The Economy of Catalonia

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go to Brussels and say that they had decided, by mutual agreement, to constitute two States. The just settlement arising from these negotiations is precisely what would make each State viable. Only in this way, as we see it, is it possible for Catalonia and the rest of Spain to stay in the Eurozone. The same assumptions seem essential to ensure the viability of the financial system of an independent Catalonia. This whole line of reasoning is backed up by the figures and comments in the Appendix to this chapter which is posted on the web site of the Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya (Catalan Association of Economists) in the section devoted to the Catalan Economy Commission. Bibliographical references Cipolla, Carlo M. (1988) «Allegro ma non troppo». Editorial il Mulino, Bologna. House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee (2013) «Foreign policy considerations for the UK and Scotland in the event of Scotland becoming an independent country». Sixth Report of Session 2012–13, Report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence. HC 643. 1 May. http://www. publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/643/643.pdf Lang, K.O. (2013) «Katalonien auf dem Weg in die Unabhängigkeit?», SWP-Aktuell 2013/A 50, August 2013, published in República Catalana, Josep C. Vergés, Editor. Maroto, J.A. (1994) «Estrategias competitivas de las entidades financieras ante el Mercado Único y la Unión Monetaria», Perspectivas del Sistema Financiero, No. 45, page 94. Sagarra, E. (2013) «Nacionalitat catalana, nacionalitat espanyola i ciutadania de la Unió: serien compatibles?» Revista Jurídica de Catalunya, No. 2, pages 297-324. Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2013) «Sixth Report from the Foreign Affairs Committee of Session 2012-13. Foreign policy considerations for the UK and Scotland in the event of Scotland becoming an independent country. Response from the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs», July 2013. Cm 8644. https://www.gov. uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/ 210012/30944_ Cm_8644_Web_Accessible.pdf 114 The Economy of Catalonia
Statistical sources http://www.aebanca.es/cs/groups/public/documents/publicaciones/22-201303229.pdf www.bde.es/f/webbde/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/InformacionInteres/Reestructuracio http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesAnuales/MemoriaSupervisionBancaria/12/MSB_2012.pdf http://www.unacc.com/Portals/0/Otras%20Publicaciones/Libros/ ULTIMA%20HORA-reestructuraci%C3%B3n.pdf CECA: Data on savings banks and savings banks converted into banks www.unacc.com/Portals/0/Anuario/Anuario%202012.pdf Impact of independence on the financial system or more general issues – some references. La intermediación financiera ante la hipótesis de la independencia de Cataluña (Report from Universidad Camilo José Cela) http://estaticos. elmun- do.es/documentos/2012/12/08/analisis.pdf Sistema financiero e independencia (Article from El País referring to the aforementioned report) http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/02/07/opinion/1360253444_043990.html Bloomberg: Catalan Banks Owing ECB $77 Billion May Stall Independence http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-21/catalanbanks-owing-ecb-77-billion-may-stall-independence-drive.html Report by UBS: «Can Catalonia leave? Hardly» http://estatico.vozpopuli. com/upload/Laura_Garcia/ubs-can-catalonia-leave-hardly.pdf Report by JP Morgan: «Catalan challenge asks real questions of Europe» https://mm.jpmorgan.com/EmailPubServlet?h=-7gkbsus&doc= GPS- 971142-0.pdf/ https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scotland-analysis-financial-services-and-banking http://www.coleconomistes.cat/pdf/AnnexCapitol5LlibreEconomiadelaCatalunyaindependent.pdf The financial system of an independent Catalonia. 115
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The Economy of Catalonia Questions
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Oriol Amat, Núria Bosch, Antoni Ca
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Contents Preface to the English Edi
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Preface to the English edition This
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Preface (Translated by Jordi Vilano
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Introduction (Translated by Jordi V
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1 The position of an independent Ca
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United States such as Massachusetts
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2010, Catalonia was in 64th place o
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fact, this combination of factors a
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ilar population to Catalonia and sh
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ence in emerging markets, especiall
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fact, the high proportion of multin
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egion in volume of inward investmen
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mega-regions towards sustainability
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also be confronted with the paradox
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the reasons that are emerging for a
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This 47.1% signifies a considerable
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Estim
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and there would be no need for cuts
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centage of freight between Spain an
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to prevent Spain’s point-blank re
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) The effects on markets, especiall
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speak of the coefficient of central
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Bibliographical references Amat, O.
