The Economy of Catalonia

In my opinion, an impartial reading of the contributions of the experts
considered here leads us to the following conclusions:
– Catalonia would be born inside the EU unless Spain (or some other
country) were to veto its accession. In the absence of a veto, the negotiation
with the EU should be carried out at the same time as the negotiation
of the terms of independence and would be much easier than
the latter. In this respect, the statements about the slowness of the process
should be seen as part of an intimidating discourse but lacking any
other foundation.
– In the event of a veto, it would be in the interest of both parties (and
particularly all the multinational companies established in Catalonia)
to associate Catalonia with the EU by means of a bilateral treaty, assuring
the maintenance of the free movement of goods, persons and
capital. In this respect, it is noteworthy that the British government
does not take for granted that Scotland would be born in the EU,
but, on the other hand, it does not contemplate the possibility that
the Common Customs Tariff could be applied to the Scots.
Obviously, the probability of Spain’s exercising or not its right to veto
Catalonia can only be appraised subjectively. The doom and gloom
economists believe that there is a high probability, while the denialists
think it would be low. However, the doom and gloom group add that
the veto would have significant economic implications. The cautious
economists have convincingly established that such a deduction has no
legal foundation and that a solution would be found, because doing so
would benefit everyone and harm no one.
To move ahead with the debate, the doom and gloom economists should
adopt a stance with respect to this argument: do they deny that the free
movement of goods, persons and capital could be maintained between
Catalonia and the EU in the event of a veto? And if so, why?
If they do not adopt a position with respect to this point, they would be
abandoning the field of play and, consequently, losing the game.
In or out of the European Union 81