Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERSPECTIVES: VIBRANT AND ETHNOCENTRICIn general, the military studies have recently shown strong interest inthis particular parameter of ‘agency’ (‘who’ will engage in conflict).Unsurprisingly, states and coalitions of states continue to be seen asplaying a major role in future conflict. Alliance-based conflicts do notfeature prominently in the English foresight discourse as compared todyadic conflicts or those involving non-state actors. This is especiallystriking in the US literature. Interest for coalitional warfare seems tobe decreasing in general, but military studies do retain a strong interestin it. If coalitional conflict is addressed, it is expected to emerge fromthe polarization of the world system into two or more blocs caused bya swiftly changing power dynamics. As Malik notes with respect to thesecurity environment in Asia: ‘A dramatic change in the balance ofpower could be the likely cause of conflict. Such a conflict most likely willbe waged by a coalition of states’. 59 However, the actor spectrum willundoubtedly be broadened with the entrance of non-state actors on theconflict stage. Future conflicts, according to Anon, will ‘involve state vnon-state groups (a tribe, a crime cartel, an insurgent network, a terroristgroup, a private military company, a corporation), and non-state groups vother non-state groups’. 60Non-state actors have been no stranger to conflict in the past. One onlyhas to think of the fourteenth century condottieri (literal translation:‘contractors’) and their successors that either fought in the employ ofprinces or otherwise roamed the European countryside looking for bootyup till the Treaty of Westphalia. 61 In modern times, the capabilities of nonstate actors have gained renewed vigor as a result of rapid technologicaldevelopments. As contended by Riper and Scales: ‘Such groups arefar from a historical novelty, but their potential access to sophisticatedmilitary technology is unprecedented. They will remain among the mostdifficult military problems confronting us’. 6259 J. Mohan Malik, ‘The Sources and Nature of Future Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific Region,’Comparative Strategy 16, no. 1 (1997): 33-65.60 ‘Imagining the 21st Century: Conflict’ (The Strategist, 2009), http://kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist/2009/06/influences-conflict.html.61 Michael Eliot Howard, War in European History (Oxford University Press, 1976).62 Paul Van Riper and Robert H. Scales, ‘Preparing for War in the 21st Century,’ Parameters(1997): 4-14.66Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century