Lead Manager

SECTION 5
FINANCIAL INFORMATION
5.3.2.3 Sensitivity analysis
The AGAAP pro-forma Forecast has been based on certain economic and business assumptions about future
events.The Forecast is considered to be sensitive to movements in the forecast exchange rate assumptions used.
A summary of the likely impact of movements in these key assumptions on the forecast operating profit before
goodwill amortisation and tax for 2004 and 2005 is set out below.The sensitivity analysis has been prepared on an
annualised basis. It is intended to provide a guide only and variations in actual performance may exceed or be less
than the ranges shown.
Care should be taken in interpreting this information.This analysis treats each movement in isolation from
possible movements in other assumptions, which may not be the case. Movements in one assumption may have
offsetting or compounding effects on other variables, the effects of which are not reflected in the following
analysis. In addition, it is possible that more than one assumption may move at any one point in time, giving rise
to cumulative, or offsetting effects, which also are not reflected in this analysis.
Further, the Group would typically respond to any material adverse change in conditions by taking appropriate
action to minimise, to the extent possible, any adverse effect on profits and dividends.The effect of any such
mitigating action has been excluded from the following analysis.
Sensitivity of forecast operating profit before goodwill amortisation to movements in exchange rates ($ million)
Movement
±1% ±5% ±10%
2004
US Dollar 0.34 1.75 3.70
Euro 0.22 1.16 2.44
British Pound 0.05 0.28 0.58
2005
US Dollar 0.44 2.28 4.82
Euro 0.25 1.32 2.79
British Pound 0.08 0.44 0.92
122