Situation analySiS

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Situation analySiS of Children in uganda 20152 the countrycontextThis chapter describes the social, economic and demographic factors that underpinchildren’s rights in Uganda. In doing so, it provides an account of the Government’s effortsand abilities to reduce income poverty, while introducing key policy challenges, particularlyin relation to regional differences and inequity.2.1 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC ANDDEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS2.1.1 Economic growthUganda has made significant economic progress in the last two decades, with an annualgrowth rate in GDP between 1992 and 2011 of 7.1%. However, between 2011 and 2012,GDP fell to 3.2% due to high population growth, a decrease in export performance and highinflation (AfDB et al., 2013). Projected growth for 2014–15 is 6.2% but requires strong publicinvestment by the government (World Bank, 2015). Economic and social developmentreveals a mixed picture. The African Development Bank (AfDB) projected real GDP growthat 5.2% in 2013 and 6.6% in 2014. However, the Bank’s Economic Outlook observes thatan unfavourable investment climate for the private sector and public sector constraintscontinue to hamper economic growth (AfDB et al., 2013).Economic growth also remains challenged by demographic factors and non-productivepopulations. More than half of Uganda’s population (56%) is under 18 years of age and thelargest percentage of this age group is aged between 0 and 4 years. Of these 0–4-year-olds,55% are deprived in at least two poverty dimensions, while 38% of those aged 6–17 live inpoverty. According to a situation analysis of child poverty and deprivation, 24% of childrenaged 0–4 and 18% of children aged 6–18 years can be characterised as living in extremepoverty, experiencing extreme deprivation (MoGLSD et al., 2014).FIGURE 2: trends inpopulAtion AndproJected populAtionuntil 2030source: un/desA, 201222thE CoUNtry CoNtExt
Situation analySiS of Children in uganda 20152.1.2 Income povertyThe Government has made great strides in reducing the proportion of the population livingon a low income, from 56% in 1992/93 to 19.7% in 2013/14, achieving the MDG target ofhalving the proportion of its population living in extreme poverty by 2015 (World Bank,2015) However, income inequality is increasing and 22% of children (4.4 million) still livein income-poor households. Recent assessments show increasing incidences of chronicpoverty from 2009–11 and an increasing vulnerability to poverty (Ssewanyana and Kasirye,2012), with around 10% of households categorised as being in chronic poverty (i.e. povertyover multiple years). Furthermore, 70% of those who escaped poverty were simply replacedby households that fell into poverty.In addition, while poverty is spread across the country, there are big disparities acrossthe regions. Karamoja has by far the highest rates of poverty, with 75% of householdsliving below the official poverty line and eight out of 10 households in the lowest quintileof wealth (UBoS and ICF International, 2012). Table 1 presents the Gini coefficients overthe last decades showing that between 2005 and 2013, income inequality increased at thenational level from a coefficient of 0.41 to 0.40 (UBoS and ICF International, 2012) and thento 0.39 in 2012/13 (UBOS, 2014a), with greater income inequality in urban areas than ruralareas. The majority of children (3,655,200, 84%) living in income-poor households residein the Northern and Eastern parts of the country which have 47% and 37% of the country’schildren, respectively (UBOS and ICF International, 2012; see Appendix 2).TABLE 1: income ineQuAlity by reGion: Gini coefficient (2005/06–2012/13)2005/06 2009/10 2012/13national 0.408 0.426 0.395regionAlCentral 0.417 0.451 0.392Eastern 0.354 0.319 0.319Northern 0.331 0.367 0.378Western 0.342 0.375 0.328locAtionRural 0.363 0.375 0.341Urban 0.432 0.442 0.410source: ubos And icf internAtionAl, 2012 And ubos, 2014AthE CoUNtry CoNtExt23
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