Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ANNEx A – QUOTES DRIVERSstandards of workers, the deterioration of the international financial system will leadto instability on national development. Competition for raw materials will becomethe fuse of war between some countries’. 207Demographic Factors‘The role of the size of population will decrease in future conflicts, whereas thequality of population will be much more decisive in the future’. 208‘On future battlefields of information, knowledge will become the main element of amilitary’s fighting potential. Future confrontations will be particularly characterizedby a competition of talents and human resources. Therefore, it is critical to nurtureand create well-educated and high-quality people’. 209‘Future wars are not only wars between militaries, but more importantly, arecompetition for talents and knowledge. The country which has more well-educatedpeople and more advanced technology will win on future battlefields’. 210Proliferation of WMDs‘Proliferation of nuclear weapons is also closely connected with wars. The worldwill be in an early stage of a new cycle of nuclear proliferation. It is becomingeasier and easier to obtain the technology of manufacturing nuclear weapons,which is closely associated with the spread of civilian nuclear technologies. Asmore countries develop their civilian nuclear programs, more countries willbecome capable of obtaining the materials and technologies for producing nuclearweapons… As more countries obtain nuclear weapons, the chances of nuclearconflicts will increase accordingly’. 211‘As more countries carry out nuclear tests, the probability of nuclear proliferation207 Qian and Zhou, ‘Wèilái zhànzhēng bàofā de fēi jūnshì yīnsù’ [Non-Military Factors in theOutbreak of Future Wars], 17.208 Lin, ‘Guānyú wèilái zhànzhēng zhōng ‘rén de yīnsù’ de sīkǎo’ [Thoughts on the Human Factorin Future Warfare], 19.209 Liu, ‘Guānyú xìnxī jìshù yǔ wèilái zhànzhēng ruògān wèntí de sīkǎo’ [Some Thoughts onInformation Technology and Future War], 51.210 Qian and Zhou, ‘Wèilái zhànzhēng bàofā de fēi jūnshì yīnsù’ [Non-Military Factors in theOutbreak of Future Wars], 14.211 Ibid., 17.HCSS Report 191