capital, can provide a foundation for future conflicts’. 281The World’s population is predicted to rise to over 8.3 billion by 2029, drivingincreased demands for resources, with 60% urbanised and six billion living278 David A. Shlapak, ‘A Question of BalancePolitical Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute’ (RAND, 2009), http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf.279 Frank G. Hoffman, Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars (Arlington, VA:Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2007), https://dde.carlisle.army.mil/documents/sis/docs/Hybrid_Wars.pdf.280 Steven Metz and Raymond A. Millen, ‘Future War/Future Battlespace: The Strategic Role ofAmerican Landpower’ (Strategic Studies Institute, 2003), http://www.comw.org/rma/fulltext/0303metz.pdf.281 ‘The Future Character of Conflict.’206 Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century