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Rodríguez Mora, J. V. (2012) «Por
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For the purposes of economic analys
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It should also be recalled that the
Page 60 and 61:
The reasons for regional economic i
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their mind» about European integra
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the Copenhagen criteria, which esta
Page 66 and 67: in the European Economic Area, whic
Page 68 and 69: ing the status of member of the Uni
Page 71 and 72: 3.2. In or out of the European Unio
Page 73 and 74: were to veto the request, experts e
Page 75 and 76: In November 2012, Granell expressed
Page 77 and 78: -The regulatory fragmentation that
Page 79 and 80: would have to find alternative solu
Page 81 and 82: economic shocks, any one of which,
Page 83 and 84: In my opinion, an impartial reading
Page 85 and 86: 4 In or out of the euro 4.1. An ind
Page 87 and 88: Analysis of possible scenarios Scen
Page 89 and 90: official currency and financial ins
Page 91 and 92: nisms and the European interbank pa
Page 93 and 94: arising from the integration of a h
Page 95 and 96: 4.2. In or out ofthe euro: certaint
Page 97 and 98: prevent or limit damage to the mult
Page 99 and 100: Let me make a short comment on the
Page 101 and 102: context of a Spain that leaves the
Page 103: Col·lectiu Wilson (2012) «Europe,
Page 106 and 107: termediation, which is performed by
Page 108 and 109: The Catalan financial system The Ca
Page 110 and 111: Financial institutions with headqua
Page 112 and 113: • The bank was put up for auction
Page 114 and 115: had risen by 16.3%, staff had been
Page 118 and 119: Appendix This article is complement
Page 120 and 121: The Catalan Public Sector in the Eu
Page 122 and 123: 20% 18% 18.8% 16% 16.2% 15.5% 13.6%
Page 124 and 125: 9% 8% 7.9% 7% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5
Page 126 and 127: It is very obvious that Madrid has
Page 128 and 129: Spain Catalonia Generalitat Variati
Page 130 and 131: - Armed Forces: in the form of army
Page 132 and 133: Pérez, F. (DIR), Cucarella, V. and
Page 134 and 135: and to the private sector. Another
Page 136 and 137: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Direct taxes 17
Page 138 and 139: method, that is to say, the expense
Page 140 and 141: itory. The same applies to the prog
Page 142 and 143: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Spanish State e
Page 144 and 145: e obtained. Table 3 shows that the
Page 146 and 147: with the EU in the period 2007-2013
Page 149 and 150: 8 Debt and distribution of assets 2
Page 151 and 152: this study. The difference between
Page 153 and 154: the State’s property and debts on
Page 155 and 156: It may be asked whether the new Cat
Page 157 and 158: The main source of International La
Page 159 and 160: Principles of distribution of asset
Page 161 and 162: Immovable property of the State con
Page 163 and 164: Social Security Reserve Fund On con
Page 165 and 166: Investments according to Additional
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Forecasts Million euros 2007 2008 2
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Possible negotiation scenarios What
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Even if it were only possible to ev
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States that form part of 21st-centu
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Spanish Royal Decree 496/1987, of 1
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Social Security contributions, pens
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ury and its managing agencies (auto
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citizens tend to join the labour ma
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in the economic, social and cultura
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declaration of independence, the bo
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oycott would have a more pronounced
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the will of the people. The great m
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Guinjoan, M. and Cuadras, X. (2011)
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Denmark, Finland, Austria, the Neth
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2012 Company Sector Sales (€m) 1
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Export companies There were 43,176
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Spain, and appreciably more than th
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Conclusions After considering how c
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likely to be in the firing line are
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IDESCAT (2013), based on data from
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the sample represents 20.8% of its
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No opinion Increase the centralisat
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sioners, business people and/or the
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Impact on the Catalan economy In th
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alternative. This is not supported
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More specifically, 94.6% of pension
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37.8% 57.8% 4.4% Yes No opinion No
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fessionally and 47.8% believe it wo
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13 Conclusions: economic certaintie
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having less potential and less per
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Catalonia had been an independent S
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ands and a declining proportion of
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Anton Gasol. Doctor of Economics, f
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The Economy of Catalonia

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