The Economy of Catalonia

Denmark, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, or other States such as
Switzerland. The chief difficulty would be the complex transition period
during which Catalonia would cease to be an autonomous community
of Spain and become a State in its own right.
In this chapter we will try to discover how firms would greet Catalonia’s
transition to statehood. What would be their degree of satisfaction, anxiety
or indifference? And, if they saw it as a major drawback, what would
be the chance of relocations, a fall off in future investment, or the ability
to attract new companies?
To find the answers we must weigh up rational factors based on the impact
on turnover, the profit and loss account and fixed capital investments,
but also the possible effects linked to corporate image or pressure
from the rest of Spain. As already mentioned, emotional factors cannot
be underestimated: not only are they unpredictable in themselves but
they can also give rise to totally unexpected situations.
The process leading to statehood for Catalonia
The process that would lead to Catalonia becoming a separate State is a
key aspect of the present analysis.
There are basically three possible scenarios. In the first, agreement would
be reached with the Spanish central government to allow Catalans to be
consulted about whether they want a State of their own or not. If the
outcome of this democratic consultation were affirmative, both sides
would agree on a transition process so that the handover could take place
in an orderly manner. This is the United Kingdom–Scotland model and
is highly improbable.
In the second possible scenario, no agreement would be reached with
the Spanish central government but some way would be found within
Catalonia to enable a democratic consultation to take place. If the verdict
were clearly positive, the Generalitat (Catalan Parliament) would
proclaim independence. This would generate considerable tension and
the Spanish government would find itself under pressure from international
organisations, the EU, and major Spanish and Catalan multinationals,
as well as facing the operational need to solve the very severe
problems created. This could induce the Spanish govrnment to over-
192 The Economy of Catalonia