Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century

THE METAFORE PROTOCOL• Economic means (e.g. economic sanctions or blockade)• Electronic / cyber means (e.g. cyber attacks on government sites)• Information / psychological means (e.g. spread of false information)Salience – How much conflict will there be in the future?• Low• Leans Low• Medium• Leans High• HighDrivers – what is likely to drive change in future conflict• Globalization – The extent to which increasing interconnectednessof peoples, economies, and cultures drives and shapes conflict.• Strategic Resource Distribution – The extent to which availabilityof key resources (food, water, minerals, energy, etc.) via possession oraccess drives and shapes conflict.• Nature of Future Military Technology – The extent to which theorientation of future military means drives and shapes conflict.• Public Involvement – The extent to which public involvement (e.g.,supporting, condemning, or participating) drives and shapes conflict.• Strategic Orientation – The ways in which national strategic viewsand cultures drive and shape conflict.• International Arms Control Norms – The extent to which conflictmay be regulated by international arms control agreements.• International Institutions – The extent to which internationalorganizations have the ability to regulate conflict.• Wealth Distribution – The extent to which wealth distribution acrosssubsets of the global population drives and shapes conflict.• Demographic Factors – The extent to which population characteristicsdrive and shape conflict.• Urbanization – The extent to which urbanization drives and shapesthe nature of conflict.• Geographic Factors – The extent to which geographic factors driveand shape conflict.• Role and Power of the State – The ways in which the role and powerof the state – both at a national and an international level – drives andshapes conflict.30Contours of Conflict in the 21 st Century